“Tech experts are starting to doubt that ChatGPT and A.I. ‘hallucinations’ will ever go away: ‘This isn’t fixable’”

More accurately, AI researchers have always said that this isn’t fixable but y’all were too obsessed with listening to con artists to pay attention but now the con is wearing thin. https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/can-ai-chatgpt-hallucinations-be-fixed-experts-doubt-altman-openai/

Tech experts are starting to doubt that ChatGPT and A.I. ‘hallucinations’ will ever go away: ‘This isn’t fixable’

Experts are starting to doubt it, and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a bit stumped.

Fortune
Getting bombarded with notifications and comments on this post, so I’m muting this thread. Apologies if to all of those who I don’t reply to as a result.
@baldur Well, I guess in a way it’s mirroring real life more than anyone thought.
@baldur I want to believe this con could be winding down soon.
@mhkohne @baldur
The grift-ocurrency nonsense has lasted a lot longer than I thought it would, so it could be a while.
@EFreethought @baldur And that is my fear. That bs has had WAY too long in the sun.
@baldur not sure how anyone expected to solve hallucination in AI when we havent solved it in natural intelligence either.
@arcdrag @baldur also known as "lying" or "being wrong"
@baldur You should see the unblock requests.

@baldur Good to see some down to earth quotes in that article, like how these systems “are designed to make things up. That’s all they do”. I always try to push that ‘hallucinations’ is a bad term because there’s no difference between a ‘hallucination’ and an LLM’s regular generated output - it’s just generating content, the model doesn’t ‘understand’ anything so it can’t understand the concepts of truth or accuracy.

Maybe the output generated for some prompt is accurate, maybe it’s complete nonsense - it’s just chance.

Alex Chaffee (@[email protected])

@[email protected] It occurred to me this morning that for #LLMs at least, the “I” in #AI stands for “improv” Maybe folks would be a little less likely to entrust their life decisions to a machine if they thought of it as an underemployed half-drunk actor trying to impress its buddies by making jokes on stage in a seedy L.A. nightclub.

Ruby.social
@baldur AI researchers have not always said it can’t be fixed. Several prominent researchers such as Yan LeCun at Meta have claimed to know how to fix it while others have published descriptions of attempts to ground LLMs factually in mixed models, most notably MSFT’s attempt to require bing to produce collaborative references.

@baldur Wait - OpenAI is *paying* AP for their content?

Certainly sounds like an admission that they should pay for the rights to copyrighted data.

@baldur <tldr>
language models “are designed to make things up. That’s all they do,”
</tldr>

@baldur

I'll be quietly over here getting my work done 20 times faster with language models while everyone can't figure out if they are good or not.

It's a tool. It speeds up certain workflows I have. It also has weaknesses and introduces new attack vectors and error types. We also have not fully explored what we can do with them yet.

But as a 'search' for certain types of exploration of documents it blows traditional search engines out of the water, and you can stack functions to create more complex output.

Most people should probably daily drive them on non critical projects to understand what they can and can't do.

@BlueBee @baldur it's just the hype cycle. Eventually people will realise it's somewhere in the middle. It won't get rid of whole sectors of the economy but it also can be good when effectively applied.
@jfrench @BlueBee @baldur if by "somewhere in the middle" you mean untrained and untrainable intern accuracy, probably

@RandomDamage @jfrench @baldur

Where are you getting this from? It's extremely capable when it comes to learning about how a library works. Much faster than documentation alone.

I have been saying for a while that chatgpt is a "verisimilitude engine" which has no interest in producing output that is true, only interest in producing output which appears to be true. In some cases, a correct answer is the most true looking answer that it can come up with. On the other hand, often an incorrect answer is the most true looking answer that it can come up with.

A lot of people that claim that it will replace software developers haven't been in the situation where it gives you provably wrong information, so you correct it, so it gives you provably wrong information, so you correct it, so it gives you provably wrong information, so you correct it. I also had a fun situation where I asked it to create a review of Beowulf in the style of beowulf, and it created something that was rhyming which Beowulf does not. I pointed out that Beowulf does not rhyme, and it said that's right Beowulf does not rhyme, so I said create a review of Beowulf in the style of Beowulf that does not run, and it produced a review of beowulf, that rhymed.

@baldur

“bullshit-making machine makes bullshit” is up there with “dog bites man” and “scorpion stings frog” on the list of the least shocking headlines in history 😛

@baldur I'm looking for something that can more accurately (or at least not worse than an actual person) represent and model reality, not bullshit one to me. So much for LLMs

@baldur exactly this:

(Quote from the article):”””
“This isn’t fixable,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor and director of the University of Washington’s Computational Linguistics Laboratory. “It’s inherent in the mismatch between the technology and the proposed use cases.”
“””

It’s like trying to solve the problem that cars don’t provide any nutritional value. The idea of using LLMs to provide detailed factual information is just not tenable. That’s not what they are.

@knbrindle @baldur someone said it’s like observing that my cat is a bad paralegal. The solution is not getting a better cat.
@knbrindle @baldur @robabram
Yep. We had an enquiry at SEN Magazine the other day asking about an article on [very detailed and specific title] written by [name of reputed researcher in that field], but we couldn't find any trace of the article, nor any article by that author. Turns out the enquirer had obtained the 'article' details from ChatGPT, but it was just something that the named author might plausibly have written, and that we might plausibly have published. But hadn't.
@jern I’m still waiting for the first patent application with fantasy cited prior art. Mind you, as hardly any applicants mention any concrete prior art these days, with or without LLM assistance, it could be a long wait.
@robabram Ooh, dangerous. "Applicant acknowledges that [non-existent but innovative technical solution disclosure] forms part of the prior art...
@knbrindle @baldur The problem is right in the name. It's a language model, not a knowledge model.

@mhkohne yup. Which I have to assume is why all the corporate interests are so intent on rebranding it as Artificial Intelligence.

If you can’t meet the expectations, change the definitions.

@baldur huh, people are finally realising llms aren't the answer to everything?
@baldur Yeah. The "hallucinations" emanate from the fundamentals of how LLMs work; they perhaps could be reduced substantially, but it's not realistic to believe they'll ever be eliminated. An AI without this problem will require using a different paradigm from the ground-up.
@baldur "Tech experts" tend to not have a lot of patience.

@baldur One of the best ways to predict the next word is to understand the meaning. In some cases, the AI training is going to produce an internal model that actually does match the meaning because that’s going to earn it reinforcement.

But since we can’t really read out what the AI’s reasoning is, we can only train them more and more and can’t tell when they have hit on the correct internal model, and when they are just making a lot of good guesses via approximations. (Ct’d)

@baldur Or can we? Can we ask hard questions, new questions, that can be answered only if you have the proper model of the underlying problem?

Maybe. But even then, there would be no guarantee that the AI would apply that model to the next question, and not some other rule of thumb that it has learned based on some other word in our next question about the “same” topic.

@baldur Using Icecat with LibreJS I got this: "To keep your Google Account secure, try signing in on a browser that has JavaScript turned on." 😀 #google
@baldur calling them “hallucinations” imo just plays into this personification narrative that tech bros are trying to sell. It’s not a bug, it’s been tricked! It’s hallucinations, not just an seemingly-unexpected result from a system that generates seemingly-expected results.
@baldur The sooner people lose trust in this garbage the better off everyone will be.

@baldur I don't know what else people expected from very advanced autocomplete.

At the end of the day, LLMs are just really, really good autocomplete.

Duck that shirt!

@baldur turns out it was fraud all along
@baldur the tech might be fixable in time, the nature of the stockholders likely isn't.
> “This isn’t fixable,” said Emily Bender, a linguistics professor and director of the University of Washington’s Computational Linguistics Laboratory. “It’s inherent in the mismatch between the technology and the proposed use cases.”
@baldur
Nope... It is mathematically probed...
@baldur Crypto, En Eff Tees, now LLMs… each con accelerating more and more until the time that the victims are enthralled by the trick is so infinitesimal that it doesn't work.
@baldur The robots have started dreaming.
@baldur @markgbaxter https://joanna-bryson.blogspot.com/2023/05/generative-ai-is-magic-8-ball-not-agi.html everyone who understands the technology has known that from the beginning. I explained it to a neuroscientist I was on a panel with in one sentence „it’s just a bit of neocortex / associative memory. You’ll never get a brain that way.“ (he understood after the first one iirc :)
Generative AI is a magic 8 ball, not AGI.

artificial and natural intelligence, including politics, policy, ethics and security

@j2bryson it seems the business model relies on people not understanding the technology 😆
@baldur @xerophile For me the LLMs confabulate about as much as my human experts. I was fooled once early on but now I’m pretty good at spotting where it’s gone off the rails. It works well for my purposes.

@baldur Of course the marketing firms say "This machine that makes shit up is the best thing ever!" 🙄

I guess it makes sense that the bullshit industry is going to use the bullshit machine.

@baldur I think experts have always doubted it, but recently we’veheard more from proponents more than we’ve heard from experts. Most people (most of us) are now used to technology following a progressive improvement curve, so the idea that something that seems amazing will never escape a limited domain, and is possibly racing towards a dead end, is hard to fathom.

@baldur

“I probably trust the answers that come out of ChatGPT the least of anybody on Earth,” Altman told the crowd.

Yeah, totally a joke. Right? Right?

*smh* The grift always needs the mark to believe that you can get money for nothing.

@baldur I used to think that finance people were the worst at spotting a grift, but between crypto, "self-driving" cars, and AI, I now think tech people take the cake.
@baldur I mean, what did they expect. Humans can't come to terms over the simplest things. How should an "AI" gain "Universal Knowledge" by learning from humans/ human created data?
@baldur the whole point of it has been to devalue labour and i'm happy to say it fucking sucks ass at it
@PsyChuan @baldur but the next massively hyped enviromnet-destroying human-oppressing super tech will be totally real this time and all the doubters will be humiliated for sure
@baldur this is a real "no shit, Sherlock" thing