From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"

by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell

First published: 13 November 2023

4.3 Future trends

"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.

"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).

"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.

"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.

"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]

"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange