Charlie StrossJul 5, 2023

Arguments for/against Scottish independence:

Every single argument against Brexit—except ONE—also applies in miniature to Scotland leaving the UK (a smaller nation leaving a larger free trade zone).

The exception was the Tory complaint that laws in the UK were dictated from afar by an unfriendly foreign power.

In the case of Scotland, s.35 orders, reserved issues, and Henry VIII orders prove this assertion to be true—a right-wing English nationalist party has a choke-hold on Scottish policy.

Show threadCharlie StrossJul 5, 2023

If we (Scotland) get independence, the near-term economic disruption will be ghastly.

But in the longer term, we'll no longer be run from afar as a Tory-controlled colony: there will be scope to improve things, if we can do so.

Control over immigration policy means we could import the skilled workers we're so short of, and regain freedom of movement with the continent. Control over trade and fiscal policy means we could rejoin the EU and adopt the Euro. Frictionless trade! Stable currency!

Show threadBodhipaksaJul 5, 2023
@cstross Scotland being one of the poorer parts of the EU (thanks, Westminster!) there should be abundant funds flowing into the country from Brussels to help Scotland grow out of the initial economic disruption of independence.
Show threadAlex Zani
@bodhipaksa @cstross It's really unlikely that Scotland would be admitted to the EU if a large flow of funds from Brussels was expected.
Jul 5, 2023 at 7:30pmWeb
Show threadBodhipaksaJul 5, 2023
@AlexandreZani @cstross What's your evidence for that, especially given that Ukraine's approval was pretty straightforward and it's much poorer and larger than Scotland? By EU standards, the amount of money flowing to Scotland would be tiny. By Scotland's standards, it would be substantial.
Show threadAlex ZaniJul 6, 2023
@bodhipaksa @cstross Ukraine was approved as a candidate for accession in response to Russia's invasion. To become a member, it needs to hit a bunch of legislative, administrative and economic targets that it almost certainly can't hit given the ongoing invasion. It also needs every EU member to ratify its accession treaty. This process usually takes around a decade.
Show threadAlex ZaniJul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross Accepting Ukraine would also mean incorporating them in the Common Defense and Security policy which in the current situation would likely mean the EU declaring war on Russia.

All of that to say, Ukraine's accession to candidate status was particularly easy because the goal was to rebuke Russia and EU members know Ukraine's candidacy is very unlikely to turn into membership anytime soon.

Show threadBodhipaksaJul 6, 2023
@AlexandreZani @cstross So, accepting an underdeveloped country that's being invaded by Russia is "particularly easy" while accepting a country that's at peace and has recently been part of the EU is problematic. Thanks for clearing that up.
Show threadAlex ZaniJul 6, 2023

@bodhipaksa @cstross You're confusing acceptance to candidacy and acceptance to membership.

Acceptance to candidacy gives basically no concrete benefits. That's what Ukraine got. Scotland could probably get it too.

Acceptance to membership is what would actually help Scotland and Ukraine concretely and it would require the candidate to not be one of the poorest places in Europe anymore.