Charlie StrossJul 5, 2023

Arguments for/against Scottish independence:

Every single argument against Brexit—except ONE—also applies in miniature to Scotland leaving the UK (a smaller nation leaving a larger free trade zone).

The exception was the Tory complaint that laws in the UK were dictated from afar by an unfriendly foreign power.

In the case of Scotland, s.35 orders, reserved issues, and Henry VIII orders prove this assertion to be true—a right-wing English nationalist party has a choke-hold on Scottish policy.

Show threadCharlie StrossJul 5, 2023

If we (Scotland) get independence, the near-term economic disruption will be ghastly.

But in the longer term, we'll no longer be run from afar as a Tory-controlled colony: there will be scope to improve things, if we can do so.

Control over immigration policy means we could import the skilled workers we're so short of, and regain freedom of movement with the continent. Control over trade and fiscal policy means we could rejoin the EU and adopt the Euro. Frictionless trade! Stable currency!

Show threadBodhipaksaJul 5, 2023
@cstross Scotland being one of the poorer parts of the EU (thanks, Westminster!) there should be abundant funds flowing into the country from Brussels to help Scotland grow out of the initial economic disruption of independence.
Show threadIan Irving 🇨🇦Jul 5, 2023
@bodhipaksa @cstross that would be dependent on how quickly an independent Scotland would be able to join the EU or if ETA allows for such grants.
Show threadBodhipaksaJul 5, 2023

@iani @cstross You'd imagine that since we were recently in the EU, we'd be able to meet the criteria for (re)entry fairly quickly.

I'm not a big fan of exceptionalism of any sort, but especially not the Scottish form of it — 'We're wee and rubbish and naebody wants us'.

Show threadHugo Mills
@bodhipaksa @iani @cstross I think one of the major barriers would be demonstrating a suitably stable currency. Carry on using (English) Sterling and you're tied to the fortunes of the rump UK; spin out SCP as a separate currency, and the EU is going to want to see how well it's managed first.
Jul 5, 2023 at 7:29pmWeb
Show threadRafe CulpinJul 5, 2023
@darkling @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross As new members Scotland would have to commit to using the Euro.
Show threadCharlie StrossJul 5, 2023
@RafeCulpin @darkling @bodhipaksa @iani Yes, just like Poland (which is still on the Zloty despite a 20-year commitment to use the Euro ... eventually).
Show threadHugo MillsJul 5, 2023

@RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross D'oh. Of course. (Too much living in England. Rots the brain.)

However, I still recall seeing something about having to demonstrate some appropriate level of economic stability, which is going to be tricky if the economy gets a bit wobbly from the divorce.

Show threadCharlie StrossJul 5, 2023
@darkling @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani Remind me again how Perfectly Normal Island, post-Brexit, is economically strong and stable right now?
Show threadHugo MillsJul 5, 2023

@cstross @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani My point was that I think it's not just going to be a matter of Scotland escaping and heading off into the sunset with Europe immediately.

When the time comes, whatever's left of the UK is going to face the same issues to qualify for re-entry.

Show threadRafe CulpinJul 5, 2023
@darkling @cstross @bodhipaksa @iani If the English Rump wants to rejoin they will lose all the spacial rebates they had, and they will have to commit to Euro and Schengen. The right wing will lose a lot of members to apoplexy.
Show threadHugo MillsJul 5, 2023
@RafeCulpin @cstross @bodhipaksa @iani Good. (To all of that).
Show threadHighlandLawyerJul 5, 2023
@darkling @cstross @RafeCulpin @bodhipaksa @iani I suspect if independence has as one of its planks "so that we can (re)join the EU", combined with the past national pro EU history & only minor divergence from EU legal provisions, interim arrangements while the membership provisions are going on will not be problematical.
That's even ignoring any diplomatically hidden motives by EU & its members to metaphorically stick up a finger to Westminster/Brexit England by assisting Scotland's rejoining.
Show threadHighlandLawyerJul 5, 2023
@RafeCulpin @darkling @bodhipaksa @iani @cstross Commit to: but there's no time limit for when. There would have to be a Scottish currency in the meantime.