When I want to understand how a virus originated, I always turn to "low confidence" assessments from some random bureaucrats in an agency that has no expertise in virology, genetics, or epidemiology.

Thank you, random Department of Energy people, for leaking your baseless speculation to the Wall Street Journal.

@maxkennerly SecEnergy Jennifer Granholm needs to don some shit kicking boots and tell her people to stick to their knitting -- energy.

Like we don't have enough going on right now in battery technology and nuclear threats to keep those random DOE leakers busy.

@maxkennerly DoE has experts in it, and I too have low confidence in it being a lab leak, but considering the GOP committee who no doubt leaked this... I'd go ahead and continue to wait for any solid evidence before writing any articles about it were it me.
@Beeks @maxkennerly problem is that all media has run with story without actually seeing report and many without reference to low confidence. Those who just read headlines may well file in all government lies file and further lower belief in science- which suits idiot GOP

@maxkennerly
The JGI guys are on this platform somewhere. They work for DoE and they know virology.
I think they're probably not allowed to be raising their voices right now...

I'm also sure none of them were involved in this statement.

But hey, I wish the Fox News people well with their attempts to retrieve damages. I think we could benefit from redomiciling many overly outsourced industries.

@dnavinci @maxkennerly

I did a search for 'virology' on the JGI portal, and came up with bupkis. Your mastodon instance screams that you know something I don't, though.

The question still remains, what's the DOE doing, pontificating on covid?

@skydog
Yeah, spycraft and foreign policy arent really a bailiwyck of that department, so I'm just as shocked as anyone. Mostly I'm surprised that Granholm would allow a statement like that that turns her department into more of a lightning rod than it already was. Almost every election cycle there a major conservative voice threatening to remove the whole dept.

1/2

@maxkennerly

@skydog
Regarding your search, virologists don't tend to use the word "virology" to describe their pet organism. It's much like how software engineers can talk about JavaScript for 8 hours and never say the word "computer science."
We say the name or class of it, e.g. dsDNA, or phage

A casual example that should tell you how deep JGI is in this world:
https://jgi.doe.gov/publication/expanding-standards-in-viromics-in-silico-evaluation-of-dsdna-viral-genome-identification-classification-and-auxiliary-metabolic-gene-curation/
2/2
@maxkennerly

Expanding standards in viromics: In silico evaluation of dsDNA viral genome identification, classification, and auxiliary metabolic gene curation - DOE Joint Genome Institute

Viruses influence global patterns of microbial diversity and nutrient cycles. Though viral metagenomics (viromics), specifically targeting dsDNA viruses, has been critical for revealing viral roles across diverse ecosystems, its analyses differ in many ways from those used for microbes. To date, viromics benchmarking has covered read pre-processing, assembly, relative abundance, read mapping thresholds and diversity...

DOE Joint Genome Institute

@dnavinci @skydog @maxkennerly

Much of the anti-vaxxer disinformation & covid malign influence campaigns were funded by the oil industry.

It's an industry that's openly hostile to democracy. They believe that prolonging the pandemic will destabilize democracies & increase profit.

They've funded trucker blockades in Canada that cost their economy billions. They're funding the yellow vest movement in France. They're funding the Tufton Street think tanks kneecapping the UK.

They own the GOP.

@Npars01
Didn't people use a lot less oil during the pandemic peak?
Maybe some long game I don't understand?
Usually those folks can't see past their quarterly bonus...
@skydog @maxkennerly

@dnavinci @skydog @maxkennerly

People may have used less oil during the pandemic but profits increased.

Price gouging is politically useful.

Republicans & Tories spent the pandemic blaming liberals for high gas prices then promptly dropped this talking point after the elections.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/294614/revenue-of-the-gas-and-oil-industry-in-the-us/

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220927/dq220927d-eng.htm

Gas and oil industry revenue U.S. 2022 | Statista

In 2022, the total revenue of the United States’ oil and gas industry came to 332.9 billion U.S.

Statista
@Npars01
Always get a bit nervous when people point at US oil profits as evidence of conspiracy. It's not that the oil companies don't engage is deep nefarious plots (they definitely do), but the profits are almost always acquired by fixed percentage markup.
@skydog @maxkennerly
@Npars01
During the pandemic there was a labor shortage, which led to supply shortage, which led to rising prices at the pump, which (following the unmoved percent markup) led to higher profits without them moving a finger.
Economists more strictly refer to this as "windfall profits" and some politicians advocate taxing those steeply, since they were (ostensibly) accidental.
@skydog @maxkennerly

@dnavinci @skydog @maxkennerly

There's some evidence of oil price manipulation over Putin's war on Ukraine.

https://mobile.twitter.com/70sbachchan/status/1498158636849405955

Mysterious surcharges suddenly appeared on the LNG market.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/02/22/top-5-takeaways-from-todays-hearing-on-big-oils-price-gouging/

High fuel prices triggered blackouts in Asia & kneecapped their economies

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/25/why-russias-war-is-causing-blackouts-in-asia-00084435

Oil price volatility deliberately maximized profits & political pain for democracies accelerating their transition to renewables.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/12/06/top-10-reasons-for-a-price-gouging-penalty-on-big-oil/

https://www.ewg.org/news-insights/news-release/2023/01/more-rampant-gas-price-gouging-exxon-reaps-obscene-56-billion

Albert Pinto on Twitter

“1/ A hot war, a financial war, & nuclear M.A.D... A question to zoom out: Did high energy prices embolden Putin? Are the commodities markets responsible for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? @rupert_russell’s timely new book 'Price Wars' says: YES. https://t.co/jefimrliXc”

Twitter
@Npars01
Yeah, I don't think anyone missed Russian LNG prices and supply as being central to this particular conflict.
I don't think that's something that anyone should need to be convinced about. Like... What did anyone think was going to happen after Nordstream was bombed?
@skydog @maxkennerly

@dnavinci @skydog @maxkennerly

High oil prices are both a boon and a bane.

High prices incentivize more oil drilling and governments are pressured to give in to industry demands for yet more subsidies.

The oil industry uses windfall profits to interfere in elections & mess with government functions like pollution regulations, voting rights, civil rights rollbacks, gun safety, & attacks on Social Security & Medicare.

High gas prices at the pump incentivize the transition to renewables.

@Npars01
Alright. I think this is a bit off the rails.
But yeah, I'd like to see prices stay high. That's how we get the activation energy for a transition.
@skydog @maxkennerly
@maxkennerly no shit. The hell does DoE know about viruses
@maxkennerly oh, I think I’ll wait to hear the VA and the Postal Service weigh in like one does in these cases.
@davidnelsonnm @maxkennerly I mean, the ATF and the FAA really ought to have a say, right?
@maxkennerly
There's no way of convincingly confirming or disproving their hypothesis at this late date. They know this, and are free to make any pronouncements they like without fear of being proven wrong.
@maxkennerly my favourite bit was where they explain that low isn't high
@maxkennerly China is too much of a control freak to do this on purpose. If a lab was involved, then it was probably a mishandling of collected samples.
@maxkennerly That story never should have even made the news.
I have "low confidence" that the virus was "likely" circulating around the world in early fall and actually mutated into the more pathogenic strain identified in Wuhan.
Blood tests in patients in parts of Europe back in October 2019 showed they had unidentified coronavirus antibodies in their blood and back in the fall of 2019 so many people got sick with really bad "flu". My cousin was on a vent for almost 2 weeks.
@maxkennerly - however, that said, I come from a career in Electron Microscopy and have spent untold hours/years looking at microstructures. I've never seen anything LIKE the COVID virus. Wherever it came from, as far as I can see, it's obviously manufactured. #Complexity #Specificity #Mobility #PandemicTaskForceDisbanded #MurderByTrump
@maxkennerly Thank you WSJ for publishing clickbait. One out of SIX investigating agencies has "low confidence", another has "moderate confidence", the other four have no confidence. In what business investment would WSJ tout "low confidence" in as a positive?