Sascha B. 🇺🇦=🇪🇺Dec 28, 2022
Craig Welch

1. My best #journalism this year:

Not long ago, I wrote a story about #forests. Every scientist said we’re losing them to #climatechange faster than expected. So #NationalGeographic, at my urging, dedicated its entire May issue to the future of forests.

We found that around the world, in places like #Yellowstone, #trees are burning but not regenerating. Forests are transitioning to something new. Some will never be the same. Others may never come back.

My cover story https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/forests-future-threatened-heat-drought-feature

Dec 20, 2022 at 6:23pmWeb
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

2. For our May issue, we got early access to tons of research.

For example, What is making scientists uneasy is the quickening pulse of extreme events—fire, storms, bug kills + mostly heat and drought, which worsen everything. That is inflicting mass mortality events on forests everywhere—not just in the American West.

Here is one of the studies we focused on, led by @wmhammond. It showed there have been #forest mass-mortality events in 675 spots around the world. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests - Nature Communications

Tree mortality is increasing due to droughts and other climate change-related stressors, but isolating climate signals for tree mortality is challenging. Here, the authors assemble a geo-referenced global database that quantifies how drought and hotter climate drive tree mortality events.

Nature
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

3. For example, Camille Stevens-Rumann, a #forest #ecologist, examined 1,485 sites from 52 fires in Colorado, Idaho, Montana + Washington.

Nearly 1/3 that burned since the yr 2000 aren’t coming back.

“And by ‘not recovering,’ I mean not a single tree—not one,” she said.

And here's the thing: Mass #tree deaths can shift forests that have survived since the last ice age to entirely new states.

And yet #IPCC models still can't accurately predict how often or fast that may happen.

Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

4. It's happening everywhere.

In 5 yrs #drought and insects killed more #spruce across #Europe than anytime in modern history.

In #Siberia, #fires burned 21 million acres in 2021—4x more than usual. Some forests are now grasslands.

In 2 years, up to 19% of all California sequoias—some alive since the reign of Julius Caesar—died in fires.

How is this happening? Heat and drought is sucking moisture from plants, pushing them past thresholds they've never experienced. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/graphics/an-illustrated-guide-to-how-heat-and-drought-are-killing-trees

An illustrated guide to how heat and drought are killing trees

Trees worldwide are being hit with a cascade of pressures. See how threats from drought and pests to rising sea levels are taking their toll on trees.

National Geographic
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

5. And yet — AND YET — we also are not accounting for this when using forests as #carbonoffsets.

A multibillion-dollar industry has cropped up allowing polluters to pay to "offset" their carbon emissions by protecting or growing trees.

But what happens as those trees face drought, fire and insects? Well, our exclusive story showed that the #California agency that oversees the world's biggest offset program was not coming even close to accounting for those losses.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/forests-as-carbon-offsets-climate-change-has-other-plans

Polluters are using forests as ‘carbon offsets.’ Climate change has other plans.

Billions of dollars hinge on forests soaking up CO2 for decades to come. What happens when drought and fire kill the trees?

National Geographic
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

6. And here is a fantastic #interactive #map of #forest and #forests losses all over the over the globe over the past 20 years by #NationalGeographic #graphic geniuses, including @jasontreat Soren Walljasper, Martin Gamache and Kelsey Nowa

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/graphics/the-worlds-forests-decades-of-loss-and-change

Explore how the world’s forests have transformed over the past two decades

These maps and graphics take you on a tour of Earth’s forests—for better and for worse. See the countries that have the most intact forests, and those losses are mounting the fastest.

National Geographic
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

7. My colleagues at #NationalGeographic pulled out all of the stops to make this #climatechange issue something truly educational and beautiful. There is so much in there to unpack.

See our entire #forest #journalism package online here:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/issue/may-2022

May 2022 Issue

National Geographic stories take you on a journey that's always enlightening, often surprising and unfailingly fascinating. This month–saving forests.

National Geographic
Show threadMark ParringtonDec 20, 2022
@craigawelch really great thread and great articles! @wildfirescience
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022
@m_parrington @wildfirescience thank you!
Show threadJackie WolfDec 22, 2022
@craigawelch @jasontreat Its behind a paywall, but make sure they're catching the tree mortality in the Northeast. I'm now seeing mountains with a 50% mortality rate in W PA, W NY, and W MA, and given the flash droughts we're now experiencing, to me, our NE forests represent kindling at this point..
Show threadTonyduncDec 21, 2022
@craigawelch importent point!
Show threadSteady State ManchesterDec 31, 2022
@craigawelch
An important point to consider.
For example, in #GreaterManchester, new build is meant to be carbon net zero from 2028. Offsets will be a major plank (!) in the approach, especially for embodied emissions. Tree planting will be one element.
We are sceptical, even though offsetting will also include funding for energy conservation & renewables too.
Show threadBygone DivaDec 20, 2022

@craigawelch
Merry Christmas 😩
Goodbye garden
Sorry birdlife
#climatechange #heatwave

https://www.echo.net.au/2022/10/sad-and-distressing-massive-numbers-of-bird-deaths-in-australian-heatwaves-reveal-a-profound-loss-is-looming/

‘Sad and distressing’: massive numbers of bird deaths in Australian heatwaves reveal a profound loss is looming

Heatwaves linked to climate change have already led to mass deaths of birds and other wildlife around the world. To stem the loss of biodiversity as the climate warms, we need to better understand how birds respond.

The Echo
Show threadItsyDec 20, 2022
@craigawelch paywall
Show threadCraig WelchDec 21, 2022
@itsy https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/environment-and-conservation/2022/04/forests-are-reeling-from-climate-change-but-the-future-isnt-lost
Forests are reeling from climate change—but the future isn’t lost

Heat, drought, and bug infestations are killing trees worldwide. If we change course now, we can limit the damage.

National Geographic
Show threadItsyDec 21, 2022
@craigawelch thanks!
Show threadGary KrysztopikDec 20, 2022
@craigawelch I recently heard a podcast about a forest in South Carolina? that was slowly receding due to sea level rise. The many ways #Climate effects us.
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022
@garykrysztopik Yes, this is true. Saltwater intrusion is killing trees along the coast from Delaware to Florida ...
Show threadJackie WolfDec 22, 2022
@garykrysztopik @craigawelch They're called ghost forests, I think because of their greyish hue. I began seeing them 15 years ago along the DE coast. Also note, there are also drunken forests up north in the thawing permafrost soils cause they lean every which way. BTW, look north. The impacts and changes up there are remarkable and frightening.
Show threadDouglas PatonDec 20, 2022
@craigawelch wonderful! These look like they'll make some great fireside reading for today/tomorrow.
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022
@douglaspaton Thank you!!!
Show threadThe Big Data ClusterDec 20, 2022
@craigawelch Incredible #CriticalZone reporting. Thank you!
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022
@cznbigdata Thank YOU!
Show threadAnne OminousDec 20, 2022

@craigawelch thx for sharing. excellent journalism. and SO troubling that we are now witnessing our climate changing, ecosystems forever altered in front of our faces and still not much is happening to stop it.

reminds me of this line i recently read in an editorial encouraging scientists to start taking action:

"The life sciences – once a field dedicated to the study of living systems and our interactions with them – are increasingly becoming sciences of the dead."

https://elifesciences.org/articles/83292

Point of View: The biospheric emergency calls for scientists to change tactics

The ever-worsening climate and ecological crises calls for life scientists to engage in advocacy and activism to galvanise governments and the public into action.

eLife
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022
@rustoleumlove oof. That’s too close for comfort. And thank you for the kind words.
Show threadjustjessicaokDec 21, 2022
@craigawelch we have the map poster for this issue up in my house. Well done map and the whole issue was great. Great work.
Show threadCraig WelchDec 21, 2022
@justjessicaok Thank you!
Show thread➕Тонкий PickensDec 21, 2022
@craigawelch Heartbreaking
Show threadBigBluTiger 🐅🦚🅿️🦄Dec 21, 2022
@craigawelch we as humans, need to and can do something to help them regenerate. We need to be planting, nurturing, anything it takes to help.
Show threadPeace CoveyDec 22, 2022
@craigawelch thank you for this reporting and journalism. And hugs, it is hard to hear, but harder to tell i imagine.
Show threadLigia MorrisDec 22, 2022
@craigawelch it’s heartbreaking.
Show threadHazel Buchan CameronDec 22, 2022
@craigawelch @greenaspen
This is the issue I have for you as it includes Robbie's piece on forest elephants.
Show threadMarkDec 27, 2022

@craigawelch Really good stuff. Important, yet mostly depressing. Good to see China reforesting. I wonder if they’re going for quality & diversity, or simply quantity?

I’ve lost many trees in my little woods due to drought and disease. Interesting to see the scale of how this is playing out globally.

Show thread504_drDec 27, 2022

@craigawelch

All the more reason to end logging of old growth forests right now.

IPCC report to end logging by 2030 only gave logging industry and govts an excuse to log the most now, very quickly.

At this rate, there won't be any old growth forests left by 2030.

#WeAreKillingOurselves
#Collapse
#Biodiversity
#ClimateCrisis

Show threadJohn GordonJan 1, 2023

@craigawelch Great thread, thank you.

Here in St Paul MN we have had large early CO2 effects. We flipped climate “zones”, now more like Iowa. Our urban trees are changing (with human influence) to match insect and tree disease migrations)

Show threadLaura_VeilJan 2, 2023
@craigawelch @dragonfly