FleckJun 6, 2023
Baldur Bjarnason

Your reminder that I've written a book on the business risks of generative AI. "The Intelligence Illusion"

https://illusion.baldurbjarnason.com/

Stuff I cover (not exhaustive):

- AGI is not happening any time soon.
- AGI and anthropomorphism will cripple your ability to think clearly about AI
- The AI industry has a long history of snake oil and fraud
- These models copy more than you think
- Hallucinations are still a thing and aren't going away.
- AI "reasoning" is quite broken
- Security is a shit show

The Intelligence Illusion (Second Edition): Why generative models are bad for business

Available in PDF and EPUB

Apr 30, 2023 at 10:59amWeb
Show threadSteve WilliamsApr 30, 2023

@baldur “AGI and anthropomorphism will cripple your ability to think clearly about AI”

💯 This.
Confederacy of Tech Dunces seem to be writing about their ‘encounters' with AI.

Show threadAlexander ThurowMay 1, 2023
@baldur Done deal ✅. Thanks for the book - looking forward to its contents… 🤓
Show threadAlexander ThurowMay 1, 2023
@baldur … oh, and there is more: https://store.baldurbjarnason.com/
So many books, so little time 🫠!
Baldur Bjarnason's Store

Show threaddauwheMay 3, 2023
@baldur I just bought the book this morning and it's exactly what I needed. I have not seen a clearer description of how generative AI works, what it might be good for, and what the risks are. The references alone are worth the price of the book.
Show threadBaldur BjarnasonMay 3, 2023
@dauwhe So glad to hear that! Thank you 👍
Show threadSimon ZerafaMay 13, 2023

@baldur

@riskydotbiz @thegrugq

Well at least I don't have to write this now 🙂🤷‍♂️

#ITFad #SnakeOil

Show threadthe grugqMay 13, 2023
@simonzerafa @baldur @riskydotbiz sweet
Show threadSue StrongMay 18, 2023
@baldur definitely going to get your book as I have concerns about AI. Only thing I might try is Midjourney to see how creative it is creating images. I would not trust it for facts or writing. I prefer experts in their field for facts, human creativity for writing. I read about one AI that had issues, think Bing, so no to interact with it.
Show threadRobert PickeringJun 3, 2023
@baldur
Thank you, looks really interesting.
Show threadResunaAug 2, 2023
@baldur I can't think of AI "reasoning" as anything more than the ability of humans to see patterns that aren't actually there.
Show threadGreg EganAug 2, 2023

@resuna @baldur

Exactly, and @baldur has a great essay on that!

https://softwarecrisis.dev/letters/llmentalist/

The LLMentalist Effect: how chat-based Large Language Models rep…

The new era of tech seems to be built on superstitious behaviour

Out of the Software Crisis
Show threadResunaAug 2, 2023

@gregeganSF @baldur And it's not "accidental". Since Eliza chatbots have been trying to "pass the Turing Test" by tricking humans into falling for the con. Weizenbaum found people's tendency to anthropomorphize Eliza disturbing but that didn't stop other researchers from enthusiastically adopting deception by design.

The result: chatbots that are designed to fool humans.

Show threadWillAug 2, 2023
@baldur
also:
You can always suppress a human's wage growth potential, but publicly-traded corporations exist solely to grow profits. If they manage to displace enough human labor to corner certain jobs, they can keep charging more and more. If AI persists, I'd guess that in less than ten years it'll cost more than the equivalent human labor.
Show threadl'empathie mécaniqueAug 2, 2023
@baldur I got interested in “no AGIs” thesis, but there’s nothing like that in ToC. Am I missing something?
Show threadBaldur BjarnasonAug 2, 2023

@dpwiz I don’t really spend any time debunking AGI except insofar as I cover it in an early chapter, which happens to be available online as well: https://softwarecrisis.dev/letters/ai-bird-brains-silicon-valley/

AGI doesn’t exist yet and probably won’t ever, so I didn’t want to spend much time on it in a practical book about business risks.

Artificial General Intelligence and the bird brains of Silicon V…

The biggest risk of generative AI is believing in the myth of AGI.

Out of the Software Crisis
Show threadl'empathie mécaniqueAug 2, 2023

@baldur I’ve only skimmed and searched for a few keywords, but the overall point of the article is “LLMs are not AGIs” (on which I totally agree).

Unfortunately I didn’t find the “AGIs are impossible” parts. Well, given the overall focus on the status quo, that’s fair. Thanks, anyway!

Show threadAndrew SingletonOct 17, 2023

@baldur As someone who is deeply interested in AI and can see a massive potential for a net good in development of a more intelligent system as an aid to people?

AI especially in the space of art generation and chatGPT style linguistic modeling AI.... is a mirage that carnival barkers are trying to sell as the real thing.