“#Ukraine May 24, updates from @escortert. in two parts -> PdS1, #Donbass Theater -> PdS2, #Zaporizhia #Crimea #Russia Here is the PdS1 for today 👇”
1/n
#WarInUkraine D+455 (May 24) PdS2 - Theaters
#Zaporizhzhya
#Crimea
#Russia
1/Numbers and men, less
2/Front X, Hyp. Z, plus more
3/Dniepr, left bank & #Crimea, more or less
4/Backstage, minus
USS Gerald Ford in 🇳🇴
2/n
Time machine,
If you missed #WarInUkraine column N°CDLIV-II, here it is👇
https://mastodon.world/@applepie110101/110418946835049398
https://twitter.com/applepie110101/status/1661046957178077186
#Ukraine May 23, updates from @escortert. report in two parts -> PdS1, #Donbass theater #Russia -> PdS2, #Zaporizhzhya #Crimea Here is the PdS2 for today 👇
3/n
1/Numbers and men, less
#Prigozhin delivered plausible casualty figures:
Out of 50,000 prisoners, he had 10,000 killed
With this garbage, the casualty ratio can't be 3:1, so I'm guessing that many
This gives 20-25K losses (50%)
4/n
According to the Pentagon leaks, we would have, for the battle of #Bakhmut :
35.5-43.5K 🇷🇺 losses (half of which are Wagner)
16K-17,5K 🇺🇦 losses
We are far from a 7:1 ratio and rather on a 3:1 ratio
5/n
2/Front X, Hyp. Z, plus
(i) diversionary operations at the ends of the front
For those south of #Kherson, see 3/
Raids operated in the depth of #Belgorod oblast (->#Gravoyron) have an important result: they extended the front line by 300 km!👇
7/n
to take out a detachment of 13 vehicles and a few hundred men!
The two #AFU detachments probably made a withdrawal to their home base (#VelikaPesaryvka)👇
10/n
Rather than writing this nonsense, I advise adopting the style of the CEMA👇 of the #AFU, in his daily communiqué: not a word about these operations, which did not exist
11/n
The effect of these cross-border raids 👇is major
It forces 🇷🇺 to transfer troops to the border of #Belgorod Oblast, which they have started to do
Russian vehicles destroyed during the raid 👇
12/n
Additional length of front to defend is 300 km, which may require 30K-60K soldiers
Mortar shelling of Russian troops by the Legion for the Freedom of #Russia👇
13/n
As for the nuclear warhead depot "Belgorod-22", it has been emptied 👇
https://twitter.com/Winter_l1/status/1661164841459916800?s=20
14/n
(ii) TDB
🟢Weather
🟢"no-fly-zone" (Patriot+F16), endowed
🟠Testing & modeling of the front line, generalized
🟠Preparation in depth, started
-destroy PC, EW, DM, logistics
-collapse fuel chain
🟠Ope. deception, started
🟠Offensive, Front X
15/n
Cross-border raids cause significant troop movement 🇷🇺, which should provide opportunities
Lengthening of the front allows the offensive 🇺🇦 which will wait for the reopening of the weather window👇
(iii) Weather environment,
17/n
3/Dniepr, left bank & #Crimea, more or less
(i) #Kherson
#RF conducting large-scale defensive operations: mining the banks of the Dnieper and laying anti-boarding obstacles
I evaluate as unlikely, the crossing of the Dnieper above the #NovaKakhovka dam
20/n
I rate an incursion 🇺🇦 into #Crimea as unlikely because it is not necessary👇
Cutting off logistical axes is highly likely if #AFU makes it to the Sea of Azov
Arsenal 🇺🇦 (F-16s and long-range missiles) should interdict ports and airfields
21/n
There is smoke on the Kerch bridge 👇
What did the Russians want to hide (a new AA system?)?
applepie110101