Reed MidekeAnd looks someone on twitter notice before I did https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1676274288469606400
Via https://twitter.com/TomBielefeld/status/1676378560250929152 a map with radiation sensors in #Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia (as noted, all looks normal at the moment) https://www.saveecobot.com/en/radiation-maps#11/47.5343/34.6248/gamma+usv
ISW still assesses "Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time" https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National
Good thread from Geoff Brumfiel on the mysterious objects appearing in satellite images of #Ukraine ZNPP turbine halls. Not gonna screenshot the whole thing but tl;dr, they only show up at certain angles (implying smaller, shiny object) and not clear what they are or if actually new https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1676962873975918596
Good reporting on ZNPP from Francis Farrell as well #Ukriane https://kyivindependent.com/on-the-edge-of-disaster-what-could-really-happen-if-russia-destroys-the-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/
On the edge of disaster: What could really happen if Russia destroys Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
In late June, 16 months into the full-scale Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky alerted his nation of an unprecedented threat. Russia, the president said, had rigged the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with explosives, and was ready to set off the charges and cause radiation to leak into surrounding areas.
One thing it doesn't touch on is the state of spent fuel
#Prigozhin / #Wagner saga continues to be bizarre
Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St Petersburg
Peskov, asked about it, absurdly says “We do not have the desire nor the capability to” monitor the movements of a guy who … *checks notes* … recently sent his private army to attack the capital and shot down multiple aircraft
Seen a lot of talk about what allowing Azovstal commanders to leave says about Erdoğan's relations with Russia, but not much about implications for future exchanges. Hundreds are still held, some facing sham trials
Russia accuses Turkey and Ukraine of violating terms of agreement after return of Azovstal commanders — Meduza
On July 8, Azovstal commanders returned to Ukraine from Turkey. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Turkey and Ukraine of breaking the terms of the agreement that freed the commanders from Russian captivity.
Impressive analysis of Russian casualties by Mediazona and Meduza, concluded 40,000 to 55,000 KIA through May 2023, excluding LPR/DPR and some unknown number of MIA https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats
Discord leaks put it at 35.5K - 43.5K a few months earlier, AFAIK unspecified whether that included LPR/DPR or Wagner
Welp, I guess this take of mine (https://twitter.com/reedmideke/status/1672504330383945728) aged poorly "Not only was Yevgeny Prigozhin not clapped in irons and hauled off to the police station for his rebellion.
It's now emerged that five days later he was in the Kremlin, together with his commanders, sitting round the table and chatting with President Putin."
#Opsec tip of the day brought to you by recently assassinated Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky who reportedly "had profile on Strava, where he posted his runs and bike rides" and was shot while out jogging
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1678513332574191617
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-deputy-chief-krasnodar-shot-dead-/32497651.html#0_8_10089_8766_2710_249232399
Meanwhile, a reminder that coups in nuclear weapons states aren't all fun and games 😬
"as rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents"
Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.
HUR head Budanov "said Wagner fighters went far further… and that their intention was to acquire small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to "raise the stakes" in their mutiny"
(Budanov says some wild stuff on occasion, OTOH reuters got level of corroboration from other sources)
Some people have been dismissive of Wagner actually being able to use them, but that assumes they couldn't get willing or coerced cooperation from the people who are supposed to operate the weapons. Not sure I'd want bet on that… and of course, if they got control of the weapons and made threats, it would be quite hard to be certain
Also, if this is true (and it seems fairly solid that Wagner was at least heading toward the Voronezh-45 storage site), it makes Putin's "let bygones be bygones" approach even more absolutely fucking bonkers
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists analysis from June on what the risks would be if Wagner got hold of them seems pretty level headed (tl;dr definite obstacles to use, but can't dismiss completely, could be used for threats) https://thebulletin.org/2023/06/what-would-happen-if-a-military-group-took-over-russias-nuclear-arsenal/
"Shoigu implausibly claimed on July 11 that Ukrainian forces have lost 26,000 servicemembers and 1,244 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles since starting counteroffensive operations on June 4" (Oryx documents 572 tank and 626 IFV losses… for the entire war)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2023
Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that
Also in that ISW report "Dmitry Rogozin is promoting a proposal to launch high-explosive aerial bombs from the Vostochny and Plesetsk cosmodromes… Rogozin was reportedly interested in retrofitting the FAB-500 bombs to survive reentry into the atmosphere"
Hard to see that making much sense, but on brand for Rogozin
Man who shot and injured a draft officer faces the same prison time as one who made a 50 euro donation for the Ukrainian military 🤨
Intrigue and infighting among Russian command in #Ukraine
1) major general Ivan Popov, commander of the Russian 58th army claims he was removed from command, according to him due to telling the truth about conditions on the front https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1679239805094313987
1) major general Ivan Popov, commander of the Russian 58th army claims he was removed from command, according to him due to telling the truth about conditions on the front https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1679239805094313987
✙🍒 Constantine 🍒✙ on Twitter
“Russian major general Ivan Popov (58th combined arms Air Defense Army) recorded a message saying that he was relieved from duty from his position. 🔊Please listen below to the audio; I've added subtitles. He says he is removed for telling the truth to the high command. He…”
2) "On July 11, a Storm Shadow strike has made on the 58th Army's headquarters in Berdyansk.
Where the deputy commander of the 58th Army, General Tsokov, was killed" (edit: Tsokov was actually deputy commander of the Southern Military District, not of the 58th army as stated in tweet) https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1679241164770414592
Where the deputy commander of the 58th Army, General Tsokov, was killed" (edit: Tsokov was actually deputy commander of the Southern Military District, not of the 58th army as stated in tweet) https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1679241164770414592
3) Chatter (of dubious reliability) implying the strike was a leak by MoD to get rid of Popov https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1679249294660976641
Now if you ask me, AFU is perfectly capable of targeting command posts on their own, having both sources on the ground and friends with the most capable ISR systems on the planet. But hey, never interrupt your enemy while they're forming a circular firing squad!
This is what #Ukraine is fighting against "Hundreds [of civilians] are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves. Torture is routine, including repeated electrical shocks, beatings that crack skulls and fracture ribs, and simulated suffocation. Many former prisoners told the AP they witnessed deaths." https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-prisons-civilians-torture-detainees-88b4abf2efbf383272eed9378be13c72
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law. An Associated Press investigation also found that Russia is making plans to hold potentially thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by the AP dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May that would make it easier for Russia to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has already happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.
And also, those who demand negotiations and "de-escalation" from the west must grapple with this: "Russia does not acknowledge holding civilians at all, let alone its reasons for doing so"
Putin's incoherent response to Wagner revolt continues:
[Putin] said that "Wagner does not exist" when asked whether the group would be preserved as a fighting unit. "There is no law on private military organisations. It just doesn't exist."
This "difficult issue" of how to legalise Wagner fighters should be discussed in parliament https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66194549
👀 "Preliminarily something hit the Crimean bridge.
According to official Russian sources, traffic on the bridge has been halted."
(very unconfirmed, but auto_glam isn't a fabulist)
"It's hard to make out anything in the video.
According to preliminary information, one of the bridge supports was destroyed and one span collapsed."
https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1680752696578416641
According to preliminary information, one of the bridge supports was destroyed and one span collapsed."
https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1680752696578416641
TASS confirms closed due to an unspecified "emergency"
Crimea occupation head Sergey Aksyonov: "Traffic was stopped on the Krymsky Bridge: an emergency occurred in the area of the 145th support from the Krasnodar Territory. Law enforcement agencies and all responsible services are working. I spoke with the Minister of Transport … measures are being taken to restore the situation. We keep in touch with colleagues from Krasnodar Territory"
https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18287603
Pictures of the damage have emerged on the BAZA telegram channel. Not obvious what happened, but seems like the road portion will be significantly affected for some time
Video from a train passenger confirms the rail bridge is unaffected https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1680824307411238912
BBC reports "a source within Ukraine's intelligence service, the SBU, told the BBC's Russian service that it had carried out the attack alongside the navy's special forces"
Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Ukrainska Pravda report similarly, an some Russian sources also suggest it was a USV attack
Uninformed speculation: If you were going to attack it with a high precision missile like Storm Shadow or ATACMS, the big arch over the shipping channel would be the preferred target. OTOH, a USV would necessarily prefer the parts low the water
Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee says "At 03:05, two Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles attacked the Crimean bridge" https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18289125
Russians claim one lane will open to light vehicles July 18, full repairs for the two road spans in September and November. Rail traffic continues although some reports it suffered damage. Incremental damage to Russian logistics but probably not game changing
Putin demands "specific proposals to strengthen the security" and indeed, if #Ukraine manages to repeat the attack and hit the rail bridge before repairs are completed, it would seem to go from inconvenient and embarrassing to a major problem for Russia in Crimea and southern Ukraine
This Insider piece sourced (as claimed) from GRU, FSB and Wagner insiders is wild, but I'm not sure it clears anything up
https://theins.ru/en/politics/263596
https://theins.ru/en/politics/263596
Exclusive: Russia’s Spies Say Putin Faces More Coups
Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt in June left everyone in the world stunned - except Russian intelligence officials, some of whom tacitly supported the catering magnate's efforts. In this exclusive for The Insider, sources in the FSB, GRU and Ministry of Internal Affairs explain why Vladimir Putin's security apparatus failed to stop Wagner from seizing a key military base and charging all the way to the gates of Moscow.
Well it's not The Hague, but happy Girkin arrest day to all who celebrate https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-claim-girkin-arrested/
#Ukraine #Crimea summer seems to be heating up:
July 17: Kerch bridge
July 19: Stary Krym ammo depot https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea-depot-explosion-intl/index.html
July 22: Oktyabrske airfield / ammo depot https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-huge-explosions-rock-crimean-ammo-depot
Today: Dzhankoy https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1683361394291343360
No clear evidence what hit the bases
Rybar claims Storm Shadow used. Not necessarily reliable, but plausible. Notably some people suggested there was a restriction against using them in Crimea, since it wasn't hit in the first month of Storm Shadow attacks. But maybe #Ukraine was just waiting for the right moment https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1683452675411660800
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on Twitter
“Russian channel Rybar assessed the morning strike in Crimea. "UAVs took off from Kryvy Rih, reached Odesa via Mykolaiv region, and there diverted to Crimea in order to confuse Russian air defense. In parallel with this, four Storm Shadow cruise missiles were launched by Su-24…”
Meanwhile #IAEA reports Russians are moving ZNPP reactor 4 to hot shutdown (and 5 to cold), despite #Ukraine nuclear regulator ordering all to cold shutdown. Also, antipersonnel mines around the plant, though not in close proximity to critical systems, and IAEA still denied access to turbine hall roofs https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-175-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
WaPo on #Prigozhin mutiny citing a bunch unnamed government / intelligence sources, claiming that it was pretty much what it seemed at the time: Despite advance warning Prigozhin was up to something, no immediate direction from the top, many lower ranks took a wait and see approach
In case you need a succinct illustration of what an absolute clown Seymour Hersh is these days, he claims "some in the American intelligence community" worry Russia might respond to drone attacks on Moscow by attacking Kyiv 🥴
Prigozhin shows up at Putin's Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. Not sure "recently conducted a failed coup attempt in home country" is a selling point for a mercenary organization, by YMMV
https://www.ft.com/content/0a69c5e8-803d-4bd6-b5f8-8f36073372fc
From @osinttechnical on the other site, APKWS has finally made an appearance, after being listed in aid packages since last year. Not clear what's painting the target, being able to do it with drones would seem like an extremely useful capability
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684796259977109505
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684796259977109505
Another candidate for recent #Ukraine long-range strikes: Re-purposed S-200 SAMs. The thing in this video certainly looks S-200ish, though hitting specific surface targets would imply significant GNC upgrades https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1684983833823780864
S-200 is a chonky SAM with a reported 300 km range against air targets. They also have a history of going astray and hitting distant things on the ground https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(missile)
Long piece from @mgerrydoyle on the terrible scale of the landmine problem in #ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/LANDMINES/myvmgnqbavr/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/LANDMINES/myvmgnqbavr/index.html
OK, it was only a matter of time before North Korean munitions showed up in #Ukraine, but I kinda expected the Russians to be firing them.
Key quotes "Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings … Ukrainian soldiers said the rockets had been “seized” from a ship by a “friendly” country" while a Ukrainian official implied they might be captured from Russians
(ft link probably unpaywalled if you click from twitter)
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1685126870159802373
Unusually close look at some canard drones likely used in strikes by #Ukraine on Russia. Looks aerodynamically slick (aside from the unfaired motor), no surprise it can reach Moscow IMO. Spindly "landing gear" only designed for takeoff? No obvious sign of optical sensors = GNSS + IMU only?
https://twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1685596517850021888
https://twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1685596517850021888
CNN also recently got a close look at one of #Ukraine's USVs. Operators claim that Russian's ships defenses have great difficulty countering them seems a bit optimistic though. There have been a lot more attacks than confirmed successful hits
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html
Multiple drones hit Moscow again, reportedly causing damage to building housing several Russian federal ministries https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1686180379575595009
Thread from Christiaan Triebert includes video of damage purportedly from inside the Ministry of Digital Development. Unconfirmed, but pretty good targeting if true
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1686174248694431744
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1686174248694431744
Kyiv Independent has a wild story about the Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary. "While the POWs allegedly do have Hungarian-sounding surnames, only one speaks Hungarian and is a Hungarian citizen … it was the thinly-veiled image of saving Hungarians that mattered: who these people were in reality did not"
Exclusive: New insights point to Hungary’s collaboration with Moscow on transfer of Ukrainian POWs
In early June, a bizarre and mysterious joint operation was carried out between two of Ukraine’s neighbors, one to the east and one to the west. Eleven Ukrainian soldiers, after having been held in Russian captivity for an unknown amount of time, were moved from Russia to Hungary. Although
Held under unclear circumstances, reportedly pressured:
"The narrative of this manipulation, as confirmed by the diplomatic sources, was to convince the POWs that they would immediately be returned to the front line or tried as deserters if they returned to Ukraine, with one source claiming that they were even pressured to take Hungarian citizenship."
"The narrative of this manipulation, as confirmed by the diplomatic sources, was to convince the POWs that they would immediately be returned to the front line or tried as deserters if they returned to Ukraine, with one source claiming that they were even pressured to take Hungarian citizenship."
This is bizarre, a whole bunch of people who attempted arson attacks on Russian draft offices claim to have been convinced to do it by phone scammers (has been reported for a while, but the sheer number in this post is striking) https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jul-31-aug-1
I mean, people fall for all kinds of phone scams but "throw a molotov at a government building" seems like a pretty high bar. Attempt to get a lighter sentence than saying it's anti-war? Seems unlikely to work, and likely to backfire if there's no evidence of the "scammer"
BBC Russian with a long piece on the decline of the Russian diplomatic corps into shouty propagandist "robots with papers" (google translate seems to do passably well)
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cxrxlwr2q4ro
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cxrxlwr2q4ro
Как российский МИД потерял влияние на Путина и не остановил войну - BBC News Русская служба
Дипломатии не удалось остановить российское вторжение в Украину и предотвратить обвал в отношениях Запада и России. Дипломаты из МИД РФ потеряли авторитет внутри системы власти, пытаясь угодить Кремлю, и превратились в пропагандистов, не способных влиять на позицию Путина. Можно ли восстановить разрушенные войной связи России с западным миром?
Reports of a Russian project 775 Ropucha class landing ship listing heavily after USV attack on Novorossiysk https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1687353796622491650
Ben Brockert@reedmideke Huh an old politician looking paralyzed, you say.