GreekCherokeeFeb 20, 2023
Aaron Ross Powell ☸️
The whole national divorce thing is pretty stupid, and while most of the people arguing for it are right-wingers mad that most of us think it’s wrong to hate trans people, the fact that our electoral map is broken up by states, which are then colored either solid red or solid blue, tricks even some reasonable people into thinking it makes sense. When in reality, this is what the country looks like, making clear there are basically no red or blue states.
Feb 20, 2023 at 5:35pmMona for Mac
Show threadJacob T. LevyFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Certainly right with that "basically" proviso, but, many, you can pick out West Virginia from space.
Show threadAaron Ross Powell ☸️Feb 20, 2023
@jacobtlevy Yeah, maybe the solution is to just kick West Virginia and Massachusetts out of the union and call it a day.
Show threadJacob T. LevyFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Even Massachusetts still has that purple Connecticut River valley belt continuing down from Maine and NH. Rhode Island pretty darn monochrome, but it's not as obvious as WV because it's too small and there are purple splotches outside of it in both directions.
Show threadRobFeb 21, 2023

@arossp @jacobtlevy

As long as you let us apply for EU membership you may have a deal.

Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодFeb 20, 2023

@arossp I can absolutely guarantee that "Pro-Divorce" politicians will start mysteriously disappearing (figurately and literally) the moment "divorce" becomes a serious topic.

There's too much interstate commerce and money tied up between red and blue states for them to just go their separate ways.

Show threadMisuse CaseFeb 20, 2023
@hu_logic @arossp You say that but you’re not accounting for how many people 1) don’t give any of that stuff any serious thought and 2) will get high on their own supply after they’ve pushed it for long enough.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодFeb 20, 2023

@MisuseCase @arossp In a sense, true. But there's also ALOT of generational wealth tied up to land in places like Texas, where even the most pro-MAGA fanatics would rather maintain status quo in the "Woke States of America" than take a chance and lose it all in the "Independent Republic of Texas".

That's why talks of Texas secession always flair up around elections and die down shortly thereafter.

Show threadaresFeb 20, 2023

@hu_logic @MisuseCase @arossp

the second civil war will not be north vs. south or coasts vs. interior, it will be fought neighborhood vs. neighborhood

Show threadMisuse CaseFeb 20, 2023
@ares @hu_logic @arossp Absolutely. And even if these politicians pushing a “national divorce” are all faking it and think they can back off before things really go off, there’s no guarantee that they know where that line is! They’re riding the tiger and the tiger may very well do its thing without them.
Show threadIwillyeahFeb 20, 2023
@hu_logic I feel like many have failed to learn what I think is the single biggest lesson from Brexit: people will vote against their own self-interest in almost any situation if you can give them something to be mad about and promise to solve it for them. They are either too lazy or too incurious to think beyond banner issues. Commerce agreements are boring, immigration fear is exciting.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодFeb 20, 2023

@Iwillyeah I get your point but in all of the recent cases of #LeopardsAteMyFace it was beneficial to the top 1%. Or at the very least shielded them from the fallout.

That's not the case when it comes to the "national divorce" because any capital tied up to the red states would be absolutely decimated. Imagine a bank run, but on not-so-liquid assets...

For many in red states the choice is going to be either "lose $50B overnight" or "have a couple people disappeared"

Show threadIwillyeahFeb 21, 2023
@hu_logic again, you are ignoring the pertinent lessons of recent history. Rich people don't get poor because of crises. More wealth has been have been created in the past 5 years than in any other time in history. The billionaires will profit, even if it's just by betting against markets a lá Jacob Reece Mogg. Ordinary people, even businesses with ties to Europe were seduced by promises of more freedoms and less government interference. They genuinely believed they would thrive. Sound familiar?
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодFeb 21, 2023

@Iwillyeah The only recent precedent to what's being proposed here is the collapse of the Soviet Union, not Brexit.

Comparing it to Brexit is like comparing a papercut to a fatal stab wound. Technically, they are similar, but end results are widely different.

And people smarter/richer than me understand this. And there will be a string of spontaneous car combustions should the topic of "national divorce" take on a serious note.

Show threadIwillyeahFeb 21, 2023
@hu_logic I get what you're saying about severity. What I'm saying is that you cannot trust people to weigh consequences accurately. Nor can you trust the higher ups to be honest about consequences. If you don't think the GOP would find ways to profit from a Redxit, you aren't being imaginative enough. How much profit you could make from pretending the environment is something God just takes care of? No laws. No more unions. And people will let that happen if you promise immigration control.
Show threadhramrachFeb 20, 2023
@hu_logic @arossp That was thought about Brexit as well.
Show threadLemLemsFeb 21, 2023
@hu_logic @arossp It’s not exactly the same but it might be helpful to look at what happened with Brexit. It has damaged the UK economy hugely but the rich string-pullers who drove the push for it aren’t the ones suffering - they put themselves in a position to be insulated and even make money on it, effectively shorting the UK economy. Just because something would be economically damaging, doesn’t mean that there aren’t some people who’ll push for it knowing that they can make money out of it.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодFeb 21, 2023

@Lemlems @arossp There's always going to be a way to make money in a catastrophe.

But that's not my point. My point is that a lot of very rich people will stand to lose a lot of money tied to the red states.

If you have $1B tied in red states' economies - there's nothing you can do to shield that investment from going to 0. You can't sell it (nobody will buy) and you can't hedge it.

Don't think Brexit (exit from economic union) and recession, think collapse of USSR and hyperinflation.

Show threadPieFeb 20, 2023
@arossp just people that live near other humans and republicans
Show threadPhil LandmeierFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Basically, except for West Virginia. You can pretty much see the outline of the state in pure red. We are the heart of reddism in the U.S.A. :-(
Show threadVance MaverickFeb 20, 2023
@arossp can you say something about what we're looking at? Is it one red dot per X thousand Trump 2020 votes, distributed by population?
Show threadSebastian HahnFeb 20, 2023
@arossp I think that‘s why Joe Biden still maintains that he is indeed a president for ALL Americans, not just democratic voters…
Show threadSteve FeltenFeb 20, 2023
@sebastianhahn @arossp Including residents of New Palestine? The culture war is just a distraction so corporations can rob us blind:
Show threadSebastian HahnFeb 20, 2023
@stevefelten @arossp I‘m not sure I understand your point. In what way is Joe Biden responsible for this catastrophe?
Show threadSteve FeltenFeb 20, 2023
@sebastianhahn @arossp Start with the railroad strike in December 2022 Biden intervened to stop.
Show threadWestCoastClicheFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Good point. The so-called national divorce might end up like the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, with forced migration and widespread bloodshed. The resultant red country would be poor, fascist, and armed with nuclear weapons. A wonderful neighbor!
Show threadDarwin WoodkaFeb 20, 2023
@arossp there are states that let all citizens vote, and voter suppression states. There are states that gerrymander their districts so some groups are under represented. There are states that help everyone vote and states that discourage some groups from voting. Etc...
Show threadDoctor MemoryFeb 20, 2023
@arossp @mtsw they know this very well. Getting to put the boot in to their local urban/college-town population unhindered by concerned from the national government is 100% a feature of this plan from their POV.
Show threadPeat BogFeb 20, 2023

@arossp
I wonder which industries are most strongly associated with red areas.

Couldn't find a map of counties by industry but I found a crude map of industry by state. Looks like drilling&mining and cars correlate with red areas.

Peeps in areas dominated by mining/auto industries might be more aggressively targeted by propaganda from our planet's fossil feudalists.

Wannabe Saudi-style royals (eg Putin, Kochs) seem happy to start civil wars to cause chaos and destroy democracy.

Show threadarensbFeb 20, 2023
@arossp I recently ran across an op-ed that argues what matters in presidential elections is how real estate votes:
https://www.limaohio.com/columns/2023/02/16/don-stratton-the-electoral-college-the-other-side-of-the-story/
He explicitly warns against presidents being elected by "25% of the geographical area of the country".
Show threadCarrieFeb 20, 2023
@arossp I wish I had a dollar for every time a self proclaimed leftist or liberal suggested we just throw “red states” to the wolves by splitting up the union. It’s always fun to learn how many people who proclaim to be compassionate and anti-racist are actually willing to throw away Black people and poor people and disabled people because they live in states ruled by cruel people.
Show threadSuzanne PaleyFeb 20, 2023

@WeShall @arossp There's so much wishful thinking on both sides that if we can just wall ourselves off from those others, then suddenly it's not our problem anymore. Like if you're "pro-life" and believe that we have a God-given duty to save all those unborn children, do all those unborn children suddenly become expendable once they're separated by a political border? If you believe that black people and queer people are entitled to the same rights and access to justice as everyone else, why should that stop being the case if they suddenly become part of a different country?

I mean, we see this already with how we view problems in our own country vs problems in other countries, but in this case, the people aren't changing, just the political border!

It's similar to how I get annoyed when my husband talks about moving to some other country if things get bad enough here -- I mean, we're privileged, we'll do fine either way, but how will us leaving help the situation in any way?

Show threadCarrieFeb 21, 2023
@smpaley @arossp Exactly. It’s a very simplistic thing to say “let the red states fend for themselves” as if that wouldn’t be condemning millions of people to death. Never mind the sense of privilege people who say things like that must possess… as if they are solely responsible for living in a supposed “blue state.” I just can’t take anyone seriously who is advocating such silliness (regardless of their political affiliation).
Show threadAaron Ross Powell ☸️Feb 21, 2023
@WeShall @smpaley While I agree that the red states would suffer significant economic consequences, and the whole thing is a dumb idea to start with, it would not condemn millions of people to death.
Show threadCarrieFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @smpaley How many poor disabled people are on Medicaid in red states?
Show threadCarrieFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @smpaley How many rely on SSI to survive? There are millions of people in red states who rely on federal money to simply survive. Without federal money, poor, disabled, and elderly people in red states would be without food and housing and healthcare.
Show threadCarrieFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @smpaley Nevermind the collapse of healthcare infrastructure that would occur without federal funding.
Show threadGurtbeef RobeFeb 21, 2023
@WeShall @arossp those on the left that support the idea of 2 countries actually say much different than what you’re claiming. The ones I’ve talked to all want some way to get people out of those states if they want to. They talk about sponsorship and govt programs or even amnesty to get those people into the blue country where they’ll be taken care of. So you’re either not listening to them or spreading lies
Show threadPyperkubFeb 20, 2023
@arossp And here is an image of what the pro-divorce folks want
Show threadGrennanFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Impractical proposal: redraw state boundaries every 10 (or 20 or 30) years, like the way congressional districts are drawn. Rebalance the population for representation purposes and keep people together who have similar local or regional concerns.
Show threadShawnFeb 20, 2023

@arossp right, and since Democrats are the actual majority of this country, we will never cede territory to the minority that wants to incite a civil war because they don’t get their way 100% of the time, everywhere.

Do I don’t care if the GOP voters want their own country. They don’t get to assume they get to take any state territory with them. They’ll have to ship themselves to a deserted island.

Show threadDouglas Phillips BooksFeb 20, 2023
@arossp not that it will happen, but we could allow each person and each organization to choose, red or blue. Want social security and free education for your children? Be a blue citizen. Want access to government services? Be a blue company. Land based issues like national parks would still need blue/red territories, but there's no reason blue citizens couldn't live in a red state. We already do this with Canadians.
Show threadJeffFeb 20, 2023
@arossp we can't continue on without a new country
Show threadΩ 🌍 Gus PoseyFeb 20, 2023
@arossp I want to remind you that this idea originates from a woman who thinks sharks and dolphins are basically the same kind of animal, which in her mind is an alligator.
Show threadChuck O'Rourke:verified:Feb 20, 2023
@arossp @lolgop Well actually, this is New England, and we’ve been talking to this old friend on Facebook, called Canada, and we really want to be free to pursue that.
Show threadAviva GaryFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Ah but those people don't care about silly things like facts and charts... oh no... they want money/power/their ideologies and they want it now!
Show threadWndlBFeb 20, 2023
@arossp Is this map by county, or…?
Show threadRealGravitas -Citizen SaboteurFeb 20, 2023
@arossp point taken. It would be interesting to see this kind of data pre-civil war. My guess is that state govts will do what they think they can get away with in their pursuit of power. That’s regardless of how “complex” their constituent map looks.
Show thread🤨 Subterranean Homesick AlienFeb 21, 2023
@arossp Well, at the county level, you do have red and blue counties split on an urban / rural line. So yeah, rural America allied with Oligarchs and religious zealots have decided to try anf foil the will of their more numerous urban cosmopolitan less bigoted neighbours, and in the long term, they will fail. But it will be painful to get from here to there.
Show threadKeep Migrants, Deport MAGAFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @KFuentesGeorge Well said. Alternatively, there are no red states and blue states, only purple states with gerrymandering and voter suppression
Show threadDamon MumaFeb 21, 2023
@arossp there’s a purple people eater joke in here somewhere
Show threadGurtbeef RobeFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @lolgop even during the civil war time, not everyone in the south was conservative supporting secession and not everyone in the north was liberal supporting union. When the majority of your state consistently votes one way, your state is that way. Yes things are more integrated today but the overall point still holds true.
Show threadGurtbeef RobeFeb 21, 2023
@arossp don’t automatically dismiss the idea as right wing garbage until you hear what the left is saying. I don’t speak for anyone but my beliefs are left.
I don’t want a civil war and don’t think it’s necessary. I do support the idea of 2 new countries though. Nearly all political issues stem back to civil war. The conservative south has done nothing but fight & prevent progress & spread toxic beliefs. Just like a bad marriage, both sides would be happier to split. We are too different
Show threadGurtbeef RobeFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @lolgop it doesn’t really matter though. Our country is not going to break up. What should be alarming is that we’ve got 25% of the population that is extremely mad and the 75% are catering to them & empowering them instead of crushing their toxicity into oblivion.
Show threadAmanda BFeb 21, 2023
@arossp @TheTraveler imagine how much more blue this would be if people actually voted. Between laziness and suppression, we are all getting screwed.
Show threadrholland_again-againFeb 21, 2023
@arossp Thank goodness. It will make the court-ordered counseling more feasible.
Show threadCameron BalesFeb 21, 2023
@arossp OMG. I’m pretty sure my guess is correct, but help a colour blind guy out. What does that map say?
Show threadXGeoffFeb 21, 2023
@arossp yep, I’ve been telling people for years that it is an urban vs rural thing and that there is no such thing as red states and blue states