Just tried ChatGPT. I asked it a series of specific Qs about areas I've studied in detail.

On all Qs, it gave answers that are plausible sounding but wrong. Not obviously wrong: wrong in subtle ways that need deep domain knowledge to grasp.

The ways humans will be practically misled by this kind of tech if trusted with, say, doling out medical, legal or business advice is horrific.

Letting this tech loose on the world will further destroy search engines that are already riddled with SEO BS.

These kind of technologies are a natural response to content-as-commodity—SEO, content marketing, the YouTube algorithm, influencer culture etc.

It doesn't matter that the content is bullshit, X units of content are needed, humans are expensive, let's have a machine that churns out content. Doesn't have to be true, doesn't need to have passed through an actual brain or have had any connection with reality.

"Thanks, I hate it."

OpenAI made a system for being wrong much more efficiently, delighting politicians, propagandists and bullshitters, and scaring the living crap out of everyone with any commitment to the general idea that there are things which are true in a broadly coherent reality that's shared between human beings.

(Also, these are the same people who are worried about existential risk, in as much as that risk involves weird sci-fi like Roko's basilisk but not the actual risk of stuff like climate change.)

@tommorris I have a simple test to show people how wrong the AI is that doesn't require deep domain knowledge:

Ask for works of classical English/German/Spanish literature written by a woman.

That the result is wrong will be immediately obvious.

@tommorris I don't think this is working very well anymore.

@tommorris but this question still illustrates it pretty well:
> Who were female chinese politicans

I chose Chinese politicians because ChatGPT will not have much training on chinese sources (as they'd have to have been translated to English or another latin script language)

@tommorris although asking for Finnish politicans is giving me an even more telling response:

Finland has had many significant female politicians, including Martti Ahtisaari, who was the President of Finland from 1994 to 2000 and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2008; Tarja Halonen, who was the first female President of Finland and served from 2000 to 2012;

1/2

@tommorris

and Anneli Jäätteenmäki, who was the first female Prime Minister of Finland and served from 2003 to 2007. Other notable female politicians from Finland include Elisabeth Rehn, who was the first female Defense Minister of Finland, and Liisa Hyssälä, who was the first female Speaker of the Parliament of Finland

@csddumi @tommorris

Well, some of those are right.

🙄

@iju @tommorris That's the danger of it.

That one correct fact does not imply correctness for the next.

@csddumi @tommorris

You're right! With news stories you can usually judge the trustworthiness by comparing facts you already know, and then deciding if to trust the new information.

@csddumi @tommorris to someone not familiar with finnish politics, why is this telling?
@lritter @tommorris it is contradicting itself.

@lritter @tommorris

Martti Ahtisaari is supposed to be a woman serving as president before the first woman serving as president.

@csddumi @tommorris It reacts well to corrections, e.g. when you say "Actually, Martti Ahtisaari is a woman", it will likely correct the statement.
@lritter @tommorris yeah. But that means you'll need to verify everything this qpp is saying. Regardless of whether anything else it says is correct
@lritter @csddumi @tommorris The point is, those warnings will not be there on the places where its output is copied.
@WAHa_06x36 @csddumi @tommorris hence why i posted it. its output is being misrepresented.

@lritter @WAHa_06x36 @tommorris I'm making it's origin clear.

But I don't think that'll always be the case.

And the ability to create convincing text on mass where facts and fiction are so close to each - shouldn't that give pause?

@csddumi @WAHa_06x36 @tommorris people misrepresenting the origin of texts they copied from somewhere else and misusing tools is not new. how do existing tools prevent this?
@lritter @csddumi @tommorris This is an automated way to make convincing misleading content. That’s kind of a dangerous thing.

@WAHa_06x36 @lritter @tommorris not quite.

More like a better search engine

@csddumi Please go back and read the thread from the start. This is EXACTLY the attitude that is incredibly dangerous here.
@WAHa_06x36 @csddumi @tommorris i argued that we already reached this step with high level autocorrect tools, as scammers don't even need to master the language anymore, but sure. the challenges to our collective intelligence keep increasing constantly. now even a convincingly written argument is enough. you _have_ to research the sources.
@WAHa_06x36 @csddumi @tommorris the abilities of million dollar powered right wing think tanks, now in the hands of everybody! what are we going to do?
@lritter @csddumi @WAHa_06x36 @tommorris you sound like a crypto guy justifying how their technology speeds up and automates scams

@tommorris 100% agree. But now, we are using this fallacy to cement it in systems that print out logic. It's fine as long as humans are involved, because it will inevitably be subjected to conflict, and thus the possibility for change.

We need legislation for this, now. We haven't even sufficiently legislated the current and the previous ear in surveillance capitalism, and now this is happening. Truly grim.

@tommorris Great. So, to review: We humans have invented machines capable of dispensing ersatz “information”. And this ersatz is *least* distinguishable as such, by the people *most* in need of authentic information.

This is a particularly worrisome development amid the ongoing Disinformation Pandemic.

We need better tools for tracing the origins of the information we consume.

@Cmdrmoto @tommorris We really need to be notarizing all existing human knowledge bases so that at least "existed before 2022" can be evaluated mechanically and used as a shortcut for knowing you're only dealing with human-generated or very-low-convincingness bullshit.
@dalias @tommorris Agreed that “attested by” signatures on useful information repositories - where those attestations could be cryptographically verified as belonging to a decentralized identifier - would be invaluable.
@Cmdrmoto @tommorris That's different and also valuable but I'm talking just about cryptographic proof of existence-at-time through a notary Merkle tree.
@dalias @tommorris True, a “pre-singularity” time stamp could help defend against this form of noise. It’s less certain to help me pick out high-quality information, but it’s at least a start
@dalias @tommorris and yes. I am using Singularity to describe this event. I consider the invention of a perfect bullshit machine to be more than I was ready for.

@dalias @tommorris I’ve been fretting about infohazards since the 1990s. I honestly believed I had thought of every plausible disinformation scenario, and understood the landscape.

But “computer that can effectively bullshit most humans on most topics” was *not* on my Bingo card.

@dalias @tommorris so uhh … @internetarchive ?

Is this a valid feature request?

@dalias @tommorris This would greatly increase my odds of finding *useful* information, since I could choose which DID attestations to whitelist. The days of allowing information from any old source into my brain - that was pre-singularity.
@tommorris It feels like we’re about to move from a period when society was put under huge pressure by misinformation, trolls, bot farms and filter bubbles, to one where it’s much worse.
@tommorris l see a lot of people trying this and completely missing the point. It's not an expert, how can it be? To work, it needed data, and they are quite open about where that data came from. I set it tasks like write a ghost story (style of output) setting the scene (data input).
@timaikin the point is: when unleashed on the world, it’ll produce a torrent of shit, and that shit will have negative consequences for our epistemic environment
@tommorris I can only speak from my experience of developing NLU models for interacting with complex data sets in the buildings. General AI is still Syfy it's still more mechanical Turk. Companies will over exaggerate for investment. The use of language like neural networks is more about trying to explain the mechanics than it actually being a biological organism.

@tommorris this is profound and very much true, as it is happening right now: one of top PR 'coaches' for indie musicians 'CyberPR', who I actually had some respect for, is now selling latest webinar that is coaching indie diy artists how to promote themselves online using AI tools to create content (texts and images) for their (semi-automated) stream of posts for social media.

😫

@tommorris This was my experience when I tried out a liberal arts question. ChatGPT completely mischaracterized Plato's views on rhetoric, but with convincing sentence structure.

For giggles, I tried it out on a specific finance question I'm working on, and it said it can't do that analysis, no matter what aspect I asked about. It's probably best if it stays that way.

@myemuisemo One of the questions I gave it was a question about English law. The answer it gave was roughly "since the law changed in year N, all agreements of type X are covered by rule Y" when the actual answer is agreements of type X are covered by Y unless there's already a provision in the text of the agreement, in which case that text still binds the agreement.

It's close but the difference between those is practically very significant.

@tommorris That’s disturbing, and a good deal more urgent than botching the classics.

@myemuisemo @tommorris

> For giggles, I tried it out on a specific finance question I'm working on, and it said it can't do that analysis

I heard that it can be manipulated to still answer such questions, either by starting a new thread, or by asking it to roleplay an expert in that field

@tommorris yes! I made a similar point about AI for code generation/tech questions: https://mas.to/@nielsa/109445673269190335
Niels Abildgaard (@[email protected])

@[email protected] As you've realized elsewhere (e.g. https://infosec.exchange/@jasonbaumgartner/109445444148769493 ) AI for complex code problems (just as is the case with Copilot) is often wrong in ways that are not immediately obvious. My fear is that encouraging tools like these to people who do not yet have the expertise to evaluate the answers given can be detrimemtal. To their learning, to the quality of code they provide.

mas.to

@tommorris This is an absolutely trivial bit of confirmation, but if you ask it to generate D&D character sheets it can generate something where all the numbers are in a plausible range, but if you start applying the normal character generation rules you discover that they're all wrong.

Which is exactly as you say: wrong in subtle ways that need deep domain knowledge to grasp.

@tommorris I tried it with a few engineering (programming and electronics) questions and came to a similar conclusion. It can summarize popular topics quite well, but can’t be trusted at all when it comes to important, subtle details.

Which I think everyone with common sense and basic knowledge how these things work should assume.

I‘m a bit worried by the naivety many tech people show in taking these fundamental issues as „solved“, predicting a lot of „finding out“.

@tommorris I think current ml models only shine in areas where imprecise results can be mitigated or results are tested separately, like chaotic system controllers, or proteine folding.

One could argue with software the programmer + compiler are testing the results, but there will be much complacancy and overtrust (AI writes implementation + test, the test succeeds, the code compiles, the programmer is happy, the implementation is still wrong).

@tommorris I‘ve already seen the argument „but does it produce more bugs than average humans“ (following the argument for self-driving cars not needing to be perfect as long as they crash cars less often than average humans).
@tommorris Accuracy was never a goal of that AI. Being confidently convincing, even if spouting bullshit is what it was built for. And that's pretty horrifying
@sieri @tommorris So, basically it simulates a college sophomore who only skimmed the reading but likes to make confident-sounding contributions to the in-class discussion.

@tommorris Nice.
I just tried something like this with very specific things from my field and I must say I was pleasantly surprised.

with a real technical problem, which recently occupied me for a few days, and where even professional usergroups were not much help, the A.I. did well and in the first attempt suggested that workaround in its solution list, which I had worked out at that time.

( is not meant to be a representative statement; just to share my temporary enthusiasm.)

@tommorris @davidgerard I had the same experience. I asked it questions about some open source software I maintain and it was wrong about some pretty basic stuff, like promoting a deprecated legacy API by claiming the current API didn't support basic functionality.

Makes me concerned about copilot, too.

@resuna @tommorris i said before that AI can simulate a dev who can talk their way past the interview and doesn't know what they're doing
@tommorris we'll need experts to teach them. I fear that a new political battleground will be warring AIs, either exerting leverage to gain access to time to teach major corporate or Govt AIs, or developing their own that they teach. So I could go to the conservative party's AI and say "what started the civil war" and they would give me a different version of the story, trained by their own politics.

@tommorris

I don't get your point. The AI is not meant to be exact. It is meant to produce redactable text. It is the publisher of any text produced responsability that it is correct. This IMHO does not really differ from the current situation where humans publish text that is not sound.

@Richard_Hull