1/n
#WarInUkraine D+455 (May 24) PdS2 - Theaters
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russia

1/Numbers and men, less
2/Front X, Hyp. Z, plus more
3/Dniepr, left bank & #Crimea, more or less
4/Backstage, minus

USS Gerald Ford in 🇳🇴

2/n
Time machine,
If you missed #WarInUkraine column N°CDLIV-II, here it is👇

https://mastodon.world/@applepie110101/110418946835049398
https://twitter.com/applepie110101/status/1661046957178077186

3/n

1/Numbers and men, less

#Prigozhin delivered plausible casualty figures:
Out of 50,000 prisoners, he had 10,000 killed
With this garbage, the casualty ratio can't be 3:1, so I'm guessing that many
This gives 20-25K losses (50%)

4/n
According to the Pentagon leaks, we would have, for the battle of #Bakhmut :
35.5-43.5K 🇷🇺 losses (half of which are Wagner)
16K-17,5K 🇺🇦 losses

We are far from a 7:1 ratio and rather on a 3:1 ratio

5/n

2/Front X, Hyp. Z, plus

(i) diversionary operations at the ends of the front

For those south of #Kherson, see 3/

Raids operated in the depth of #Belgorod oblast (->#Gravoyron) have an important result: they extended the front line by 300 km!👇

7/n
to take out a detachment of 13 vehicles and a few hundred men!

The two #AFU detachments probably made a withdrawal to their home base (#VelikaPesaryvka)👇

10/n

Rather than writing this nonsense, I advise adopting the style of the CEMA👇 of the #AFU, in his daily communiqué: not a word about these operations, which did not exist

11/n
The effect of these cross-border raids 👇is major
It forces 🇷🇺 to transfer troops to the border of #Belgorod Oblast, which they have started to do

Russian vehicles destroyed during the raid 👇

12/n
Additional length of front to defend is 300 km, which may require 30K-60K soldiers

Mortar shelling of Russian troops by the Legion for the Freedom of #Russia👇

13/n
As for the nuclear warhead depot "Belgorod-22", it has been emptied 👇

https://twitter.com/Winter_l1/status/1661164841459916800?s=20

14/n
(ii) TDB

🟢Weather
🟢"no-fly-zone" (Patriot+F16), endowed
🟠Testing & modeling of the front line, generalized
🟠Preparation in depth, started
-destroy PC, EW, DM, logistics
-collapse fuel chain
🟠Ope. deception, started
🟠Offensive, Front X

15/n
Cross-border raids cause significant troop movement 🇷🇺, which should provide opportunities
Lengthening of the front allows the offensive 🇺🇦 which will wait for the reopening of the weather window👇

(iii) Weather environment,

17/n
3/Dniepr, left bank & #Crimea, more or less

(i) #Kherson

#RF conducting large-scale defensive operations: mining the banks of the Dnieper and laying anti-boarding obstacles
I evaluate as unlikely, the crossing of the Dnieper above the #NovaKakhovka dam