Do you know Smeed's Law?

The British engineer stated speed of urban traffic is self-regulatingโ€”attempts to increase it are self-defeating.

Avg. speed for #London traffic in 1949: 9 mph
Avg. speed of London traffic 65 years later: 8.98 mph.

Bicycles have *always* been faster.

@straphanger

This is desperatly fascinating.

@straphanger it's actually similar to how the original ethernet protocol (CSMA/CD) works.
If too many people try to use a shared channel, the speed will drop and people will give up, self regulating.
@Sh41 @straphanger Annoyingly, there are multiple ways to increase *average* flow rates over multiple routes, but they're thwarted if a small percentage attempt to take the fastest routes, and then everyone slows down.
@straphanger
When I was a young whippersnapper, I could beat the bus to the main library from Pinellas Point in St. Petersburg.

@straphanger Separate to the benefits of bikes: One of my pet peeves is that because of Smeed's law, one shouldn't pay for expensive infrastructure improvements in hotspots like London (only bike paths and other cheap options...).

Instead one should invest *around* them to mitigate by making surrounding towns more attractive instead by e.g. guaranteeing frequent commuter services for a long time period (decade at least). Much more bang for the buck, and spreading demand over far larger area.

@straphanger Reminds me of the article by @pluralistic on Disneyland, traffic, and the idea of the โ€œRed Queensโ€™s Raceโ€ https://doctorow.medium.com/managing-aggregate-demand-part-iv-8d2022a5125b
Managing aggregate demand (Part IV) - Cory Doctorow - Medium

This is Part IV in this series. In Part I, I opened the with news that Disneyland Paris is getting rid of its Fastpasses in favor of a per-ride, per-person premium to skip the line, and explored theโ€ฆ

Medium