Y'know how "#realist" became a synonym for "#asshole?" As in, "I'm not a racist, I'm just a #RaceRealist?" That "realism" is also used to discredit the idea of democracy, among a group of self-styled "#LibertarianElitists," who claim that social science proves that democracy doesn't work - and can't work.

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If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read/share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/04/analytical-democratic-theory/#epistocratic-delusions

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Pluralistic: Ostromizing democracy (04 May 2023) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

You've likely encountered elements of this ideology in the wild. Perhaps you've heard about how our #CognitiveBiases make us incapable of deliberating, that "reasoning was not designed to pursue the truth. Reasoning was designed by evolution to help us win arguments."

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Or maybe you've heard that voters are "#RationallyIgnorant," choosing not to become informed about politics because their vote doesn't have enough influence to justify the cognitive expenditure of figuring out how to cast it.

There's the #BackfireEffect, the idea that rational argument doesn't make us change our minds, but rather, drives us to double-down on our own cherished beliefs.

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As if that wasn't bad enough, there's the #Asch effect, which says that we will change our minds based on pressure from the majority, even if we know they're wrong.

Finally, there's the fact that the public Just Doesn't Understand Economics. When you compare the views of the average person to the views of the average PhD economist, you find that the public sharply disagrees with such obvious truths as "we should only worry about how big the pie is, not how big my slice is?"

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These fools just can't understand that an economy where their boss gets richer and they get poorer is a good economy, so long as it's growing overall!

That's why noted "realist" #PeterThiel thinks women shouldn't be allowed to vote. Thiel says that mothers are apt to sideline the "science" of economics for the soppy, sentimental idea that children shouldn't starve to death.

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That leads to votes for politicians who are willing to tax rich people. Thus do we find ourselves on #TheRoadToSerfdom:

https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/

Other realists go even further, suggesting that anyone who disagrees with orthodox (#ChicagoSchool) economists shouldn't be allowed to vote: "[a]nyone who opposes surge pricing should be disenfranchised. That’s how we should decide who decides in epistocracy."

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The Education of a Libertarian

Cato Unbound

Add it all up and you get the various "libertarian" cases for abolishing democracy. Some of these libertarian elitists want to replace democracy with markets, because "markets impose an effective 'user fee' for irrationality that is absent from democracy.

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Others say we should limit voting to "Vulcans" who can pass a knowledge test about the views of neoclassical economists, and if this means that fewer Black people and women are eligible to vote because either condition is "negatively correlated" with familiarity with "politics," then so mote be it. After all, these groups are "much more likely than others to be mistaken about what they really need":

https://bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2015/03/the-demographic-argument-for-compulsory-voting-with-a-guest-appearance-by-the-real-reason-the-left-advocates-compulsory-voting/

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The Demographic Argument for Compulsory Voting, with a Guest Appearance by the Real Reason the Left Advocates Compulsory Voting - Bleeding Heart Libertarians

Recently, Obama advocated compulsory voting in a town hall meeting in Ohio. Since I decisively refuted the case for compulsory voting last year, I take it Obama doesn’t read the...

Bleeding Heart Libertarians

These arguments and some of their most gaping errors are rehearsed in an excellent *Democracy Journal* article by @henryfarrell, #HugoMercier, and #MelissaSchwartzberg (Mercier's research is often misinterpreted and misquoted by libertarian elitists to bolster their position):

https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/68/the-new-libertarian-elitists/

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The New Libertarian Elitists

What’s behind the dangerous new notion that democracy should be left to the well-educated.

Democracy Journal

The article is a companion piece to a new academic article in *#AmericanPoliticalScienceReview*, where the authors propose a new subdiscipline of #PoliticalScience, #AnalyticalDemocracyTheory:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/analytical-democratic-theory-a-microfoundational-approach/739A9A928A99A47994E4585059B03398

What's "Analytical Democracy Theory?" It's the systematic study of when and how collective decision-making works, and when it goes wrong.

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Analytical Democratic Theory: A Microfoundational Approach | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

Analytical Democratic Theory: A Microfoundational Approach - Volume 117 Issue 2

Cambridge Core

Because the libertarian elitists aren't completely, utterly wrong - there *are* times when groups of people make bad decisions. From that crumb of truth, the libertarian elitists theorize an entire nihilistic cake in which self-governance is impossible and where we fools and sentimentalists must be subjugated to the will of our intellectual betters, for our own good.

This isn't the first time libertarian political scientists have pulled this trick.

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You've probably heard of the "#TragedyOfTheCommons," which claims to be a "realist" account of what happens when people try to share something - a park, a beach, a forest - without anyone owning it. According to the "tragedy," these commons are inevitably ruined by "rational" actors who know that if they don't overgraze, pollute or despoil, someone else will, so they might as well get there first.

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The Tragedy of the Commons feels right, and we've all experienced some version of it - the messy kitchen at your office or student house-share, the litter in the park, etc. But the paper that brought us the idea of the Tragedy of the Commons, published in 1968 by #GarrettHardin in *Science*, was a hoax:

https://memex.craphound.com/2019/10/01/the-tragedy-of-the-commons-how-ecofascism-was-smuggled-into-mainstream-thought/

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“The Tragedy of the Commons”: how ecofascism was smuggled into mainstream thought – Cory Doctorow's MEMEX

Hardin didn't just claim that some commons turned tragic - he claimed that the tragedy was *inevitable*, and, moreover, that *every commons* had experienced a tragedy. But Hardin made it all up. It wasn't true. What's more, Hardin - an ardent #WhiteNationalist - used his "realist's account of the commons to justify colonization and genocide.

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After all, if the people who lived in these colonized places didn't have property rights to keep their commons from tragifying, then those commons were already doomed. The colonizers who seized their lands and murdered the people they found there were actually *saving* the colonized from their own tragedies.

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Hardin went on to pioneer the idea of #LifeboatEthics, a greased slide to mass-extermination of "inferior" people (Hardin was also a #eugenicist) in order to save our planet from "overpopulation."

Hardin's flawed account of the commons is a sterling example of the problem with #economism, the ideology that underpins neoclassical economics:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/10/27/economism/#what-would-i-do-if-i-were-a-horse

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Pluralistic: 27 Oct 2022 Substituting economics for politics is a failure – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

Economism was summed up in by Ely Devons who quipped ""If economists wished to study the horse, they wouldn’t go and look at horses. They’d sit in their studies and say to themselves, ‘What would I do if I were a horse?’"

Hardin asked himself "If I were reliant upon a commons, what would I do?" And, being a realist (that is, an asshole), Hardin decided that he would steal everything from the commons because that's what the other realists would do if he didn't get there first.

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Hardin didn't go and look at a commons. But someone else did.

#ElinorOstrom won the Nobel for her work studying the properties of successful, durable commons. She went and looked at commons:

https://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons

Ostom codified the circumstances, mechanisms and principles that distinguished successful commons from failed commons.

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Elinor Ostrom's 8 Principles for Managing A Commmons | On the Commons

Analytical Democratic Theory proposes doing for democratic deliberation what Ostrom did for commons: to create an empirical account of the methods, arrangements, circumstances and systems that produce good group reasoning, and avoid the pitfalls that lead to bad group reasoning. The economists' term for this is #microfoundations: the close study of interaction among individuals, which then produces a "macro" account of how to structure whole societies.

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Here are some examples of how microfoundations can answer some very big questions:

* Backfire effects: The original backfire effect research was a fluke. It turns out that in most cases, people who are presented with well-sourced facts and good arguments change their minds - but not always.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-019-09528-x

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Taking Fact-Checks Literally But Not Seriously? The Effects of Journalistic Fact-Checking on Factual Beliefs and Candidate Favorability - Political Behavior

Are citizens willing to accept journalistic fact-checks of misleading claims from candidates they support and to update their attitudes about those candidates? Previous studies have reached conflicting conclusions about the effects of exposure to counter-attitudinal information. As fact-checking has become more prominent, it is therefore worth examining how respondents respond to fact-checks of politicians—a question with important implications for understanding the effects of this journalistic format on elections. We present results to two experiments conducted during the 2016 campaign that test the effects of exposure to realistic journalistic fact-checks of claims made by Donald Trump during his convention speech and a general election debate. These messages improved the accuracy of respondents’ factual beliefs, even among his supporters, but had no measurable effect on attitudes toward Trump. These results suggest that journalistic fact-checks can reduce misperceptions but often have minimal effects on candidate evaluations or vote choice.

SpringerLink

* Rational ignorance: Contrary to the predictions of "rational ignorance" theory, people who care about specific issues become "#IssuePublics" who are *incredibly* knowledgeable about it, and deeply investigate and respond to candidates' positions:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/08913810608443650

Rational ignorance is a mirage, caused by giving people questionnaires about politics *in general*, rather than the politics that affects them directly and personally.

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* #Myside bias: Even when people strongly identify with a group, they are capable of filtering out "erroneous messages" that come from that group if they get good, contradictory evidence:

https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674237827

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The Enigma of Reason — Hugo Mercier, Dan Sperber

If reason is so useful and reliable, why didn't it evolve in other animals and why do humans produce so much thoroughly reasoned nonsense? Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber argue that reason is not geared to solitary use. It evolved to help justify our beliefs to others, evaluate their arguments, and better exploit our uniquely rich social environment.

* Majority bias: People are capable of rejecting the consensus of majorities, when the majority view is implausible, or when the majority is small, or when the majority is not perceived as benevolent. The Asch effect is "folklore": yes, people may *say* that they hold a majority view when they face social sanction for rejecting it, but that doesn't mean they've changed their minds:

https://alexandercoppock.com/guess_coppock_2020.pdf

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Notwithstanding all this, democracy's cheerleaders have some major gaps in the evidence to support their own view. Analytical Democratic Theory needs to investigate the nuts-and-bolts of when deliberation works and when it fails, including the tradeoffs between:

* "social comfort and comfort in expressing dissent":

https://sci-hub.se/10.1016/S0065-2601(05)37004-3

* "shared common ground and some measure of preexisting disagreement":

https://sci-hub.st/10.1037/0022-3514.91.6.1080

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Sci-Hub | So Right It’s Wrong: Groupthink and the Ubiquitous Nature of Polarized Group Decision Making. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 219–253 | 10.1016/S0065-2601(05)37004-3

* "group size and the need to represent diversity":

https://www.nicolas.claidiere.fr/wp-content/uploads/DiscussionCrowds-Mercier-2021.pdf

* "pressures for conformity and concerns for epistemic reputation":

https://academic.oup.com/princeton-scholarship-online/book/30811

Realism is a demand dressed up as an observation. Realists like #MargaretThatcher insisted "#ThereIsNoAlternative" to #neoliberalism, but what she meant was "stop trying to think of an alternative."

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Hardin didn't just claim that some commons turned tragic, he claimed that the tragedy of the commons was inevitable - that we shouldn't even bother trying to create #PublicGoods.

The Ostrom method - actually studying how something works, rather than asking yourself how it would work if everyone thought like you - is a powerful tonic to this, but it's not the only one.

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One of the things that makes #ScienceFiction so powerful is its ability to ask how a system would work under some different social arrangement.

It's a radical proposition. Don't just ask what the gadget does: ask who it does it *for* and who it does it *to*. That's the foundation of #Luddism, which is smeared as a technophobic rejection of technology, but which was only ever a social rejection of the specific economic arrangements of that technology.

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Specifically, the Luddites rejected the idea that machines should be "so easy a child could use them" in order to kidnap children from orphanages and working them to death at those machines:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/03/20/love-the-machine/#hate-the-factory

There are sf writers who are making enormous strides in imagining how deliberative tools could enable new democratic institutions. @r_emrys's stunning 2022 novel "A Half-Built Garden" is a tour-de-force:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/07/26/aislands/#dead-ringers

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Pluralistic: Podcasting “Gig Work Is the Opposite of Steampunk” (20 Mar 2023) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

I like to think that I make a small contribution here, too. My next novel, "The Lost Cause," is at root a tale of competing group decision-making methodologies, between post-Green New Deal repair collectives, seafaring anarcho-capitalist techno-solutionists, and terrorizing white nationalist militias (it's out in November):

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865939/the-lost-cause

eof/

The Lost Cause

It’s thirty years from now. We’re making progress, mitigating climate change, slowly but surely. But what about all the angry old people who can’t let ...

Macmillan Publishers

@pluralistic

Isn't science fiction acting here more like Economism than Ostromism? It's someone just asking themselves, "If I lived in this universe, what would I do?"

@pluralistic "Stop trying to think" is absolutely the underlying credo of the "debate me!" libertarian. There's a reason the whole conservative movement is actively trying to destroy education...other than the fact they can profit on the way. The flat-circle logic of "I believe I hold well-reasoned beliefs, therefore any argument against them is unreasonable, therefore anyone who argues is unreasonable, and any education informing that argument is unreasonable and etc., etc."
@specwill @pluralistic
Well, the libertarians were always fascinating, in that, when pressed, they would admit that they did not have solutions for a whole range of problems of running a working society, but they don't really care. 🤷