| https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly | |
| Post.News | https://post.news/maxkennerly |
| Bluesky | https://staging.bsky.app/profile/maxkennerly.bsky.social |
Atlas has 2.7/3 stars on FiveThirtyEight and is a "select pollster" on NYTimes.
And they pretend Trump will win by claiming the Black vote in Pennsylvania will be 5.2% of the electorate, rather than the 11% it was in 2020 (per CNN exit polling).
I'm not an immigration law expert, but, in general, obtaining naturalization through fraud or misrepresentation can result in deportation of naturalized citizens. It's hard to see how Musk became naturalized without lying about this somewhere in the process.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/26/elon-musk-immigration-status/
LMAO if Beaver County, PA, is a "bellwether" then Harris has already won Pennsylvania and the whole election by a landslide.
Trump won it +18 in 2020, 54,759 votes Trump, 38,122 Biden. Biden won PA with a margin of +80,555 votes.
A month ago, NYT/Siena had Trump +2 nationally. I complained sample sizes were too small for several groups, and that younger voters are more than 12% of electorate in Presidential elections.
Today their sample sizes are fine and they bumped young voters to 13%, so Harris is +3.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/08/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html
nice to see NYTimes drop the sanewashing and instead compile examples of just how bizarre his speech is now, and how little he campaigns (less than a quarter as many rallies as 2016)
gift link so you can send this to the fascist weirdos in your life
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/06/us/politics/trump-speeches-age-cognitive-decline.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QE4.JJYW.GTjJjaexBe2T&smid=url-share
With the passage of time, the 78-year-old former president’s speeches have grown darker, harsher, longer, angrier, less focused, more profane and increasingly fixated on the past, according to a review of his public appearances over the years.
Malcolm Gladwell thinks bank heists are contagious which would be funny but it seems uhhh he's also suggesting minorities shouldn't exceed a third of the population
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/26/business/malcolm-gladwell-revenge-of-the-tipping-point.html
To take NYT/Siena at face value, you have to believe they had difficulty finding people over 65 willing to answer the phone and do a political poll, so had to skew those up 23% to 29%, yet found too many 18-29 people, so had to skew those down 16% to 12%.
Sorry, but no.
