Craig WelchDec 20, 2022

1. My best #journalism this year:

Not long ago, I wrote a story about #forests. Every scientist said we’re losing them to #climatechange faster than expected. So #NationalGeographic, at my urging, dedicated its entire May issue to the future of forests.

We found that around the world, in places like #Yellowstone, #trees are burning but not regenerating. Forests are transitioning to something new. Some will never be the same. Others may never come back.

My cover story https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/forests-future-threatened-heat-drought-feature

Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

2. For our May issue, we got early access to tons of research.

For example, What is making scientists uneasy is the quickening pulse of extreme events—fire, storms, bug kills + mostly heat and drought, which worsen everything. That is inflicting mass mortality events on forests everywhere—not just in the American West.

Here is one of the studies we focused on, led by @wmhammond. It showed there have been #forest mass-mortality events in 675 spots around the world. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests - Nature Communications

Tree mortality is increasing due to droughts and other climate change-related stressors, but isolating climate signals for tree mortality is challenging. Here, the authors assemble a geo-referenced global database that quantifies how drought and hotter climate drive tree mortality events.

Nature
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

3. For example, Camille Stevens-Rumann, a #forest #ecologist, examined 1,485 sites from 52 fires in Colorado, Idaho, Montana + Washington.

Nearly 1/3 that burned since the yr 2000 aren’t coming back.

“And by ‘not recovering,’ I mean not a single tree—not one,” she said.

And here's the thing: Mass #tree deaths can shift forests that have survived since the last ice age to entirely new states.

And yet #IPCC models still can't accurately predict how often or fast that may happen.

Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

4. It's happening everywhere.

In 5 yrs #drought and insects killed more #spruce across #Europe than anytime in modern history.

In #Siberia, #fires burned 21 million acres in 2021—4x more than usual. Some forests are now grasslands.

In 2 years, up to 19% of all California sequoias—some alive since the reign of Julius Caesar—died in fires.

How is this happening? Heat and drought is sucking moisture from plants, pushing them past thresholds they've never experienced. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/graphics/an-illustrated-guide-to-how-heat-and-drought-are-killing-trees

An illustrated guide to how heat and drought are killing trees

Trees worldwide are being hit with a cascade of pressures. See how threats from drought and pests to rising sea levels are taking their toll on trees.

National Geographic
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

5. And yet — AND YET — we also are not accounting for this when using forests as #carbonoffsets.

A multibillion-dollar industry has cropped up allowing polluters to pay to "offset" their carbon emissions by protecting or growing trees.

But what happens as those trees face drought, fire and insects? Well, our exclusive story showed that the #California agency that oversees the world's biggest offset program was not coming even close to accounting for those losses.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/forests-as-carbon-offsets-climate-change-has-other-plans

Polluters are using forests as ‘carbon offsets.’ Climate change has other plans.

Billions of dollars hinge on forests soaking up CO2 for decades to come. What happens when drought and fire kill the trees?

National Geographic
Show threadCraig WelchDec 20, 2022

6. And here is a fantastic #interactive #map of #forest and #forests losses all over the over the globe over the past 20 years by #NationalGeographic #graphic geniuses, including @jasontreat Soren Walljasper, Martin Gamache and Kelsey Nowa

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/graphics/the-worlds-forests-decades-of-loss-and-change

Explore how the world’s forests have transformed over the past two decades

These maps and graphics take you on a tour of Earth’s forests—for better and for worse. See the countries that have the most intact forests, and those losses are mounting the fastest.

National Geographic
Show threadJackie Wolf
@craigawelch @jasontreat Its behind a paywall, but make sure they're catching the tree mortality in the Northeast. I'm now seeing mountains with a 50% mortality rate in W PA, W NY, and W MA, and given the flash droughts we're now experiencing, to me, our NE forests represent kindling at this point..
Dec 22, 2022 at 5:08pmWeb