Mastodawn

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

Arguments for/against Scottish independence:

Every single argument against Brexit—except ONE—also applies in miniature to Scotland leaving the UK (a smaller nation leaving a larger free trade zone).

The exception was the Tory complaint that laws in the UK were dictated from afar by an unfriendly foreign power.

In the case of Scotland, s.35 orders, reserved issues, and Henry VIII orders prove this assertion to be true—a right-wing English nationalist party has a choke-hold on Scottish policy.

If we (Scotland) get independence, the near-term economic disruption will be ghastly.

But in the longer term, we'll no longer be run from afar as a Tory-controlled colony: there will be scope to improve things, if we can do so.

Control over immigration policy means we could import the skilled workers we're so short of, and regain freedom of movement with the continent. Control over trade and fiscal policy means we could rejoin the EU and adopt the Euro. Frictionless trade! Stable currency!

Nik Butler Jul 5, 2023

@cstross well you will have tourism, whisky, some oil industry, orkney exporting renewables, salmon , and video game developers. I think Scotland will bounce back happily in about 5 years. Undo Brexit and Scotland will be flying.

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@loudmouthman It's not just Orkney with the renewables: if North Sea oil dried up tomorrow, Scotland would still be a significant (and growing) energy exporter. There's also a high tech sector here, creative industries, and a lot more. Scotland is more productive than any part of England outside London.

Nik Butler Jul 5, 2023

@cstross yep .. down here in Horsham ( home of Creative Assembly ) I note that its Leeds then Scotland that drive a large amount of digital creative content . I think the only export in media we have in the UK is
Pinewood/Sheraton/WolfHall

Could you imagine Scotland with its Wind /tidal resource leaning heavy into renewable and clean energy export. tell Shell to goto Hell.

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@loudmouthman Scottish electricity grid interconnect fees are the highest in the UK ... because there isn't enough high tension capacity to let Scotland export all its wind power as it is.

Nik Butler Jul 5, 2023

@cstross also I am alreadly spending time looking to where I want to move to, i was born in Elgin and frankly would be happier back near the lochs as I would back in London I think

Cavyherd Jul 5, 2023

@loudmouthman @cstross

Also, if y'all are serious about immigration, I can think of one candidate who might be potentially interested. ::waves in despairing American::

Very Human Robot Jul 5, 2023

@cstross
And you can rejoin the European Union!

Angus McIntyre Jul 5, 2023

@cstross The fun part will be when the English run out of kings and come begging to Scotland for a replacement, but this time the Scots will just look down and whisper “No.”

Seiðr Jul 5, 2023

@cstross Let's put it in relative terms: how disruptive will it be compared to Brexit? and How long term before being welcome into the EU?

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@Illuminatus Your model for disruption is UK/Ireland relations—except the land border with England is significantly shorter and easier to build customs checkpoints at. And the legal boilerplate for how Westminster should handle Scottish secession is available off-the-shelf, thanks to Ireland doing the exact same thing in 1922.

Don Marti Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @Illuminatus Are there good locations on the border for tunneling, or are the smugglers going to be all drone-based? And will the routes be able to take profitable cargo in both directions, or have to come back empty?

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@dmarti @Illuminatus Heh, no: the border is a third the length of the NI/Ireland border and crinkle-cut (hilly/mountainous): there are only 3 major roads, 3 railway lines, and about 15 minor roads that cross it. Terrible terrain for smugglers (they'd be better to do it by boat).

Don Marti Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @Illuminatus maybe long-range WiFi hackers on the England side will climb a hill to get EU pr0n from long-range WiFi hackers on the Scotland side who are climbing a hill to get on a social site that won't launch in the EU

Roger Crew✅❌☑🗸❎✖✓✔Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @dmarti @Illuminatus

(Antonine Wall gets rebuilt 1900 years later)

Nick Stevens Graphics Jul 5, 2023

I always had a lot of sympathy with the idea of Scottish independence - though I felt the currency issue was not really dealt with clearly.

(I.e. keep the pound without control, or switch to the euro).

acb Jul 5, 2023

@cstross Given the crisis within the SNP that might cost if the next election, and Starmer having made noises about constitutional reform in the UK in the past, another possibility would be a rolling back of devolution, with Scotland’s nation status being demoted to that of a “region” alongside Yorkshire, the Midlands and such. This would probably involve water and NHS being privatised along English lines.

Michael Rawdon Jul 5, 2023

@cstross I wonder if the near-term economic disruption might be less because it wouldn’t be managed by a corrupt clown car like Brexit was.

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@mrawdon On the one hand, yes: in the other hand, we can rely on the Tories (or Labour) down south to go full scorched-earth in a vindictive reaction to being rejected. (Think in terms of Putin's attitude to Ukraine for a barely-exaggerated version of how English nationalists think of Scotland.)

Cavyherd Jul 5, 2023

This here former-colony resident endorses this ambition and cheers you-all on!

Tim Bray Jul 5, 2023

@cstross Next UK election probably puts the Tories on tumbrils and you’re left with Keir-ist centrism… one wonders how distinguishable it will be, but if one is optimistic that there is some progressivism hiding in Labour ranks, does that change the equation?

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@timbray It would, but I remember Starmer in office as DPP under the Tories during the 2011 riots. He showed his colours as an authoritarian fash-adjacent asshole back then, and I don't think he's changed.

Steve Loughran Jul 5, 2023

@timbray @cstross worry less about the Starmer government than the Sunak one which will follow. Which is why Starmer's inevitable complacent neglect of electoral reform is something we will suffer from for decades

Steve Loughran Jul 5, 2023

@timbray @cstross sorry: Braverman government. She will be as cruel to Scotland as Thatcher was.

@cstross
Where do you stand on the "Orkney rejoining the Noway" issue? 🍿

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@benno That's an issue for the Orcadians (and Norway) to make up their minds on. I will say a transition would be easier from an independent-within-the-EU Scotland than from the UK run by rabid brexiteers we have right now.

Bodhipaksa Jul 5, 2023

@cstross Scotland being one of the poorer parts of the EU (thanks, Westminster!) there should be abundant funds flowing into the country from Brussels to help Scotland grow out of the initial economic disruption of independence.

Ian Irving 🇨🇦Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross that would be dependent on how quickly an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU or if ETA allows for such grants.

Bodhipaksa Jul 5, 2023

@iani @cstross You'd imagine that since we were recently in the EU, we'd be able to meet the criteria for (re)entry fairly quickly.

I'm not a big fan of exceptionalism of any sort, but especially not the Scottish form of it — 'We're wee and rubbish and naebody wants us'.

Aethylred Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @iani @cstross that post-colonial inferiority complex sounds familiar from New Zealand

Hugo Mills Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @iani @cstross I think one of the major barriers would be demonstrating a suitably stable currency. Carry on using (English) Sterling and you're tied to the fortunes of the rump UK; spin out SCP as a separate currency, and the EU is going to want to see how well it's managed first.

Rafe Culpin Jul 5, 2023

@darkling @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross As new members Scotland would have to commit to using the Euro.

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@RafeCulpin @darkling @bodhipaksa @iani Yes, just like Poland (which is still on the Zloty despite a 20-year commitment to use the Euro ... eventually).

Hugo Mills Jul 5, 2023

@RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross D'oh. Of course. (Too much living in England. Rots the brain.)

However, I still recall seeing something about having to demonstrate some appropriate level of economic stability, which is going to be tricky if the economy gets a bit wobbly from the divorce.

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@darkling @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani Remind me again how Perfectly Normal Island, post-Brexit, is economically strong and stable right now?

Hugo Mills Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani My point was that I think it's not just going to be a matter of Scotland escaping and heading off into the sunset with Europe immediately.

When the time comes, whatever's left of the UK is going to face the same issues to qualify for re-entry.

Rafe Culpin Jul 5, 2023

@darkling @cstross @bodhipaksa @iani If the English Rump wants to rejoin they will lose all the spacial rebates they had, and they will have to commit to Euro and Schengen. The right wing will lose a lot of members to apoplexy.

Hugo Mills Jul 5, 2023

@RafeCulpin @cstross @bodhipaksa @iani Good. (To all of that).

HighlandLawyer Jul 5, 2023

@darkling @cstross @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani I suspect if independence has as one of its planks "so that we can (re)join the EU", combined with the past national pro EU history & only minor divergence from EU legal provisions, interim arrangements while the membership provisions are going on will not be problematical.
That's even ignoring any diplomatically hidden motives by EU & its members to metaphorically stick up a finger to Westminster/Brexit England by assisting Scotland's rejoining.

HighlandLawyer Jul 5, 2023

@RafeCulpin @darkling @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross Commit to: but there's no time limit for when. There would have to be a Scottish currency in the meantime.

Michael Gemar Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross @iani I’ve seen speculation that EU countries with their own separatist movements might be reluctant to grant Scotland status, as it might embolden internal groups desiring their own independence. I don’t know if this is a real consideration, but I do imagine that, e.g., Spain might think long and hard…

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@michaelgemar @bodhipaksa @iani Spain already indicated their objection had been to breakaway units of actual EU members joining, as it sets a precedent for secessionist movements within the EU; since Brexit, that has become a non-obstacle.

Iain Bancarz Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @michaelgemar @bodhipaksa @iani Yes, there are several EU members which have broken away from non-EU entities in the recent past: The Baltic states, Slovenia, Croatia, etc.

HighlandLawyer Jul 5, 2023

@michaelgemar @bodhipaksa @cstross @iani That was one of the major scare stories put about during Indyref. It's since repeatedly been confirmed that is not an issue.
(Of course unionists could have simply said "well if you become independent, as a new state you'll be out of the EU & we, the fUK, as a member will veto your joining". That of course would have let their real feelings for Scotland out of the bag, & wouldn't have played well with their own anti-EU wing either.)

Iain Bancarz Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @iani @cstross Scotland would have to satisfy the same requirements as any other candidate for EU membership. Some are straightforward, eg. judicial system and human rights protections. Others are more difficult and/or require institutions Scotland doesn't currently have (financial services regulator, central bank). It could be done, but not overnight.

https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/conditions-membership/chapters-acquis_en

Chapters of the acquis

The conditions and timing of the candidate's adoption, implementation and enforcement of all current EU rules (the "acquis").

European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR)

Renato Ramonda Jul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @iani @cstross I distinctly remember, right before the official Brexit, EU officials saying they would not only have welcomed an independent Scotland in the EU, but that had they somehow become independent before Brexit they could have *stayed* in the Union.

Granted, talk is cheap and it could well be political posturing.

Alex Zani Jul 5, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross It's really unlikely that Scotland would be admitted to the EU if a large flow of funds from Brussels was expected.

Bodhipaksa Jul 5, 2023

@AlexandreZani @cstross What's your evidence for that, especially given that Ukraine's approval was pretty straightforward and it's much poorer and larger than Scotland? By EU standards, the amount of money flowing to Scotland would be tiny. By Scotland's standards, it would be substantial.

Alex Zani Jul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross Ukraine was approved as a candidate for accession in response to Russia's invasion. To become a member, it needs to hit a bunch of legislative, administrative and economic targets that it almost certainly can't hit given the ongoing invasion. It also needs every EU member to ratify its accession treaty. This process usually takes around a decade.

Alex Zani Jul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross Accepting Ukraine would also mean incorporating them in the Common Defense and Security policy which in the current situation would likely mean the EU declaring war on Russia.

All of that to say, Ukraine's accession to candidate status was particularly easy because the goal was to rebuke Russia and EU members know Ukraine's candidacy is very unlikely to turn into membership anytime soon.

Bodhipaksa Jul 6, 2023

@AlexandreZani @cstross So, accepting an underdeveloped country that's being invaded by Russia is "particularly easy" while accepting a country that's at peace and has recently been part of the EU is problematic. Thanks for clearing that up.

Alex Zani Jul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross You're confusing acceptance to candidacy and acceptance to membership.

Acceptance to candidacy gives basically no concrete benefits. That's what Ukraine got. Scotland could probably get it too.

Acceptance to membership is what would actually help Scotland and Ukraine concretely and it would require the candidate to not be one of the poorest places in Europe anymore.

Zed Lopez Jul 5, 2023

@cstross I've got to admit that one reason I've rooted for Irish reunification and Scottish independence is the anticipatory schadenfreude from watching Brexiters cope with a UK inexorably dwindling toward being not even the biggest going concern in the British Isles (albeit tempered with my sympathies for the non-Brexiters who never wanted this).

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@zedlopez Irish unification is problematic for at least a generation due to demographics and culture—the unionist/protestant group in NI is not yet an absolute minority, and the rabid unionists would probably raise hell if it happened much before 2050. Having said that, the rabid nutters seem to be in long-term decline ...

Jeff Zugale - Z Factory Jul 5, 2023

@cstross maybe… I think the immediate flood of EU investment in Scotland will be quite large, though, you have so much to offer in expertise and energy production!

Ian Irving 🇨🇦Jul 5, 2023

@cstross so without a UK veto on joining, and maybe passing a cluster of bills into law, are there any impediments to joining ETA or EU? It certainly helps being part of a former member country. What is a reasonable range of time?

Charlie Stross Jul 5, 2023

@iani Don't know, but keep your eye on Ukraine (which is moving towards joining).

hessi Jul 5, 2023

@cstross @iani This was discussed in the German press some time ago. Main arguments against an independent Scotland joining the EU were potential vetoes by Spain, Italy and other EU countries with an independent movement (Catalan, Bask, South Tyrol etc), mainly to discourage their respective regions from seeking independence and joining the EU „again“.
Don‘t know how realistic this scenario is, but it‘s… possible.

Parade du Grotesque 💀Jul 5, 2023

And, as an added bonus, if Scotland ever gains independence and rejoins the EU, it will be able to ask (and obtain) European subsidies.

Those could seriously lessen the impact of the economic disruption.

And I can see the EU granting a lot of money to Scotland, just to piss Westminster out.

Tormod Halvorsen Jul 5, 2023

So, realistically - what does a plausible timeline look like here?

1. Leaving the UK
2. Regrouping internally
3. Rejoining the EU

It's only three steps, but kinda big ones :)

There is also a bit of overlap in steps 2 and 3, I'm guessing...

We'd sure love to have you back, anyhow...

nickj Jul 5, 2023

@cstross adopt the euro and cede control of your economy to the neo libs.