Ross BrightDec 27, 2022

Via ONS, UK GDP is still 0.8% below pre-pandemic level, leaving the UK as the only G7 economy with output still below pre-COVID level. US GDP is 4.3% above its 2019 level, Eurozone 2.2% above.

The realities of #brexit as a global policy, particularly in 2022 given the geopolitical, economic and trading realities, has completely failed. It feels inevitable we will realign with the EU.

But how do we unwind this mess? And how quickly can this be done? Without further damaging the UK.

Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright indeed. Only once the tories are gone can we start to have a grown up conversation, but that has to begin with electoral reform so we can actually vote for what we want rather than against what we don't. I fear a labour landslide will result in complacency, again, from labour.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright it's not that PR is a panacea, it's that FPTP is a disaster. We are here because of FPTP allowed a relatively small number of people to take over the government and force us down a path that never really had majority support.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright I'm not underestimating it at all. That was literally the point I made. The unwritten construction is a red herring (although the failureof institutions and the acceptanceof corruption is a huge problem its not the cause). This disaster did not start with Johnson. He was just the face of the leave campaign. Its roots come from Cameron's fear of Ukip that thanks to FPTP was endangering the Conservatives ability to be elected. ..
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright That lead to his offer of a referendum and then his failure both to clearly set the terms of the referendum and then to win it. It all stems from FPTP. I struggle to fear small far right parties when we have a far right party in government with a huge majority based on a minority of the vote.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright the fact that Labour won't do PR is precisely why we risk a one term Labour government. They will face an unprecedented economic climate and be largely powerless to improve it while outside the SM. That will alienate any pro EU voters and those suffering due to the economic conditions,allowing the tories to take advantage of the split vote.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 27, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright it's the Conservatives surging that will bevthe problem. Its pro EU voters deserting them for minor parties if the continue to tie themselves to the economic disaster of brexit.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 28, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright My concern will be a pro EU party forming and splitting the anti-tory vote, that an loosing votes to the libdems in 3 way marginals letting the tories in. With Labour continuing the disaster of Brexit they can't rely on people who understand economics continuing to support them.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 28, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright I think you underestimate the strength of pro EU feeling. That's only going to get stronger and Labour can't ignore it forever. Their current policy is to negotiate a better deal outside the SM but that is pure cakeism. It is kind of ok in opposition but once in power their failure to achieve this will be clear for all to see. A pro EU party does not have to win any seats, Ukip never did, they just need to threaten to spit the vote.
Show threadChris Gerhard Dec 28, 2022
@jackLondon @rossbright that's Labour's problem. You can't fix the economy outside the single market. That the electorate were sold a lie doesn't change hard truths. Labour will really struggle to fix things with an economy that continues to flatline. At some point someone is going to have to be honest about that. If Labour won't someone else will
Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPEDec 28, 2022

Possibly the best we can hope for is the weakest of Labour wins.

A win in which the latter can only enter government by securing supply and confidence agreements with the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the LibDems - and that those four refuse to sign up until Labour commits to #PR.

@jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPE

The last time #LibDems were in a #coalition (and threw students under the bus) they enabled the #Conservatives to walk into power and, only after that, agreed to a nationwide referendum on #AV.

That wouldn't be the same as #Labour being in a sufficiently weak position for the #LibDems and #SNP to say: either you commit to introducing #PR now, win our collaboration and govern or you don't and fail to - and probably lose the next election too.

Let's see.

@jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Dec 28, 2022 at 2:59pmWeb
Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Dec 28, 2022
@OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright #LIbDems got into government and helped apprenticeships and pensioners - what parties are supposed to do. And yes, Labour+LibDems would be better than Labour due to PR.
Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPEDec 28, 2022

Probably best not to start on this.

#LibDems co-presided over #Austerity, house price rises & a surge in Zero-Hour Contracts + Gig Economy. For a referendum on #AV??

The 2010-15 government is nothing to be proud of participating in.

Your party can redeem itself for the early 2010s by effectively winning hearts & minds with regard to #PR & #RejoinEU in the 2020s.

Please continue fighting for real communities & the real economy.

@LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Dec 28, 2022
@OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright Tories led a austerity. #LibDems helped on housing, pensions, apprenticeships and gay marriage. The practical alternative was another GE and historically that would have given Tories more power. #LIbDems stand tall above the Labour-Tory team that brought us Brexit.
Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPEDec 28, 2022

The practical alternative was the #LibDems not enabling #Austerity (which, by the way, helped set the stage for #Brexit) and not shafting university students. Your party is grievously stained for all the terrible things it enabled.

Now. Please. Sincerely. Stop talking about Westminster parties as if yours and others are more important than real communities and the real economy. Thanks. The cart goes behind the horse, not in front of it.

@LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPEDec 28, 2022

It would be very encouraging to see the #LibDems and #Labour publicly sign up to a non-compete agreement with each other for the next #GE

Please give everyone some confidence that in any constituency where the two parties are not currently first and second, there will be united front against the #Conservatives.

Sincere thanks.

@LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Dec 29, 2022
@OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright Voter like choice. the RW media hates stick-ups. 5%will vote for the party of their Dad and the rest of voters can see the signs of more serious campaigning and will vote to #GTTO. Worked well in 4 by-elections where both Labour and #LibDems did well/better.
Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Dec 29, 2022
@OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright "confidence that in any constituency where the two parties are not currently first and second, there will be united front against the #Conservatives." By elections showed enough practical coordination to #GTTO
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 2, 2023

@OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

My understanding is that the parties have done some research which shows that formally standing down would be counterproductive - the people still voting for the third-place party are mostly the ones who would never vote for the other party anyway, and it motivates right-wing voters to vote Conservative rather than staying home or voting for a far-right party (Reform or UKIP or whoever Farage is leading).

Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 2, 2023

@OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

What they will do instead is that they won't campaign at all so voters will only get leaflets, letters, door-knockers etc from the party that has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives; this will give a clear signal to those who agree with the idea of tactical voting without antagonising conspiratorially minded right-wingers.

Show threadOurFlagUK #RejoinEU #FBPEJan 3, 2023

Can see the sense in this.

Approve of the subtlety of this approach.

@po8crg @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright

Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Jan 4, 2023
@po8crg @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright This worked well albeit imperfectly at by-elections.
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023

@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright It also worked well in the 1997 General Election when it was tacitly endorsed by both Blair and Ashdown as leaders of the parties.

It failed badly in 2019 because Labour and the Lib Dems identified many of the same seats as winnable and also attacked each other at a national level, so denying the tacit endorsement.

There were lots of places where both parties were saying "only we can beat the Tories here".

Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023
@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright There are always going to be a handful of three-way marginals where getting that sort of agreement is essentially impossible (central parties don't have enough control over the local campaigns to tell them to stop campaigning if they are determined to do so), but in most elections the outlines of which seats are winnable and which aren't are relatively clear.
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023
@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright
It's worth saying that _in the specific context of the Brexit environment_, the best joint strategy for Lab/LD/Grn would be for Lab to be pro-Brexit and defend the Red Wall and surrender their safe pro-EU seats and 200+ MPs to the Greens, who run the pro-EU left campaign and the LDs run a right-tinged pro-EU campaign in the suburban Blue Wall (places like Surrey that voted Remain but also voted Tory).
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023
@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright But that would mean both Lab and LD agreeing that the best thing for the country would be for the Greens to be the largest party, and that is an unrealistic thing to ask a party to do.
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023
@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright To be clear: "we're going to deliberately lose Jeremy Corbyn's seat" is not something you could fairly ask the Labour party to do in 2019.
Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Jan 4, 2023
@po8crg @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright Parties don't allocate seats. Voters decide and they don't vote for many Green MPs under FPTP. #LIbDems clearer on being pro-EU.
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023

@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright
No, but they choose political tactics.

If Labour had gone for a soft-ish Lexit, that would have shored up votes in the Red Wall while haemorraging them in their urban heartlands.

We still hadn't got over coalition in 2019, so we couldn't pick up Islington or Manchester Central, but we could take on pro-EU Tory Blue Wall seats like Surrey.

.... so those urban Labour votes end up going Green.

Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023
@LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright
Remember how Labour got forced into accepting a referendum because they were terrified by the Euro-election results? If they'd just said "no, screw every single Remain voter, we're still a party of Leave", they don't hand any Remain seats to BJ's Tories... so it completely fucks the Tories. But they might lose a lot to the Greens and/or LDs.
Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Jan 4, 2023
@po8crg @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright JC supported Brexit so strategic alliances were difficult.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPEJan 4, 2023
@po8crg @LibDemCampaigner @OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright Well, yes, we did attack the various #brexshitter parties at national level.
Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPEJan 4, 2023
@po8crg @OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright This has worked for by-elections with parties saying "we have finite resources and we have to prioritise which seats we campaign in".
Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023

@TimWardCam @OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright
That is even more true in a General Election than in a by-election.

The one fly in this ointment is that local parties can't actually be stopped from campaigning with their own funds; the central party can refuse to subsidise them and can ask their members to campaign elsewhere, but they can't actually stop them.

In a by-election, the local party's own funds campaign is spit in a ocean, in a General, not so much.

Show threadRichard GadsdenJan 4, 2023

@TimWardCam @OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright
There will be some third-place local parties - of all parties - who fight determined spoiler campaigns. Their central parties will wish they didn't but have no actual power to stop them.

One of them, somewhere, will actually win. The rest will let 10 or so Tories in. And nothing could have prevented that.

Show threadTim Ward ⭐🇪🇺🔶 #FBPEJan 4, 2023
@po8crg @OurFlagUK @LibDemCampaigner @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright The Richmond Park by-election was "interesting" in that sort of regard. With Labour party members helping in the Lib Dem campaign HQ.
Show threadLibDemCampaigner🔶Dec 29, 2022
@OurFlagUK @jackLondon @chrisgerhard @rossbright #Labour ran away from a coalition in 2010. #LIbDems helped real commuities by helping on lowering taxes and opposing Brexit. Real commuities choose parties and parties affect the country. Being anti-party all of a sudden is playing the wrong game. One or two of the parties will affect everyone so support the one(s) that help most and can win.