Erin ReedDec 30, 2022

I have tracked anti-trans legislation for 3 years. Every day, people have asked me where to move or how at risk they are in their state.

So I created the anti-trans legislative risk map.

This is my final map of 2022.

Please subscribe, support my work.

https://erininthemorn.substack.com/p/the-final-anti-trans-legislative

The Final Anti-Trans Legislative Risk Map Of 2022

This map helps you determine the likelihood your state will pass anti-trans legislation in the next 2 years. If you are moving or looking to move, or make other decisions, please use this map!

Erin In The Morning
Show threadErin ReedDec 30, 2022
This map saw a few changes. Mississippi has increased in risk after the Governor has come out and made anti-trans legislation a priority. Previously, Mississippi's anti-trans legislation could not escape committee. This means that Mississippi is now high risk.
Show threadErin ReedDec 30, 2022
New Hampshire is another state that moved up. Recently, a NH republican proposed one of the worst anti-trans laws I have ever seen - a ban to 21. I still think that it is unlikely to pass, but given New Hampshire's partisan breakdown, they could be at risk of lesser laws.
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@ErinInTheMorn NH is like Florida 10 years ago, sliding to the hard right. New England Liberal Sensibilities tend to cave into Social Conservativism/ independent voters before collapsing into AltRight Fascism.

Afterall, the NH Snowbirds all fly to Florida for the winter, then fly north with a case of covid and bigotry.

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin @ErinInTheMorn Two thoughts on this: 1) NH's recent midterm elections resulted in a shocking near split in the state legislature's lower chamber, so things are looking up in a sense. I think NH and PA have two of the closest margins of state legislatures at the moment. Liberals are fighting very hard in a super gerrymandered map! 2) The Free State movement, in which libertarians have moved here by the 1000s has poisoned our state to a point. 1/2
Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin @ErinInTheMorn There are freak RWers that I like to think wouldn't win w/o the libertarian anti-gov vote boosting R candidates generally, undoing independents' swing toward rationality. I'm not even going to address the undeserved popularity of our Govr. He could be a lot worse but there's no objective reason he should be winning by nearly 60-40 margins every two years, ⬆️ing all Rs. That makes me question the intelligence of all those independents who vote for him. Haha Sigh. 2/2
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔Dec 30, 2022

@FluffyCowBird I noticed that 60/40 split in RW controlled state always in the R's favor. I feel a big part of this is gerrymandering and other disenfranchisement

As for Independents, many I've met, are basically always vote R that don't want to admit they vote that way yet enjoy playing both sides of the fence and willfully chose to be low information consumers (ie repeat talking points).

This 'waffling' makes them easy picking for slick talking worm tongued far right media.

Show threadFluffyCowBird ✅Dec 30, 2022
@MoonshotErin That's a good point about "independents in name only", but I don't think it fully explains the 60/40-ish split in Gov. Sununu's favor. That's a statewide race, so gerrymandering isn't a factor. But unlike other state-wide races, such as US Sen. seats, this one tilts R in such an extreme way. I think it's probably to do w/ Sununu's father who worked for (grifted off of) GHWBush's administration, and was also super-popular in NH for some reason. I don't get it. 
Show threadErin🏳️‍⚧️👩‍🚀🚀🌔

@FluffyCowBird What I mean by the 60/40 split is that I hear it so often, it feels like a fake number/stat to me now. Like hearing the election results of a sham election in a russian breakaway state or some 3rd world dictator with a starving population.

I don't know why it sounds wrong, or how to explain it, but my instinct tells me something misleading or corrupt is present.

Dec 30, 2022 at 8:02pmWeb