Jonah S. Rubin (he/him)Jan 3, 2023
Erin Reed

I have tracked anti-trans legislation for 3 years. Every day, people have asked me where to move or how at risk they are in their state.

So I created the anti-trans legislative risk map.

This is my final map of 2022.

Please subscribe, support my work.

https://erininthemorn.substack.com/p/the-final-anti-trans-legislative

The Final Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Map Of 2022

This map helps you determine the likelihood your state will pass anti-trans legislation in the next 2 years. If you are moving or looking to move, or make other decisions, please use this map!

Erin In The Morning
Dec 30, 2022 at 3:08pmWeb
Show threadErin ReedDec 30, 2022
This map saw a few changes. Mississippi has increased in risk after the Governor has come out and made anti-trans legislation a priority. Previously, Mississippi's anti-trans legislation could not escape committee. This means that Mississippi is now high risk.
Show threadErin ReedDec 30, 2022
New Hampshire is another state that moved up. Recently, a NH republican proposed one of the worst anti-trans laws I have ever seen - a ban to 21. I still think that it is unlikely to pass, but given New Hampshire's partisan breakdown, they could be at risk of lesser laws.
Show threadErin ReedDec 30, 2022

I have several media outlets, businesses, and parents of trans youth that rely on my map to help them make decisions. There may be some disagreement on state assessments, but I make them according to my best knowledge and tracking.

Please help me keep doing this and subscribe.

Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn NH is like Florida 10 years ago, sliding to the hard right. New England Liberal Sensibilities tend to cave into Social Conservativism/ independent voters before collapsing into AltRight Fascism.

Afterall, the NH Snowbirds all fly to Florida for the winter, then fly north with a case of covid and bigotry.

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin @ErinInTheMorn Two thoughts on this: 1) NH's recent midterm elections resulted in a shocking near split in the state legislature's lower chamber, so things are looking up in a sense. I think NH and PA have two of the closest margins of state legislatures at the moment. Liberals are fighting very hard in a super gerrymandered map! 2) The Free State movement, in which libertarians have moved here by the 1000s has poisoned our state to a point. 1/2
Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin @ErinInTheMorn There are freak RWers that I like to think wouldn't win w/o the libertarian anti-gov vote boosting R candidates generally, undoing independents' swing toward rationality. I'm not even going to address the undeserved popularity of our Govr. He could be a lot worse but there's no objective reason he should be winning by nearly 60-40 margins every two years, ⬆️ing all Rs. That makes me question the intelligence of all those independents who vote for him. Haha Sigh. 2/2
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@FluffyCowBird I noticed that 60/40 split in RW controlled state always in the R's favor. I feel a big part of this is gerrymandering and other disenfranchisement

As for Independents, many I've met, are basically always vote R that don't want to admit they vote that way yet enjoy playing both sides of the fence and willfully chose to be low information consumers (ie repeat talking points).

This 'waffling' makes them easy picking for slick talking worm tongued far right media.

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin That's a good point about "independents in name only", but I don't think it fully explains the 60/40-ish split in Gov. Sununu's favor. That's a statewide race, so gerrymandering isn't a factor. But unlike other state-wide races, such as US Sen. seats, this one tilts R in such an extreme way. I think it's probably to do w/ Sununu's father who worked for (grifted off of) GHWBush's administration, and was also super-popular in NH for some reason. I don't get it. 
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

I remember when I loudly stranger dangered John Sununu as a kid at a clam bake in front of my parents and everyone and all he wanted was a handshake with a kid photo op.😅 1987/88 I think

The Sununu's have a brand in New Hampshire and name recognition. They sold something of an old familiar like an affable uncle that sells furniture and wears old funny smelling suits to voters. And NH Voters are a lot like FL voters in older communities like the Villages

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin Somehow I totally missed this story earlier. That's amazing! Yeah, he does seem like he means well, I have to give him that. haha He "comes off" GREAT if a bit vanilla and non-committal. He toed a "pro-choice Republican" line really craftily, right up until he signed a restrictive new abortion law put up by our last state legislature. Oh, well! Cover blown. haha 
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022
@FluffyCowBird The Fox is in the Hen house and the Rooster is dead behind the rock.
Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022

@MoonshotErin OMG So true! The rooster has been dead for a while, though, I think. Someone's been playing Weekend at Bernie's on us...

I suspect the news media is too overworked to detect a dead rooster when they see one, perhaps? If only fewer things could be on fire at once, that would be ideal.

Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@FluffyCowBird That's the point, isn't it?

Everything everywhere happening all at once, provides good distraction and cover because we're too busy responding to the first dozen fires, we're not able to respond to the other five dozen fires.

We're exhausted from trying to save the chickens, we didn't even notice the fox also burned down the barn, set the farmer's home ablaze and ran off with farm dog.

Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@FluffyCowBird What I mean by the 60/40 split is that I hear it so often, it feels like a fake number/stat to me now. Like hearing the election results of a sham election in a russian breakaway state or some 3rd world dictator with a starving population.

I don't know why it sounds wrong, or how to explain it, but my instinct tells me something misleading or corrupt is present.

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin I think you make a very good point also about waffling folks being easily manipulated. I know people like that, too, who just believe the first thing they hear and don't seem to have a "spidey sense" that tells them when something is likely Russian propaganda in disguise, which so much of Faux News has been for years now. It's so blatant. It's also not that hard to tell which politicians are themselves manipulated/bribed by outside influences, Russian or not. 
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@FluffyCowBird I remember a report about computer security where it said something like 70% of people that received training to be aware of social engineering attacks still fell for the social engineering attacks (been a while so correct me if I'm wrong)

So no one is immune, imo, but some do kinda set themselves up to it and now we have to be even more vigilant due to technology outpacing our brains. At least with trump, he didn't bother to hide the con under more than an inch of golf turfgrass

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin I heard something like that recently, too! A cybersecurity expert was on the radio (or maybe a podcast? Who knows where I hear things. Not me!) describing how folks who were trained to be aware, just weren't. Kind of spooky, but having been in education (and enough staff meetings), I've seen it happen. If I had a nickel for every time a kid raised their hand to say "So, what are we doing?" I could be retired already. We literally JUST went over that...  (edited emoji)
Show threadMark KruegerDec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn @MoonshotErin Not just NH.

“Snowbirds all fly to Florida for the winter, then fly north with a case of covid and bigotry.”

This is a social phenomena that deserves further discussion/study.

Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@markkrueg @ErinInTheMorn

Florida's two largest exports is stupidity via air travel and new covid cases. lol

But you're right, its not just NH, Florida has created a very sly image of itself with the rest of the country to sucker folks to come down here, where everything is expensive, includes hidden fees and you're at the whims of deregulated businesses

Show threadColorfulKnollDec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn

My home state of South Carolina also introduced a bill up to 21. S.274

https://www.scstatehouse.gov/sess125_2023-2024/bills/274.htm

2023-2024 Bill 274: Gender Reassignment Surgery - South Carolina Legislature Online

Show threadRoz DerorsJan 1, 2023
@ErinInTheMorn Anybody not White, Straight, and Male or at risk!
Show threadKevin Karhan Dec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn Consider to help @trans_rescue to expand it globally?
Show threadThommyDec 30, 2022
@kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn @trans_rescue is there anyone already making similar maps for other large countries or regions?
Show threadTrans RescueDec 30, 2022
@thomasjwebb @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn
TransEmigrate's director maintained one, but it had lots of methodological flaws and consumed time and energy needed for moving trans folks.
We have the data if someone is interested in pursuing it.
ILGA maintains a better constructed list, but it's focused on gay rights.
Show threadTrans RescueDec 30, 2022
@thomasjwebb @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn
Making such a map is a big project. Making one that is consistent and grounded in reality is extremely difficult, and in many ways inherently subjective.
Show threadThommyDec 30, 2022
@trans_rescue @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn yeah to me it's a lot like election predictions. Erin is also using her intuition, developed from living in this country, to get a feel for what is more or less likely. It wouldn't be proper to compare her assessment of the risks in a US state to someone else's assessment of a EU member country. And totally different structures of government.
Show threadTrans RescueDec 31, 2022
@thomasjwebb @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn
we've had passengers in terrible danger who refused suggestions to move to places we know are relatively benign - its always partly subjective
Show threadTrans RescueDec 31, 2022
@thomasjwebb @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn
One needs to show two values - current acceptance level and rate of change.
We call countries that once were on a path to #trans rights, but are now falling into fascism "countries of new concern" - they particularly worry us, as there are millions of out trans folks who have few defenses if things turn ugly suddenly.
Show threadKevin Karhan Dec 31, 2022

@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn *nodds in agreement*

There needs to be more public awareness and pressure.

Criminalizing trans people out of existance must be politically as suicidal as the last time a facist regime did to as a doctrine to another marginalized minority...

#NeverAgain means NEVER, AGAIN in the entire solar system!

Show threadTrans RescueDec 30, 2022
@thomasjwebb @kkarhan @ErinInTheMorn
It's a great project for somebody, I'm not sure it should be us, though we know a lot about what's happening in places.
Show threadKevin Karhan Dec 31, 2022
@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn I still think that a "LGBTQIA / trans safety index" based off "simple yes/no questions" would allow to somehow metrify safety and issues more nuanced than "safe/unsafe" binary and few gradients ranging from "save haven" to "trans people get KOS'd by state and non-state actors alike"...
Show threadTrans RescueDec 31, 2022
@kkarhan @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn
In some places afab folks are more in danger than amab folks, i n others the reverse, trans people are often conflated with gay people, etc
It may be hard to distinguish dangers - we just got a trans man out of Russia - it's a dangerous place to be a trans guy, but he mostly was scared of being trans and in the Russian army.
And everybody is in danger in Yemen.
Show threadTrans RescueJan 1, 2023
@kkarhan @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn
And many 'yes/no' questions aren't. Or the person you're asking doesn't know. Or they can't answer because they're dead.
Show threadKevin Karhan Jan 1, 2023
@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn Which IMHO would require to oftentimes say "insufficient data" at the very least...
Show threadKevin Karhan Jan 1, 2023

@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn

*nodds in agreement*
Notwidthstanding the current turmoils and general supression in #Iran, it was by far the least hostile for heterobinary AMAB #trans people in the region, whilst basically being a lethal area for cis gays and lesbians:

Thus it would likely require dozens of yes/no questions and should not only release a almost-meaningless "rating" similar to HDI but also the detailed results and source of data used to provide #transparency...

Show threadTrans RescueJan 1, 2023
@kkarhan @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn
I'd never trust such data couldn't be deanonymized. And our passengers, often within a couple km of each other, report wildly different estimates of danger.
Show threadKevin Karhan Jan 1, 2023

@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn Not to mention that aggregating data in any quantity that would be considered a "scientifically acceptable" pool size is basically impossible when most people are afraid of their lives.

Furthermore any form of Danger is subjective:

"I'm used to walking through fire and diving with sharks at less than an arms' lenght with nothing but water in between, remaining calm even when an AKM is pointed at my head, but I'll not gamble my life in terms of 'Rona...

Show threadKevin Karhan Jan 1, 2023
@trans_rescue @thomasjwebb @ErinInTheMorn Furthermore the horrible conditions from some places [i.e. KSA & Yemen] may be traumatizing for a a lot of people in "the West" to even listen to recounts of, but people who've lived under this and barely come to terms with said circumstances being bad don't know how bad it is...
Show threadCayla HardwickeDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn Also for anyone in Texas trying to leave, I live at a housing coop in Austin if you need to have a place to stay on your way out, you can stay here, I figure this would be the most visible place to post this
Show threadLiza BringsDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn
I notice you have my state (VA) at risk. That’s undoubtedly due to our President wanna-be governor Youngkin.
Keep an eye out. As long as Democrats can hold the Senate, we’ll kill any anti-trans proposals. But ngl, it’s gonna be a tough 4 years.
Show threadMojoDec 30, 2022
@LizaBrings @ErinInTheMorn.
I'm a native Virginian who moved to Pennsylvania (marriage/inherited house). I never would have thought Pennsylvania to ever be more progressive than Virginia. So sad. Just let people be. I continue to hope that as older people die off, this world becomes more accepting.
Show threadAsuraDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn what’s so ridiculous is how determined the red states are to just be harmful. They claim to care about the science (even though they probably have collective scientific education of a 4th grader) and when the science says gender affirming care will help they puke all over the walls and run to their Bible as if it’s a safety blanket. I have trans friends and will always support them. More importantly I’m always open to listen to them and help where I can
Show threadBuffaloResearchDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn
I ❤ NY.
Show threadAdam CookDec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn Excellent work.

Hopefully, one day, #Michigan (my brand new home state since October) can move to the “safest state with protections” category.

We have a once-in-decades chance to push hard over the next two (2) years.

Show threadAlyssa VoroninDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn A lot of people ask why I moved from east Tennessee to the suburbs of Chicago, and if I weren't in the closet, I'd just print this map and hand it to them.
Show threadgavinisdie Dec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn even though I'm not Trans, I'm proud to way my state is in the blue
Show threadEarl GrayDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn That looks an awful like the GOP map…. Go figure…
Show threadFranchuFranchuDec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn

That's really cool. I would never thought about the possibility of mass of tracking in-progress legislation to make decisions. I think there's a lot of possibilities these type of analysis could bring in other areas. Do you know if it has ever been done before?

Show threadPaula WashingtonDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn Oklahoma’s just a smidgeon better than Iran! Ughhhhhh!
Show threadScoutDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn Thank you for your diligence, Erin. I’ve been following you for a while and I subscribe to your newsletter, so I know that *every single day* you are on top of these issues. I don’t know how you do it. Allow yourself some self-care. 💞#TransRightsAreHumanRights
Show threadKarl Morant 🇨🇦  🖖Dec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn

I see three Americas.

Show threadGAJackDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn interesting correlation. More educated the state the lower risk.
Show threadCommander SupremeDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn New Hampshire being the only pink state in all of New England confirms my suspicion that this state sucks ass. I want to move so bad but I'm trapped. How do I change this? What do I do? I hate this place so much.
Show threadNelson SVG JamesDec 30, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn
Show threadJanice SelbieDec 31, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn I hate that this is needed. Thanks for making it.
Show threadÁngel Daniel Rosario✊Dec 31, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn An important contribution. Thanks a lot for the effort👍
Show threadSocialistStanDec 31, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn CO looking good!
Show threadAlicePaulDec 31, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn

The map looks oddly familiar. 😁

Show threadAutisticMumTo3Dec 31, 2022
@ErinInTheMorn
Looks like those from Texas are potentially in a lot of trouble. Terrifying.
@MikeDunnAuthor
Show threadmichelle.catDec 31, 2022
@AutisticMumTo3 @ErinInTheMorn @MikeDunnAuthor Texas is only going to get worse , I still do not understand how voters could give Abbott another term after those school shootings