#Activism was essential throughout history to change #Mindsets. Today, we take the results of #CivilResistance for granted. Voting rights for all, end of colonialism, desegregation... Recently, #MassTurnout changed policy in Serbia, Georgia and (temporarily) in Israel, while it failed in France. However, so far there has not been any #Mainstream mass #ClimateMovement. This thread explores the climate movement in an attempt to understand what’s missing. 🧵 #ccmovement
1. Extinction Rebellion 2019 YouGov Poll
2. The 3.5% rule
3. Activism communicates Climate Science
4. Civil-Rights Protests Have Never Been Popular
5. The evidence of radical protests
6. Andreas Malm
7. Debunking Chenoweth
8. I back saboteurs
9. XR’s tilt towards the mainstream
10. Mass Movements start at the Dinner Table
11. The working-class
12. Media Coverage
13. 78% are not likely to protests
14. France’s Radical Climate Protests
15. The Climate Majority Project
#ccmovement

#ExtinctionRebellion had a measurable impact exactly 4 years ago:

“The sudden surge in concern is undoubtedly boosted by the publicity raised for the environmental cause by Extinction Rebellion, with the pressure group having staged mass protests in London over the course of April, and activism from Greta Thunberg during the same period.” #ccmovement

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/05/concern-environment-record-highs

Concern for the environment at record highs | YouGov

It is now seen as the third most pressing issue facing the nation

The '3.5% rule': How a #SmallMinority can change the world

“Overall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent Protests." #ccmovement

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world

The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world

Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.

BBC

Study: Activism and #CivilDisobedience help communicate the #Science of Climate Change

“A group of the world's top climate change biologists have published an editorial highlighting how #GlobalMovements of civil disobedience focused on climate change are playing an important role in increasing #PublicAwareness and engagement with issues of climate change.” #ccmovement

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-civil-disobedience-science-climate.html

Study: Activism and civil disobedience help communicate the science of climate change

A group of the world's top climate change biologists, including Professor Pete Smith from the University of Aberdeen, have published an editorial highlighting how global movements of civil disobedience focused on climate change are playing an important role in increasing public awareness and engagement with issues of climate change.

Phys.org

#CivilRightsProtests Have Never Been Popular

“As The Washington Post noted, only 22 percent of all Americans approved of the Freedom Rides, and only 28 percent approved of the sit-ins. The #VastMajority of Americans—60 percent—had “unfavorable” feelings about the March on Washington. As FiveThirtyEight notes, in 1966, 63 percent of Americans had a negative opinion of Martin Luther King.” #ccmovement

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/colin-kaepernick/541845/

Civil-Rights Protests Have Never Been Popular

Activists can’t persuade their contemporaries—they’re aiming at the next generation.

The Atlantic

#JustStopOil: do radical protests turn the public away from a cause? Here’s the #Evidence

"Pollsters concluded that the “sudden surge in concern is undoubtedly boosted by the publicity raised for the environmental cause by #ExtinctionRebellion”. There’s also evidence that home insulation has risen up the policy agenda since #InsulateBritain’s protests." #ccmovement

https://theconversation.com/just-stop-oil-do-radical-protests-turn-the-public-away-from-a-cause-heres-the-evidence-192901

Just Stop Oil: do radical protests turn the public away from a cause? Here’s the evidence

People want to shoot the messenger, but they do hear the message.

The Conversation

Climate diplomacy is hopeless, says author of How to Blow Up a Pipeline

"From 2018 onwards, #ExtinctionRebellion and the climate strike movement brought tens of thousands on to the streets. But even as #PublicOpinion swung behind their calls for radical change, emissions and investments in fossil fuels continued to grow." #ccmovement

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/21/climate-diplomacy-is-hopeless-says-author-of-how-to-blow-up-a-pipeline-andreas-malm

Climate diplomacy is hopeless, says author of How to Blow Up a Pipeline

Andreas Malm says he has no hope in ‘dominant classes’, and urges more radical approach to climate activism

The Guardian

Debunking the #Myths Behind #Nonviolent Civil Resistance

"Inclusion of 19th century (1800–99) cases and previously unanalyzed cases from the 20th century reveals that nonviolent campaigns experienced a 48% rate of success, whereas campaigns that adopted #UnarmedViolence were 61% successful, campaigns utilizing reactive unarmed violence were 60% successful, and 30% of fully violent campaigns were successful." #ccmovement

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0896920520913982

I back #Saboteurs who have acted with courage and coherence, but I won’t blow up a pipeline.

"I cannot say that Malm is wrong, and that non-violent action is more likely to succeed. After all, none of us have been here before. [...] My own belief is that our best hope is to precipitate a #SocialTipping: widening the concentric circles of those committed to systemic change until a critical threshold is reached, that flips the status quo." #ccmovement

https://www.monbiot.com/2023/05/02/careful-now/

Careful Now

Should we blow up pipelines? By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 28th April 2023 There’s a fundamental principle that should apply to every conflict. Don’t urge others to do what you are not prepared to do yourself. How many wars would be fought if the presidents or prime ministers who declared them were obliged…

George Monbiot

Will XR’s tilt towards the #Mainstream pay off?

"The #NonDisruptive approach had “brought businesses on to the streets who might not have come otherwise”, said Ben Tolhurst, a director at Business Declares, a non-profit network." #ccmovement

https://www.ft.com/content/ca066319-746a-4214-983e-03e74931168d

Will XR’s tilt towards the mainstream pay off?

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Financial Times

PM Modi calls for #MassMovement in global fight against climate change

"Modi said that an idea becomes a mass movement when it moves from "#DiscussionTables to #DinnerTables" as he called for people's participation and #Collective efforts in combating climate change." #ccmovement

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-modi-calls-for-mass-movement-in-global-fight-against-climate-change/article66740199.ece

PM Modi calls for mass movement in global fight against climate change

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that an idea becomes a mass movement when it moves from “discussion tables to dinner tables” as he called for people’s participation and collective efforts in combating climate change.

Jason Hickel on Twitter 🧵

"I don't know how to say this in a punchy, eloquent way... but the climate and environmentalist movements need to get very serious about creating #Alliances with #LabourMovements and #WorkingClass political formations. And fast..." #ccmovement

https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1653743870453116930

Jason Hickel on Twitter

“I don't know how to say this in a punchy, eloquent way... but the climate and environmentalist movements need to get very serious about creating alliances with labour movements and working-class political formations. And fast...”

Twitter

Climate change protest: a single radical gets more #MediaCoverage than thousands of marchers

"it’s not clear that @XR_UK’s new approach actually worked. Certainly if the idea was to attract more or better headlines, the results seem underwhelming." #ccmovement

https://theconversation.com/climate-change-protest-a-single-radical-gets-more-media-coverage-than-thousands-of-marchers-204845

Climate change protest: a single radical gets more media coverage than thousands of marchers

Media coverage of Extinction Rebellion’s mass protest was muted compared with that of Just Stop Oil’s snooker disruption.

The Conversation

The #Majority of the public believe #Protests rarely, if ever, make a difference

"The vast majority of Britons (76%) say they’ve never taken part in a public protest and nearly eight in ten of those people (78%) say they are not very likely, or not at all likely, to do so." #ccmovement

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/02/14/majority-public-believe-protests-rarely-if-ever-ma

The majority of the public believe protests rarely, if ever, make a difference | YouGov

Most Britons – including protestors themselves – say that disruptive protests do more to hinder than help a cause

Fire and concrete: will France’s model of #RadicalClimateProtest catch on?

"This month, Andreas Malm said in an interview it was France that was seeing the most exciting developments in environmental protest." #ccmovement

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/04/will-france-model-of-radical-climate-protest-catch-on

Fire and concrete: will France’s model of radical climate protest catch on?

As campaigning hots up around the world once again, eyes have been turning to the country that is taking things further

The Guardian

The Former Extinction Rebellion Campaigners Rallying A Climate Majority

"If the world is ever going to get serious on climate, it will be because a #MassMovement of citizen action insists on it. The #ClimateMajorityProject exists to grow this wave of action; helping the mass movement to become aware of itself." #ccmovement

https://www.desmog.com/2023/05/03/the-former-extinction-rebellion-campaigners-rallying-a-climate-majority/

The Former Extinction Rebellion Campaigners Rallying A Climate Majority

Governments show time and again they won’t deliver adequate climate solutions of their own accord. If the world is ever going to get serious on climate, it will be because a mass movement of citizen action insists on it.  Except, no such mobilisation of citizens yet exists across the global north. Accordingly, nothing like sufficient […]

DeSmog