Dr. Brad Rosenheim has moved!

#WX fediverse users -

Been stuck in a hotel that has cable for 5 days, so I've been watching the #Weather channel. I have an idea to advance weather programming and general population's understanding of the scientific process, mainly interplay between models and observations. A #MultiSolution if you will.

Just after prime time, why not run a feature on "How did our models do?" Forecasts now involve interpreting complex models into shapes of warning areas. Every night, you can show the warning/forecast areas vs. the actual observations, patting yourselves on the back when the models do well and discussing what changed when the models don't do well. This could be useful for forecasts of severe weather outbreaks, rainfall totals, snowfall amounts, warning and watch areas, and of course tropical cyclone paths and intensities.

#multisolving
#climate
#weather
#ScientificProcess
#forecast

Aug 14, 2023 at 5:14pmWeb
Show threadDr. Brad Rosenheim has moved!Aug 14, 2023

I think there would be wide audience. People who already watch the weather channel would love it. But it would:

1. Provide general knowledge of model physics
2. Show how models improve with more observations, and which observations are most important
3. Provide opportunities to discuss shifts in statistics (for statistical models) due to climate change

All of these benefits would provide more science literacy to a population that is increasingly dependent on science but also illiterate in science, for instance in matters of understanding public health models or longer term climate models.

#WX
#weather
#ScienceLiteracy

Show threadPusher Of Pixels (old account)Aug 14, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim even a post hurricane season follow up show would be intriguing
Show threadBytebro 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇬🇱Aug 14, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim One of the "things I learned" in the UK a few years ago... Several colleagues were sniping about how 'their' weather app/site/whatevs was the best. An older PhD who works with us claimed that the majority all use exactly the same software on exactly the same computers at the University of Exeter - they just adjust their starting parameters/assumptions which results in the divergences. So basically boils down to the old 'garbage in, garbage out' which we all know.
Show threadDr. Brad Rosenheim has moved!Aug 14, 2023
@bytebro I think this is more or less true in the US (a few more models, but not too many). But airing out the garbage that went into it and why would be great! We keep treating forecasts with Crystal balls and then we are surprised when people don't understand how to vaccinate a population or why recurrence intervals for floods don't mean anything anymore. I think if we make less like wizardry and more like a trade that is constantly improving people will love it and they will become better scientists. But there is risk...
Show threadBytebro 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇬🇱Aug 14, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim Yer main problem there I guess would be explaining 'chaotic systems' and 'uncertainties' to Joe public. But yes, I'm sure that a conversation would help *some* people understand.
Show threadMichael PorterAug 14, 2023
@Brad_Rosenheim I like it. I taught a weather unit a long time ago and used newspaper clippings of the five-day forecast, arranged so that the same day of the week lined up. You could see how the forecast for that day changed (or not) as it got closer and uncertainties diminished. It convinced me that 10-day forecasts, at least for my region, were more marketing than science.