PwnallthethingsA lot of takes that Prigozhin signed his own death warrant via this deal, which, ironically, is exactly the opposite of what he just did, which is to get his literal death warrant officially unsigned
Still super up-in-the-air how long he survives even post-deal, but yesterday the good money was "idk, but probably in hours not days" and post-deal it's longer than that.
Stephen K 🔑☢️⚛️🇺🇦 
@Pwnallthethings I don't think it matters if he survives - Russia's internal politics just got much, much more muddy. There's no way Putin can allow Prig to live, and Prig basically controls the MOD now if the negotiations are true.
Putins entire image, which was his only real card, just went up in smoke.
@Pwnallthethings Its not to mention - Putin spent two decades wiping out any sort of opposition to his power and anyone who might question him to secure his power.
That's all undone. He cannot hide this. And even if he kills Prig, he cannot prevent another. His weakness is out in the open.
Winged Hussar@CommieGIR @Pwnallthethings
I think you're forgetting that they're all thieves and quite comfortable with the company of thieves around them.
I think you're forgetting that they're all thieves and quite comfortable with the company of thieves around them.
@Springhead @Pwnallthethings Thieves love a chance to exploit weakness, and its hard to say 'comfortable' when their comfort has been steadily going down the tubes due to the faltering 'Special Operation'
A chance at owning everything in the face of a weak despot is far too tempting for this to be the only attempt.
NoTheOtherNick @Pwnallthethings We're just saying that he probably shouldn't be installing any hot tubs in a 4th floor apartment in Moscow any time soon...
Laure@Pwnallthethings did #Prigozhin lose it and was swept up in his own propaganda bubble? He runs a dirty but sometimes dedicated militia, but the Russian military is a cornerstone of the country, important in every corner of the country and for the top institutions that are left.
Stuart Gray@Pwnallthethings His main trump-card appears to be his effectiveness on the battlefield.
As soon as Russia achieves enough objectives (whatever they are now!?) in Ukraine that the main Russian army couldn't, or he stops being effective in achieving those objectives, he''ll be heading out the window of a very tall building.
Cat West@StuartGray @Pwnallthethings He’ll either be the scapegoat for why Putin’s war failed, or the hero who “coulda-woulda-shoulda-won the war” if he’d had a little more time… and hadn’t fallen off a building.
Malaclypse@Pwnallthethings In February 2022 I was sure that Zelenskyy's life expectancy was weeks not months, and here we are.
Johan Halse@Pwnallthethings he may already be dead. Things are pretty murky still but there’s speculation they got to his daughter and that’s why he aborted the attempt. Apparently Surovikin and Alekseev were in on the coup, along with two Spetsnaz brigades. It was a believable attempt and I still don’t really understand why they scuttled it https://gulagu.net/news/2023-06-25-2602.html
Mark Hughes@Pwnallthethings Putin saved his Presidency by the skin of his teeth but has lost power. But to whom?
Pusher Of Pixels (old account)@Pwnallthethings or perhaps change the signature on the warrant.
alapite@Pwnallthethings He may have gotten Wagner’s death warrant as an organisation temporarily delayed, but Prigozhin himself is now a dead man walking. He won’t make it to the end of the year unless someone takes Putin out first. #wagner #russia
sike@Pwnallthethings Official doesn’t mean much I suspect
ATellurian@Pwnallthethings chances disgruntled Wagner troops make an attempt on Prigozhin?
Montana Magpie@Pwnallthethings — IIRC, a lot of prominent Russian folks tend to die of unsigned, unofficial death warrants. I certainly would not want to be in Russia with Putin thinking about me the way he must think about Prigozhin. Would you agree?
Tim Hadley@Pwnallthethings does Putin ever unsign those, though? His antagonists always eventually seem to fall suddenly ill, or out a window
Alexander Ruthol@Pwnallthethings
Putin never honors deals.
Putin never honors deals.
mkb@Pwnallthethings Can you expound on that a bit?
To my mind, Prigozhin decided to shoot the moon, took the Queen of Spades, then decided to back out. How does one come back from that?
Garrett Wollman@Pwnallthethings At least until Putin gets tired of Lukashenko and the "Union State" becomes a bit more united.
Peter Henry@Pwnallthethings - may he have a peaceful life living in quiet retirement in Salisbury
Pomegranate County Irregulars@Pwnallthethings In my naive, don’t really know nutthin’ manner, I think along these lines.
On one hand, he made Putin look weak.
On the other, I suspect he’s—to borrow a term from The Sopranos—an earner (and maybe sharing more profits from the Africa enterprise smoothed out some things today), and it seems his goal was not to run the hot dog stand, but chase incompetent military leadership.
But that first hand is a doozy and Belarus doesn’t strike me as a real safe harbor.