Yay, it works! So instead of just mixing with the previous frame, I'm mixing with a temporally reprojected previous frame, which eliminates the dizzy blurring due to camera movements and only preserves the "motion blur" of the cars.
@eniko I have this frame's depth buffer and camera matrix, which can be used to reconstruct world-space position of the pixel. Then, I use the previous frame's camera matrix to figure the screen-space position of this world-space point in the previous frame, and use it to sample the previous frame!
@fell@eniko I'm OK with animated stuff being blurred, that's the whole point :) You won't get true motion blur, though, something like light trails at night aren't possible with this approach.