This seems very important and worth ongoing study:

“Once again, results suggest a rise in diversity as the 10 biggest server contribution to the Fediverse is reduced by more than 10%. So, even if the biggest servers are accumulating more users, it seems that the Fediverse is becoming more decentralized.”

@fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediversenews

https://socialhub.activitypub.rocks/t/analysis-of-fediverse-diversity-in-terms-of-decentralization/3252

Analysis of Fediverse Diversity in terms of Decentralization

Hello! Following a previous analysis (!it’s in catalan language!) and recovering the interest on the Fediverse, I’ve extended my analysis focusing in software diversity in that case. The two time points analyzed are from September 2022 and May 2023. In the initial analysis above there is a mistake. The dataset used is obtained using script based on this code written by @spla. Before getting into the analysis itself, I want to state that the active users measure is somehow confusing. Some ser...

SocialHub
@tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediversenews Interesting! Although there are some quirks in the data, with joindiaspora and diasp.org (neither of which are Mastodon) in last March's accounts and not the current list, and with mastodon.cloud and gc2.jp going from over 10% of MAU to not appearing at all in the latest statistics.
@jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @[email protected]

Also, it'd be nice to know something about what comprises all the "others", how many accounts do those instances have, how many of them are there?

Otherwise, it'll be interesting to track this going forward because mastodon.social right now is growing faster than it did between March and 17 May ... the picture could very well look different when comparing May to August.
@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

>Also, it’d be nice to know something about what comprises all the “others”, how many accounts do those instances have, how many of them are there?

Others means all the rest! Which means 21089 in May (as shown in the first table).

>Otherwise, it’ll be interesting to track this going forward because mastodon.social right now is growing faster than it did between March and 17 May … the picture could very well look different when comparing May to August.

Totally true! I would like to take monthly pictures (with the help of @spla, which is the author of the API query script).
@[email protected] @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @[email protected] @spreadmastodon @spla

Thanks for the reply!

Any chance others can get their hands on the data set?
@[email protected] @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @[email protected] @spreadmastodon @spla also, another question … any insights on your your data set and its creation would differ from any of the others out there like fedidb or instances.social?

@maegul I get the dataset from all peers of my server and then from all peers of my server's peers. After collecting all those peers, my code get the nodeinfo URL of all of them and ask it for users and MAU data, so only *alive* servers data is saved to the dataset.
Here is the code https://git.mastodont.cat/spla/stats
The bot @fediverse is publishing global registered users and MAU.

@marcelcosta @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

stats

Get and publish all fediverse's servers stats: total alive servers, total registered users and total Monthly Active Users (MAU)

Forgejo: Beyond coding. We forge.

@maegul you are welcome! by the way, you can ask any server or soft data to it, check its profile to see how you can do that.

@fediverse @marcelcosta @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

@spla @maegul @fediverse @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @fediversenews @spreadmastodon Wow, I found a huge mistake in my analysis!

The first time point it's not from March but from September! I am a bit embarrassed, but this is what happens when you rush because of time (and also, chaos in date format).

In fact, this makes more sense and is also interesting because it seems that some months after big October wave, it seems that Fediverse is more decentralized.
@[email protected] @spla @fediverse @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @[email protected] @spreadmastodon

I've got the impression that it was somewhat necessary that mastodon be more decentralised in order to take on all the new users as the larger instances, or some of them, struggled. mastodon.social, for example, didn't really gain more users from Jan to March, IIRC.

@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @spreadmastodon Sure, these waves have overloaded even not-that-big instances, causing them to close registration for a time. From September, the number of servers has increased by 3.

If we had a historical of the server picture, would be really interesting to trace the movements and evolution of the Fediverse…

FediDB - Developer Tools for ActivityPub

Developer Tools for ActivityPub

@jdp23 @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @spla @fediversenews That is interesting! There are snapshots from prior to Octobers wave and also from October, November, December, etc… So we can monitor what happened with that wave, what was the dynamics of users.

Yes! Even though the data's noisy and incomplete there are clear differences in dynamics in different time periods. For example (I think, if I did the math right)

9/20/2022 to 12/7/2022: mastodon.social + 71K
mastdn.social +80K

12/7/2022 to 3/25/2023:
mastodon.social +115K
mstdn.social +41K

3/25/2023 - 5/1/2023:
mastodon.social +91K
mastn.social +3.6K.

[EDIT: correcting some of the data]

@marcelcosta @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @spla @fediversenews

@marcelcosta
An update on this: @spla's been archiving statistics for the last week at https://git.mastodont.cat/spla/stats/src/branch/main/dataset and the trend continues:

mastodon.social: +13K
mstdn.social: +400

It'll be interesting to see what effect the reddit influx has has on overall fediverse software and instance size diversity.

@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @fediversenews

stats

Get and publish all fediverse's servers stats: total alive servers, total registered users and total Monthly Active Users (MAU)

Forgejo: Beyond coding. We forge.
@jdp23 @[email protected] @spla @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @[email protected]

So that's ~5.5x quicker growth per existing user (~30x quicker in absolute terms) between mastodon.social and the next largest english speaking mastodon instance, where mastodon.social is already ~5.5x larger.

Anyone want to nominate a numerical threshold beyond which it's unquestionably a problem of some sort?

@maegul well if nobody else wants to I'll take a crack at it. If mastodon.social is growing more per-existing-user than other largeish sites (so a ratio of > 1.0) I would say it's unquestionably increasing centralization.

To me ratios like last fall -- where some other largish sites were increasing faster than .social not only per-existing-user but in absolute terms -- would be healthy at this point

@tchambers @fediversereport @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @spreadmastodon @marcelcosta

@jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spla @fediverse @[email protected] @spreadmastodon @[email protected]

Makes sense. Interestingly, we are well past that and unlikely to return without some drastic change (like the default instance situation changing).

@maegul @jdp23 @marcelcosta @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @fediversenews

I think the point of @spla work was: big servers are growing dramatically, but the whole Fedi is getting more decentralized FASTER… if that is still true, then I don’t see a centralizing problem at this point.

@tchambers @maegul @jdp23 @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @fediversenews @spla That were my conclusions, yes!

Talking about instances, because at the software level there has been a big centralization.

@[email protected] @tchambers @jdp23 @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @fediverse @[email protected] @spla

Wasn't the cutoff date for your analysis early enough such that the recent growth of mastodon.social due to being the default instance may have been missed?

@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @spreadmastodon Sure, but I would like to wait a bit more to understand the trend.

I thought that mastodon.social visibility in media would have centralized the fediverse in October wave and after some months the result was the opposite! So, I would advice for some perspective.

@[email protected] @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @[email protected] @spreadmastodon

I don't know, but I was under the impression that during early or middle parts of the migration wave mastodon.social wasn't ready to scale up so much and so the load had to be spread out.

Now they've built an ability to scale as needed: AFAIU, mastodon.social runs on kubernetes now. I'd imagine the only limitation on their ability to scale relatively quickly is their finances, and I don't know if anyone knows anything about that. Though, I would imagine being in even greater demand would only provide more opportunities to get more funding.
@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @spreadmastodon That makes sense! I recently analyzed last splaDS entries and that would be the trend, although macro variation was minimal.

I'll publish the analysis as soon as I have time.

@marcelcosta looking forward to it!

@tchambers Marcel's original numbers from showed significant decentralization since last September but from the info in the archive.org snapshots it seems to me like there was a big decentralization was last fall (when as @maegul says .social closed regs for a while) and at least the US/Western European Mastodon world has been re-centralizing since late March

@fediversereport @spla @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

Looking at @spla's data for the week between 5/28 and 6/4, the changes in users are

Total Mastodon users: +93K
pravda.me: +57K
.social: +13K
pawoo: +3K
everything else: +20K

which has .social capturing at least 40% of the non-Russian/non-Japanese new users. That's a lot!

@marcelcosta @tchambers @maegul @fediversereport @spla @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

@jdp23 @tchambers @maegul @fediversereport @spla @fediversenews @spreadmastodon

Hi! I’ve found the time to analyze a bit more data from spla’s dataset.

First, the absolute number of accounts by software (with mastodon, left, or without mastodon, right).

And then the distribution as a % of the known fediverse (again with and without mastodon).

It is very clear the entry of kbin and growth of lemmy, also. Particularly in the MAU measure.

@marcelcosta Very interesting! When the Threadiverse stuff started to ramp up I was very glad that @spla was capturing the data on a daily basis.

Do we know how MAU are counted on kbin and Lemmy ... in particular if somebody up/downvotes do they get counted as active?

@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport

@jdp23 @spla @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport That’s a good question! Maybe spla knows it… :)

But remember that we are measuring active accounts, so if some account is interacting by voting, its an active account for sure!

@marcelcosta I'm looking at the numbers on https://fedidb.org/software/lemmy and lemmy.world has 30,000 new users in the last week but only 8,600 MAU, I am curious how far the other 70% of signups got.

@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @spla

FediDB, Fediverse Network Statistics

FediDB is a cutting-edge service providing detailed statistics and insights into the Fediverse network.

@jdp23 @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @spla Interesting, so we might be underestimating the lemmy growth...
@[email protected] @jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spla

I've read a lemmy dev define active user as someone who's made at least one post. So yes, there would almost certainly be many users who are "lurkers" and only read and maybe up\down vote. In fact, the MAU / User ratio might be pretty good?

What defines "active" for other platforms?
@[email protected] @jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spla

I think I'd always presumed "active" meant that they had actually signed in at least one in the time window but not necessarily done anything.
@maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla I think in mastodon and pleroma are accounts that signed out.

MAU/users is an interesting measure, although some servers reach higher than 100%, as I commented in the socialjub post.

@[email protected] @tchambers @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla

MAU/users is an interesting measure, although some servers reach higher than 100%, as I commented in the socialjub post.Yes, but if lemmy's measure is more a measure of "posting" users and other platforms are more "at least reading" users, then the MAU/User ratio for lemmy is an entirely different thing, and arguably pretty good right now (??).

Don't know about kbin though ... I've heard someone say that their MAU numbers can't be trusted as they're doing something not quite right.

@maegul @fediversereport @jdp23 @spla @marcelcosta

In the social media space in general, analytics researchers consider an active user one who logs in at least once, even if they don't post, or engage on anything.

@tchambers If that's Lemmy's MAU definition then 70%+ of the people who created accounts on lemmy.world, sh.itjust.works, and lemmynsfw (all new sites in the last month) didn't even manage to log in ... if so, well, that certainly points to an area for improvement! My guess though is that it might well be a measurement artifact.

@maegul @fediversereport @spla @marcelcosta

@jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spla @[email protected]

Dug up the statement (from nutomic):
https://lemmy.ml/comment/500254

It’s the sum of new user accounts that posted at least once.

Average Lemmy Active Users by Day after recent decision made by Reddit - Lemmy

threadcount (@[email protected])

Pausing this bot for a while. There's a very large number of new Lemmy instances with a few active users, but thousands of registered accounts (seemingly spam). Total user counts should be considered inaccurate until this spam account issue is fixed! You can learn more about this here: https://github.com/LemmyNet/lemmy/issues/2355 (but please don't spam the Lemmy developers with requests to fix this; they're aware and have a lot on their plates).

botsin.space

@jdp23 @fediversenews @fediversereport @maegul @spla @spreadmastodon @tchambers

And another set of plots, trying to understand server typology (in the sense of size) by software an diversity.

First, a barplot showing the mean of accounts or MAU per server by software (axis in logarithmics to resolve better the differences!).

Second plot with the same information in Y axis but adding X axis with the total ammount of accounts. In this case analysis only for MAU.

We can see that Kbin and brighteon have the bigest mean servers, or that calckey, akkoma or pleroma have smaller mean server than mastodon.

Next, I have applied the diversity indexes Shannon (evenness) and Simpson (diversity) to server, account and active account distribution by software.

The first we can see that diversity has a small trend to increase, with a clear acceleration in MAU (probably due to kbin and lemmy increase in active accounts).

The latter plot measures these indexes within each software. Interestingly, the software with higher diversity in active users is owncast! Which makes sense as they are single user servers…

Another interesting observation is that mastodons diversity is similar (slightly higher) than calckey and akkoma, and clearly higher than pleroma.

Finally, is interesting to see that while lemmy is increasing its diversity, kbin is decreasing it! My hypothesis is that the first is growing and distributing on more new servers, while the latter is growing on one or few servers.

@fediversenews @fediversereport @jdp23 @maegul @spla @spreadmastodon @tchambers I’ll add three more plots addressing the instance distribution this time.

First, a plot showing distribution as percentage stratifying by the top 10 servers in accounts (the rest are grouped in “Others” category).

Second, I have plotted an ordered list of servers (in X axis) and their number of accounts. In theory, the bigger the area below the curve the more distributed the Fediverse. I’m exploring this visualization, so what do you think?

Finally, I have applied the Shannon (evenness) and Simpson (diversity) indexes to server distribution by time. There is some dynamics! Although take into account that scales are pretty small, so lets not overestimate minor differences :).

There is a peak around 6th of June which seems due to a loss of contact with pravda.me, which is regained next day. So this might be an technical artifact.

Социальная сеть - Правда (by mastodon)

«Вот скажи мне, американец, в чём сила? Разве в деньгах? Вот и брат говорит, что в деньгах. У тебя много денег, и чего? Я вот думаю, что сила в правде: у кого Правда, тот и сильнее» (с) Данила Багров.

Mastodon hosted on pravda.me

@marcelcosta @maegul @jdp23 @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @spla @fediversenews

yeah pravda.me is an odd one. That appears to me to be such a propaganda site, I almost would say I'm not sure it fits in the study as human activity but may be all paid trolls.

@tchambers @maegul @jdp23 @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @spla @fediversenews May be! Although my intention is not to categorize each server but analyze them as a whole. Not meaning that is not interesting that analysis! But I don’t have the time to manually verifying them and maybe both views are interesting.

@marcelcosta
I have a slight suggestion to change the color of the unspecified instances to other than white.
At first glance I've thought this area was empty data.
Maybe pale or semitransparent colours would keep the differentiation of data type.
(It may be an autistic “thing", yet may be useful to some, I think.)

@maegul @jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @spla @fediversenews

@dzwiedziu @maegul @jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @spla @fediversenews

I have a slight suggestion to change the color of the unspecified instances to other than white.

Absolutely! I have to do it for next analysis.

Maybe pale or semitransparent colours would keep the differentiation of data type.

I’m not sure if I am following you here…

Thanks for the suggestion!

@marcelcosta

> > Maybe pale or semitransparent colours would keep the differentiation of data type.
>
> I’m not sure if I am following you here…

Just thoughts about the potential colors. Trough on the second glance I may have suggested colors that are already used.
You may ignore this part ^_^'

@maegul @jdp23 @tchambers @fediversereport @spreadmastodon @spla @fediversenews

Some pretty stark numbers over the last three months (5/25/2023 to 8/25/2023)

mastodon.social: +402K users, +92K MAU
mstdn.social +13K users, -2K MAU
mastodon.online: +5K users, -.5K MAU
mastodon.world: :+12K users, -6K MAU
mas.to: +6K users, -2K MAU

@marcelcosta @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews

@jdp23 @maegul @tchambers @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews Interesting! I have been taken a daily snapshot from InstanceSocial (as splas dataset got anavailable) from June, I’ll try to take a look these days.

@marcelcosta @jdp23 @maegul @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews

Also: onboarding flow for the new Mastodon 4.2 beta vastly improved… so will be curious if sites with that show improved rates of sign ups or retention. Mastodon.social was one…

@tchambers @jdp23 @maegul @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews

Its curious how they all show a similar pattern (I have included a smaller one from Catalonia). I have to be sure is not an artifact, but it seams that there was increase starting July that is reflected in the active users.

Another observation is that statuses accumulation (is not by month) seems quite linear.

@marcelcosta
@maegul The jump in active users in early July was when Xitter rate-limited. @victor mentioned similar dynanics on tooters.org

@tchambers it'll be interesting to see what effect the onboarding change have. Do you know when .social started deployed the new onboarding flow?

@fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews

@[email protected] @tchambers @jdp23 @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @[email protected]

I’d guess that the similar pattern across instances is a subtle but important phenomenon … it suggests that mastodon.social isn’t a categorically better onboarding service just one that sucks up more of the incoming traffic.

Otherwise, a rough look at the numbers shows mastodon.social was taking ~90% of all new users. Of that continues over time it won’t be too long before it’s on its way to bring half of mastodon, presuming future user growth of course!

On which, those MAU graphs are striking. Didn’t realise they fell back down to near base level after the spike. I suppose the rate limit problem resolved itself and those users were mostly bored. Mastodon could maybe do with a more active definition of active user like lemmy’s to discount the bored lurkers … it might be a more stable metric.
Yep, it's always been the case that most people who check out Mastodon don't stick around. But it's not just Mastodon, the same's true for other social networks. I was just looking at Twitter numbers from back in 2013; only 23% of the people who had signed up for accounts were still active, and most of the active users hadn't tweeted in the last month. Mastodon's numbers on fedidb are somewhat lower (around 17.5%, although that doesn't take servers that no longer exist into account), but certainly in the ballpark. Some long-running instances have much higher retention -- chaos.social and kind.social are over 50%, tech.lgbt and tech.lgbt are both over 30% -- but then again they don't have open registration.

mastodon.social's about average in terms what percentage of signups stick around ... it'll be interesting to see what affect the new onboarding has, although it'll take a while for that to be show up in the publicly visible statistics.

@maegul @[email protected] @tchambers @jdp23 @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @[email protected]
@jdp23 @tchambers @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @fediversereport @marcelcosta @maegul the ones who stick around seen pretty good though 👍
@markmalowany @jdp23 @tchambers @jdp23 @spla @fediverse @fediversenews @fediversereport @maegul I would say that is quite “normal” that the retention for a new social tool is low when people is trying it without its friends. Without saying that there aren’t things to improve (both technical and social), social tools are in a tight competition for users attention and time. So I am not surprised that new social tools are not stimuli enough without acquaintances or famous.

@jdp23 @maegul @marcelcosta @tchambers @jdp23 @fediversereport @fediverse @spla @fediversenews @mastodonmigration

I’d love to know which of my hundreds of followers haven’t posted or looked at the platform in years.

@tchambers and I are talking about centralization again at https://indieweb.social/@tchambers/111631543303868122

Tim's data shows that there isn't any sign of .social hurting traffic to other instances over the last year.

My is in terms of monthly active users, .social has gone from about 17.5% of Mastodon's total MAU in May to 27% today.

@marcelcosta it would be great to update the centralization analyses, both for Mastodon and the fedierse as a whole!

@maegul
@fediversereport @spla @fediverse @fediversenews

Tim Chambers (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image @jdp23 @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] - I think most of those tensions were imagined or hypothetical ones. Good news is that it turns out this did not occur - at least over the last year, show any signs of mastodon social hurting the traffic to other smaller mastodon sites Everyone hummed along.

Indieweb.Social

@jdp23 @marcelcosta @maegul @fediversereport @spla @fediverse @fediversenews

Thanks Jon: This was all quick back of the napkin analysis using Simliarweb for Mastodon.social and 4 other Mastodon servers over 12 months. Not extensive but a quick sample test to get a general vibe of things.

@jdp23 @tchambers @maegul @fediversereport @spla @fediverse @fediversenews Ey! I have read the conversation, it’s clear that there are several diferent visions of what the Fediverse should be :).

I will go back to the analysis once I have time during the Xmas holidays!