Cities keep being surprised by #climate-aggravated emergencies.
#NewYork was not ready for the #smoke emergency.
"#Wildfire smoke experts said that it would have been difficult to foresee such dramatic impacts but that #ClimateChange is also reshaping natural hazards at a startling pace."
"#Seattle did not have a specific plan for #heatwaves in June 2021, when temperatures soared to 108."
The problem with most climate analysis: "#Climate black swans are shot down before they can even take flight."
#BlackSwan events are events that are extremely unlikely but have catastrophic consequences. Models are not good about taking these into account. This is just now starting to be addressed, expect to hear more about "3-sigma" and "5-sigma" events, three to five standard deviations away from the average, meaning statistically extremely unlikely.
https://www.ft.com/content/b03691be-19ef-4164-9a74-7592d7c73457
"As with many recent destructive weather-related events, the flooding of #Montpelier, #Vermont’s capital city, came with little warning."
“I was looking down a storm drain and the water was down there. Then I turned back and it was pouring out,” he said. “Everything in Montpelier got wrecked.”
And more rain is expected for Vermont.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/12/montpelier-vermont-flood-rain-damage
Nobody is prepared for #climate #BlackSwans, and this will cost us, in lives as well as money, and both numbers will be large.
"The rapid onset of consistently hot and deadly temperatures is catching people off guard."
“The human brain can’t keep up with the acceleration and the perception of your own risk.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/14/we-are-not-prepared-disasters-spread-as-climate-change-strikes-00106439
I was going to make a snide remark about humanity facing #ClimateChange like Aethelred the Unready, but then I looked up the English monarch (978-1013).
He wasn't unready.
"The original Old English was un-ræd. This is a pun on Ethelred’s name which means “noble counsel” and un-ræd means “no counsel or ill-advised counsel.” "
https://curioushistorian.com/who-was-ethelred-and-why-was-he-unready
Come to think of it, that IS sort of like "homo sapiens" facing a campaign of climate misinformation.
#ClimateChange fueled storms are not your grandmothers' storms. In #Chicago, a #BlackSwan in fetid waters.
"Sewage overflows are an indicator that basements are flooding, effectively turning scores of homes into mini stormwater reservoirs.
[Eventually, officials] opened locks near Navy Pier, relieving pressure on the system by allowing more than 1.1 billion gallons of murky, bacteria-laden waste to flow into the region’s chief source of drinking water."
What we must ditch: complacency.
That tunnel in #Cheongju, #SouthKorea was protected from water by an embankment on the nearby river.
“There did not seem to be particular issues until the breach of the embankment … and due to the rapid influx of water, we did not have enough time to stop the cars from entering.”
That's the kind of #BlackSwan event cities need to explore.
A stitch in time
"Jeong Chang-sam, an engineering professor at Induk University in Seoul specialising in water resources, said #prevention is crucial to minimising damage and the loss of lives, but it is often neglected because the benefits are not immediately obvious to politicians and those in government.
"If you put money into prevention projects, you can do it at half the cost of recovery projects," he said."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-flood-deaths-cast-doubt-work-prepare-extreme-weather-2023-07-17/
A year after South Korea vowed to step up readiness for extreme weather driven by climate change, experts say not enough work has been done even as greater volumes of sudden and torrential rains are expected in coming decades.
Brilliant metaphor by @andrewdessler on how #climate risk is non-linear:
"You go from zero damage if the water stops half an inch below the front door of your house to tens of thousands of dollars of damage if the water rises one additional inch and flows into your house.
The correct mental model for #ClimateChange is that things are fine until they’re not, at which point they’re really terrible. And the system can go from “fine” to “terrible” in the blink of an eye."
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/why-are-climate-impacts-escalating
You know why we hesitate to "go there"?
-- Because "there" contains so much suffering it doesn't bear thinking about.
I'm thinking this because I got into a conversation with @michaelwong; I could be all analytical about our system being "brittle" and all
https://mastodon.social/@CelloMomOnCars/110737127468990061
But then I mentioned the possibility of a blackout during the current heatwave. It didn't bear thinking of!
I lost the thread, so to speak. Here is the remark, all on its own, disconnected:
Avoidance, what?
Not only was the post disconnected, all I could say was "The black swan hunters can tell you a host of ways that the grid could go down."
I *started* thinking of a few of those ways, and man, I backed right off. Didn't want to go there. Some superstition that if you name it, you call it into being. Don't wanna wish that on anyone.
This is odd. I am, after all, a scientist, raised on the rational. There is no place for superstition in my world. But here I am.
But this reaction is not helpful.
We need to see the risk in the eye, mind-blowingly scary as it might be.
We must imagine all the ways things can go wrong, so that we can take steps to avoid that outcome.
Already, utilities are pre-emptively taking the grid down, temporarily, in places where a spark might occur, the kind that led to entire California towns burning down.
We need to imagine the disaster so that we can steer clear of it.
Dang we need to be so brave in so many ways now.
Nobody will do this for you, because you are the expert of where you live.
What would take down *your* grid? A spark and a fire? tornados? a flood? falling trees? What would it take to make those power lines more resilient?
If a blackout does happen, who can't live without the power? Your elderly neighbour? the other neighbour with insulin in the fridge? the one that gets around on a battery wheelchair? Have they got a plan?
Hardest of all:
What's your blind spot?
What's your #BlackSwan?
"Because #ClimateChange represents an existential risk to human society, particular focus must be given to one question above all others: “What is the plausible #WorstCaseScenario and what do we have to do to avoid it?”"
#ClimateBlackSwan
https://thebulletin.org/2023/09/betting-against-worst-case-climate-scenarios-is-risky-business/
CelloMom On Cars
Kim Spence-Jones 🇬🇧😷