Mastodawn

Picture : https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starlink_satellites_in_orbit_since_May_2019_(target_%3D_1440).svg

Number of #Starlink #satellites 🛰️ launched until 📆 July 2023 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starlink_and_Starshield_launches#Totals

List of Starlink and Starshield launches - Wikipedia

Dataxis estimates that in 📆 2022, #Starlink generated $607.3 million 💰 in service revenue. #NorthAmerica is the only territory where the average #revenue level has been rising. In the other markets, Starlink adjusted its pricing aggressively to match the competitive environment and gain volume. Between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022, #Oceania's #ARPU fell by 11%, while the decrease reached 41.5% in #Europe and 52.3% in #LatinAmerica.
In 📆 2027, Dataxis projects that Starlink could have 31 million customers and service revenues of $16 billion 💰💰💰💰💰💰 https://dataxis.com/researches-highlights/1056069/by-2027-starlinks-multi-regional-approach-could-generate-16b-annual-revenues

ARPU = average monthly revenue per subscriber

Picture : Starlink availability 7 July 2023 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Starlink_availability_map_by_country.svg

By 2027,Starlink could generate $16B annual revenues-Dataxis

Starlink expanded rapidly: at the end of 2022, SpaceX's company had reached 1.07 million satellite broadband subscribers. Although the figure remains modest...

Dataxis - Market - Leading Data and Executive Events - TV, Telecom, Digital Industries

Michael Gemar Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight There is no way Amazon can match that cadence with the launchers it has contracted (that we know of). Even if SpaceX wanted to help, I don’t know if they have sufficient capacity themselves.

@michaelgemar maybe if Amazon is willing to pay the Ariane price for a Falcon launch ? 🤔 https://techhub.social/@spaceflight/109625314033526191

Spaceflight 🚀 (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image 📊 It currently costs a client more than $60 million 💵 to launch on a #SpaceX #Falcon 9 vehicle. In contrast, it costs some $170 million 💵 (€150 million) to launch a commercial #satellite on an #Ariane 5. #Arianespace intends to slash the #cost of launching the Ariane 6 by around 40 #percent (170x0,6 = $102 million 💵) https://www.ibtimes.com/arianespace-vs-spacex-ariane-6-rockets-will-be-40-cheaper-launch-2758492 #LaunchVehicle estimated #payload cost per kg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition#2010-2020s:_Competition_and_pricing_pressure Picture : https://www.statista.com/chart/21904/estimated-cost-per-seat-on-selected-spacecraft #LaunchCost #RocketCompany

TechHub

robbi Jul 9, 2023

I think the starlink biz is spacex 's 💰💰💰
@spaceflight

@robbi in Feb 2022, Forbes estimated "that SpaceX will recoup that cost in two years at its current customer level" (AFAIK it's now > 1 Million) https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/02/14/starlink-hits-250000-customers-elon-musk-hints-spacex-booking-over-300-millionyear/

Starlink Hits 250,000 Customers, Elon Musk Hints: SpaceX Booking Over $300 Million/Year

If 250,000 people are currently using Starlink terminals, that would be a revenue run rate of $25 million a month for SpaceX, given the $100/month charge for high-speed internet on the Starlink service.

Forbes

#SpaceCompany #LaunchCost

@intengineering 📆 Mar 27, 2023 #SpaceX charges $67 million 💵 per #Falcon 9 launch, and Spice said #RocketLab aims to match this on a cost-per-kilogram basis. #Neutron, which will have a slightly lower payload capacity of 28,660 lbs (13,000 kg) to #LEO, will target a "$50 million to $55 million 💵 launch service cost". Neutron is still on track for its first launch 🚀 next year. https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/rocket-lab-says-reusable-neutron-will-compete-directly-with-falcon-9

@NewSpaceEconomy 📆 June 6, 2022 #RocketLab : when #Neutron begins offering commercial #LaunchServices sometime in the future, #Falcon 9 will not be the only competition Neutron will be compared against by customers deciding on a launch service provider. Of particular note, #SpaceX’s #Starship, a super heavy lift launch vehicle, will be available for commercial service years before Neutron. Starship’s payload capacity and cost per kilogram will be orders of magnitude better than Neutron. https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2023/06/22/that-dog-wont-hunt-rocket-labs-neutron-space-launch-vehicle

Rocket Lab says reusable Neutron will 'compete directly with Falcon 9'

The company will charge $50 million per launch of its next-gen rocket, bringing it in line with SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches.

Interesting Engineering

Spaceflight 🚀Aug 9, 2023

#Reuters 📆 August 7, 2023 #Amazon will launch the first two #satellites 🛰️ aboard a dedicated #Atlas V rocket from #ULA. In 📆 2021 ULA stopped selling the Atlas V and has 19 more missions to fly before the #rocket retires. The company had imported the rocket's #Russian 🇷🇺 -made #RD180 engines in bulk for those remaining missions and has no plans to order more https://www.reuters.com/science/amazon-switches-rockets-first-test-satellites-sooner-launch-2023-08-07

Amazon switches rockets for first test satellites to avoid launch delay

Amazon.com Inc <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/AMZN.O" target="_blank">(AMZN.O)</a> plans to launch its first pair of prototype internet satellites late next month on a different rocket than previously planned, a spokesman said on Monday, again switching rides for the spacecraft to avoid mounting rocket delays.

Reuters

Spaceflight 🚀Dec 3, 2023

😲 #Amazon has signed a contract with #SpaceX for three #Falcon9 launches to support deployment plans for Project #Kuiper, Amazon’s low Earth orbit (#LEO) #satellite 🛰️ broadband network https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-spacex-launch

#BlueOrigin #ULA #Ariane

Amazon secures 3 launches with SpaceX to support Project Kuiper deployment

Additional capacity will supplement existing launch contracts to support Project Kuiper’s satellite deployment schedule.

US About Amazon

Spaceflight 🚀Dec 3, 2023

#Amazon expects to deploy enough #satellites 🛰️ for "early customer pilots" in the second half of 📆 2024. It plans to use #ULA's #Atlas5 and the yet-to-launch #VulcanRocket for the first few batches of satellites https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/amazon-launch-three-falcon-9-rockets-spacex-2023-12-01/

Amazon signs up SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches for Kuiper satellites

Amazon <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/AMZN.O" target="_blank">(AMZN.O)</a> has signed an agreement with SpaceX to launch three of Elon Musk's Falcon 9 rockets to support deployment plans for its Project Kuiper, the ecommerce giant said on Friday.

Reuters

Spaceflight 🚀Dec 9, 2023

Last year, #Amazon bought up most of the Western world's excess launch capacity from everyone but #SpaceX. Aside from the #AtlasV, which Amazon will lean on to launch its first batches of #satellites, none 0️⃣ of the #rockets needed to deploy the #Kuiper network have flown. https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/a-bitter-pill-amazon-calls-on-rival-spacex-to-launch-internet-satellites/

A bitter pill: Amazon calls on rival SpaceX to launch Internet satellites

Jeff Bezos’ rivalry with Elon Musk takes a back seat to Amazon’s launch dilemma.

Ars Technica

Michael Gemar Dec 9, 2023

@spaceflight IMHO, it’s generous to refer to the “excess capacity” of rockets that, as you note, have yet to demonstrate they have *any* capacity to put stuff in orbit…

Spaceflight 🚀Dec 9, 2023

@michaelgemar 👍😆, but it's @sciguyspace who noted it, I just cited his words. He could have added "potential".

Michael Gemar Dec 9, 2023

@spaceflight @sciguyspace Yep, I definitely didn’t mean to suggest that you yourself don’t recognize this distinction.

Michael Gemar Dec 3, 2023

@spaceflight That timeline seems…optimistic.

David Dickinson Dec 3, 2023

@spaceflight Wild, that SpaceX is even launching sats for Starlink competitors now.

Spaceflight 🚀Dec 3, 2023

@AstroDave 😁

Dolson Jul 6, 2023

@spaceflight I think #NewGlenn is going to be operational earlier than you might expect. We’re just used to #SpaceX being so much more open about their development that it seems like nothing is happening with Blue. I could be wrong though

Spaceflight 🚀Jul 6, 2023

@bcoffy I think they make a lot of noise about flying #SpaceTourists to the edge of #space, so why aren't there any news at all about "the real thing" ? (At least the BE4 production rate)🤔 https://techhub.social/@spaceflight/109348097697876507

Spaceflight 🚀 (@[email protected])

"By the time #BlueOrigin was created in 📆 2000, #Amazon had already earned him several billion. #SpaceX 🐇 came about two years later when #Musk successfully sold #PayPal for $160 million. The turtle’s pace 🐢 made #NewShepard #BlueOrigin’s only real achievement in 20 years. A #suborbital booster with a cargo-passenger capsule starts vertically and rises to a height of 100km" https://orbitaltoday.com/2022/04/19/blue-origin-vs-spacex-the-hard-race-to-space-leadership #SpaceCompany #ReusableLaunchVehicle #SpacecraftComparison

TechHub

Red Hot Rocket

Jul 6, 2023

@spaceflight @bcoffy Blue Origin is doing a lot of cool stuff besides rockets. But I agree that the company was mismanaged the last decade (or two).

About the "why aren't there any news at all about "the real thing"".
Blue is a company that prefers to keep everything a secret, until it is done. But if you know where to look, there is plenty of "news".

@redhotrocket @bcoffy indeed https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/as-summer-turns-to-fall-ula-still-waiting-for-its-be-4-rocket-engines/

As summer turns to fall, ULA still waiting for its BE-4 rocket engines

"Why, Mr. Spock, you almost make me believe in miracles."

Ars Technica

@redhotrocket @bcoffy https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-200th-upgraded-raptor-engine/

SpaceX ships Starship's 200th upgraded Raptor engine

A day after revealing the completion of the 200th Falcon upper stage and Merlin Vacuum engine, SpaceX has announced that it also recently finished building Starship’s 200th upgraded Raptor engine. Starship – and Raptor, by extension – has yet to reach orbit and is likely years away from scratching the surface of the established success […]

TESLARATI

https://spacenews.com/amazon-signs-multibillion-dollar-project-kuiper-launch-contracts/

Red Hot Rocket

Jul 6, 2023

@spaceflight I don't think they're going to drop their contracts that quick. Considering the ties Amazon has with these launch providers.

Amazon signs multibillion-dollar Project Kuiper launch contracts

SpaceNews

@redhotrocket that's the relevant phrase of this article : “Amazon has talked to every major launch provider and they will continue to explore all options for future launch services”. The rest consists of "declined to provide details", "did not disclose" a.s.o.

Whereas in the other one there's cited “Low cost and the ability to scale are at the core. We are a business and so we have to make money" https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2023/06/23/project-kuiper-how-amazon-will-drape-the-world-in-satellites. So #LaunchCost should be a factor ? 🤔

Project Kuiper: How Amazon Will Drape The World In Satellites

Amazon is moving into the low-earth orbit satellite business, and those satellites will be coming thick and fast. Here’s what the company has to say about the project.

Forbes

Luna chan Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight
I think Vulcan will be flying by then the first stage has passed the tests and the anomaly in Centaur IV has been identified these are the same people who made Atlas V and Delta IV.
Ariane 6 will fly by then too Ariane 5 had a rough start but became one of the most reliable rockets ever.
I think small launchers will play a part they allow single failed sats to be replaced for low cost.

@Luna Vulcan depends on BE4 engines, so what about the launch cadence ? https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/12/ula-disappointed-in-be-4-delay-but-still-aiming-for-2022-vulcan-launch. Ariane 6 still didn't fly and is 50% more expensive than the (reliable) Falcon 9 https://techhub.social/@spaceflight/109625314033526191. Small launchers will certainly not deliver mega constellations. India might also offer a heavy launcher, they already delivered #OneWeb satellites 🤔

With further delays to BE-4 rocket engine, Vulcan may not make 2022 debut

"These are really big, heavy, complicated pieces of machinery."

Ars Technica

Luna chan Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight
They finally got the BE-4 sorted out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uGe2Gor9dA

Production of Blue Origin’s BE-4 Engine Is Ramping Up

YouTube

@Luna this is "sorted out" : "after key senior #management #departed the company, SpaceX personnel looked deeper into issues surrounding Raptor production and found them to “be far more severe than was #reported.” https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/30/22809720/elon-musk-spacex-raptor-engine-crisis-bankruptcy-starship

Elon Musk says Raptor engine production is a ‘disaster’ that puts SpaceX at risk of bankruptcy

On November 26th, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sent an email to his employees, urging them to come in over the weekend to work on Raptor engine production, calling it a “crisis” that is putting SpaceX at “risk of bankruptcy.”

The Verge

Olav Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight BO probably way late 2024, probably 2025 is a decent bet. Vulcan Q1 2024 bit there's a waiting list. Arianne 6 Q2/Q3 2024 hopefully. IRSO doesn't have a cadence to pick up the slack.
Just my guesses based on regular delays anyhow

@olavf "#BE4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine #development testing at our facilities in Van Horn, Texas. Full rate #production will occur in our new engine manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama." https://www.blueorigin.com/engines/be-4 - But when ⏳? 2 of the 3 are dependent on those (regarding the cadence)

BE-4 | Blue Origin

Blue Origin

Olav Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight engine cadence is a lot of the things. I figure they have to ramp up to at least 9 engines a month before New Glenn can get serious. (2 for ULA, 7 for BO).

Tomcat Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight
I think more than one internet satellite system is bullshit and dangerous for spaceflight and all of us.
And the only one that should be in space, should be provided by an institution like UN or an UNlike more efficient organisation.

What's happening here is a comparison of billionaires dicks.

@Tomcat #China is also planning a mega constellation. There is such an UN institution as you mentioned : https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/index.html
I personally believe that there is no efficiency without competition (regarding the evolution of technology). The #SpaceDebris issue should certainly be taken serious, the problem is missing international consensus between the major powers.

Space Law

United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs

Vincent Degove Jul 8, 2023

@spaceflight I voted "they need a miracle" because, for sure, all three launchers won't be putting Amazon satellites in orbit by 2025. But at least one will be.

Really crossing my fingers that the first Ariane 6 launch performs as expected.

@spaceflight
#Public benefit? 😂 Bezos could end #paywall on WaPo for less money, with immediate positive #impact. "'We can have thi$ amazing opportunity to $erve the un$erved and the under$erved, who have not had choice$ and option$. But at the same time, we believe that the opportunity is large enough for it to become a good busine$$ for #Amazon. It’s one of those rare opportunitie$ which has a broader #SocialImpact at the same time and makes sense for us to invest in as a company.'”

@RichStein “You get an opportunity when you go into replenishment to upgrade the technology..."

More: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/07/billionaires-should-not-make-up-climate-finance-gaps-says-bezos-earth-fund-head

@spaceflight
And charge users for the upgrades? If only Amazon/Bezos/et al. could be trusted to consider public benefits/impacts in every business decision. Amazon would still be a behemoth and Bezos would continue as an uber billionaire. But that's not the libertarian ("regulation and taxes for thee, not for me") billionaire tech bro way.

Article touches on several issues: "Can Jeff Bezos’ Earth Fund Offset Amazon’s Environmental Impact?" https://observer.com/2023/05/jeff-bezos-earth-fund-amazon/

Can Jeff Bezos’ Earth Fund Offset Amazon’s Environmental Impact?

Amazon's emissions increased by 18 percent in 2021, despite pledging to meet net-zero carbon emissions by 2030.

Observer

@RichStein that's also mentioned in the Guardian article : “I don’t think we should buy into the idea that we’re somehow an alternative to government, because governments have an obligation and they are not living up to it to the extent they should."

@spaceflight
Yes. Impossible to ignore billionaires "doing good," because they control so much wealth, and their presence in philanthropy skews actions (and results). Also difficult to steer or even nudge (see the economic term) them. And governments can use their presence as cover for not doing their part. Complicated for sure. [Follow @p2173 for good insight/research on #philanthropy.)

Billionaires could play by rules, pay taxes and still succeed by many metrics. Sadly, they prefer not to.

@RichStein as already mentioned above, the governments just should do their job https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/100-millionaires-billionaires-sign-letter-more-taxes/

100 millionaires and billionaires signed a letter to pay more taxes—and fear violence if they don’t

"It's taxes or pitchforks," wrote a group calling themselves Patriotic Millionaires.

Fortune

@spaceflight
If only that simple. Also, government is you and me last time I looked.😉

@RichStein Every nation gets the government it deserves https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Government

Government - Wikiquote