Pwnallthethings

He's the richest man only because Telsa is a memestock.

Once people realize Tesla's value is high for the same basic reason FTX's was*, it'll normalize down to something a lot smaller.

* people put money in, and number go up; and because number go up, more people put more money in. All while paying lots of attention to the brand and the memes but without paying much attention to the fundamentals of the business

Nov 26, 2022 at 12:45amWeb
Show threadLazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈Nov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings the man's whole life is a 'pump and dump' trick.
Show threadThis Minute MattersNov 26, 2022

@Lazarou @Pwnallthethings

He's done a lot of pumping, but not so much dumping. Tesla and SpaceX really are incredible, and they may not have survived without Musk doing a lot of pumping and selling the future.

At some point you do have say maybe enough is enough...but if you're trying to do things people think are impossible you have to inspire people..if not investors, employees.

That's why his twitter thing seems like such an error. Who wants to work for him now.

Show threadCharredNov 26, 2022

@Pwnallthethings @ThisMinuteMatters @Lazarou

He has been doing a lot of dumping of TSLA since he offered to buy Twitter.

If he was just doing this for financial reasons, it means he values twitter stock priced over market vs his TSLA stock.

His actions become much less extraordinary/surprising if you assume he values TSLA at a lower than market price.

Show threadThat Anonymous CowardNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings
I invested in Tesla and all I got was to give Elon a 55 billion pay package
Show threadDavidNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I'm no financial analyst but yeah I think the price to earnings is still like 90x and feels like it should be a lot closer to its actual industry norm (like 10x). Or maybe even less than the norm, considering... well, everything
Show threadGeorge William HerbertNov 26, 2022

@Finagle_a_Hegel @Pwnallthethings It has industry best margins on cars now, and continues to innovate faster than competitors.

BYD seems to be next closest, with Ford showing potential. Hyundai/Kia maybe, most European brands seem deer in headlights on necessary changes.

Show threadstandevNov 26, 2022
@georgewherbert @Pwnallthethings @Finagle_a_Hegel Are the better margins enough to justify 10x the market cap of Ford on half the annual profits? I’m a little skeptical.
Show threadGeorge William HerbertNov 26, 2022
@standev @Pwnallthethings @Finagle_a_Hegel The future growth profile justifies something. Like, BYD is nothing in US or Europe now, but their relative tech leadership suggests strong eventual market position. Tesla took the luxury and performance sedan markets by storm and are moving laterally and down as production capacity scales. They’re in a race with existing majors’ electrification clue. So far they’re largely winning.
Show threadGeorge William HerbertNov 26, 2022
@standev @Pwnallthethings @Finagle_a_Hegel That said, gigacastings and structural batteries and wiring harness and vehicle electronics simplification aren’t generally patentable, and tech leads can be fickle. A lead can evaporate or invert if someone else innovates faster. And margins downmarket are much thinner, so more volume helps earnings less. So, a trend isn’t a guarantee by any means.
Show threadstandevNov 26, 2022
@georgewherbert @Pwnallthethings @Finagle_a_Hegel I don’t know enough to do anything but cede the point on technical edges. I’m still skeptical that their advantage in a niche justifies a market cap of 8-10x anyone else. Ford certainly has advantages in other highly profitable segments where Tesla has essentially no presence at all (trucks, for example).
Show threadGeorge William HerbertNov 26, 2022
@standev @Pwnallthethings @Finagle_a_Hegel yeah, Teslas SUVs are weird (but selling…) and Cybertruck still hasn’t shipped, whereas Fords Lightning and Maverick and hybrid & electric SUVs are well aligned and produceable and available now. Past performance is not guaranteed future results etc; Ford might credibly win the presumptive highly profitable Electric Truck market share battle.
Show threadstilescrisisNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings There was a point in time where it looked like Tesla was going to have self-driving cars a decade ahead of everyone else. That technology would be worth a lot. However, it turns out that was all smoke and mirrors, and they're already outpaced by Waymo and others. Only Tesla had the audacity to sell FSD before it worked, and had the chutzpah/RDF to pull it off.
Show thread💐 🏖 🌺 𝕂𝕚𝕂𝕚Nov 26, 2022

@stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings Teslas are considered by the Society of Automotive Engineers as capable of Level 2 autonomous driving. L4 or L5 are required for full self driving capability.

In fact, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi all offer L3 cars, where it is LEGAL to NOT hold the steering wheel, or keep feet on pedals (on divided highways & where available). Eyes must still be kept on road, however. Teslas have NONE of this.

Show threadstilescrisisNov 26, 2022
@ZeKik @Pwnallthethings I'm aware; I have a Model 3.
Show thread💐 🏖 🌺 𝕂𝕚𝕂𝕚Nov 26, 2022

@stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings I was kinda pointing it out for everyone else. 😉

Not sure if many realize that some manufacturers already offer L3 for order today.

I agree with you: it looked as though Tesla would take the lead. Then it turned out, Musk means to dupe everyone into paying $15K for L2 hardware. He thinks software and cameras will suffice. He is alone in that thinking AFAIK.

Show threadstilescrisisNov 26, 2022
@ZeKik @Pwnallthethings Also, he's got a pattern of alienating his best engineers and getting them to jump ship to his competitors. Notice how all the new Tesla products are falling behind schedule, and their AI platform is basically stalled out. We can see similar patterns at Twitter as well.
Show threadthatdavemarshNov 26, 2022
@ZeKik @stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings it is sounding like Eyesight (ironically Tesla’s first gen autopilot supplier) is developing a more visual based L3 solution for its customers. I watch this with interest - it’s a shame tech development needs to include a holy war on the side...
Show thread💐 🏖 🌺 𝕂𝕚𝕂𝕚Nov 26, 2022
@thatdavemarsh @stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings What is the “holy war” of which you speak? 🤷‍♂️
Show threadthatdavemarshNov 27, 2022
@ZeKik @stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings I’m just making fun of the sad situation where the fan bois trumpet whatever decision their lord and master makes as being the best choice and everyone else is wrong. No debate, no real analysis, and no venue for critical thinking and discussion.
Show threadChristopher PickslayNov 26, 2022
@stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings was there really ever such a point? Elon has said for years that “it’s coming this year”, but I’m not sure that was ever remotely believable given the delta from where it’s ever been
Show threadstilescrisisNov 26, 2022
@chrispix @Pwnallthethings 100,000 people have purchased the FSD package; presumably the promise of "FSD is right around the corner" was believable to them? I know at least one person who bought it so they could roll the price into the car loan, assuming it'd be ready in a year or two.
Show threadChristopher PickslayNov 26, 2022
@stilescrisis @Pwnallthethings agreed I think many people have believed him, just as there are many who believe he’s the only one who can rescue Twitter. I personally find it mystifying to pay that much for something that doesn’t exist, even if financed. Snake oil lives on…
Show threadJimmy 🧙🏼‍♂️Nov 26, 2022

👆🏼So much this. As a car company Tesla’s P/E ratio is 8x what Ford or GM or VW’s valuations are. And the argument that Tesla is worth 8x those companies because of the EV transition is becoming less persuasive every quarter as those companies chip away at Tesla’s EV market share. Not to mention that Tesla doesn’t seem in any rush to build their “mass market” affordable car that was the final step in Elon’s “secret master plan” from several years ago.

@Pwnallthethings

Show threadthatdavemarshNov 26, 2022
@jimmybh @Pwnallthethings yes. I think tesla knows there is no money/margin in that mass market car and that the mass market cannot afford/tolerate quality issues that the more affluent can juggle. There is very little upside to going down market and the execution has to be flawless. The upside for them is market share and a pathway to repeat buyers going up market. This has been a theory for traditional buyers but I believe has limited effectiveness.
Show threadBilliamNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings exactly, and that's why I put all my money into Bitcoin. (checks notes) ... dammit.
Show threadTank0rNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings that’s the entire dot com bust all over again
Show threadNicholas WeaverNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings
Which would probably wipe him out, because his assets are meme stock but he's got many many billions in real-world debt...
Show threadPatrick GrayNov 26, 2022
@ncweaver @Pwnallthethings it’s amazing that people don’t seem to know how leveraged he is. If TSLA share price implodes (very likely) things could get very sticky for him. They cook their books, too, so there’s always the (less likely) prospect of a sudden and spectacular collapse of the company itself
Show threadNicholas WeaverNov 26, 2022

@riskybusiness @Pwnallthethings

I don't see Tesla having cooked its books enough for such a collapse, it is a remarkably low-debt company.

Instead, it will be a grind down between Musk's tantrums, tons of competitive product hitting the market, and billion dollar suits for fraud ('self driving') and for killing people ('self driving')

Show threadPatrick GrayNov 26, 2022
@ncweaver @Pwnallthethings new models from the incumbents look really good, and I agree it’s a less likely scenario… but you never know what sort of goblins are lurking in their books. By some estimations their EV innovation is eclipsed by their accounting creativity
Show threadNicholas WeaverNov 26, 2022

@riskybusiness @Pwnallthethings

Their EV innovation was subsidizing battery packs using investor money from Wall Street. That is gone, as is the 'sell EV credits to incumbent auto-makers'.

Show threadJohn BreenNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings It seems to me that he is "richest" because of PayPal. I still don't understand, how did PayPal represent a multi-100-billion payday to a few like Thiel and Musk ? Money laundering ? Threat to PCI that had to be paid off ? To me, understanding this would explain may things.
Show threadNomen_nesciorNov 26, 2022
@jab01701mid @Pwnallthethings the answer is simple , they each got about $100 mill and then later invested in Facebook (Thiel) and Tesla (Musk) .. I would say that Elon is the better salesperson
Show threadsydneyNov 26, 2022
@jab01701mid @Pwnallthethings He made less than 200 million off PayPal, but that's well past the point where, if you've no morals, you can easily become a billionaire with some investing. Musk's entire valuation is because of his cult of personality. Tesla is struggling so badly that they lost several first mover advantages due to mismanagement. The only reason SpaceX hasn't had much in the way of competition is because it's a capital-intensive industry with few if any existing competitors.
Show threadChemicalTribeNov 27, 2022
@jab01701mid
Well millions but yeah, those days were dumb with ebay. Paypal can diaf
@Pwnallthethings
Show threadThe Mellow TiggerNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Some 15 years ago or so, my car insurance representative wanted to get into some new retirement product of theirs that was tied to the stock market. I refused. He asked why I was unwilling to invest in stocks. I told him I don't buy baseball trading cards, because their only value is how much somebody thinks the next person will pay for them.
Show threadPeter PrincipleNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings It's not all that hard to imagine Musk as the next Robert Vesco.
Show threadDrew ReedNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I hear people saying the dude's wealth depends more and more on SpaceX at this point. Gotta love a libertarian dependent on govt cash.
Show threadMark GardnerNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings A memestock with taxpayer-subsidized growth. All US citizens are involuntary investors
Show threadMark GardnerNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Same with #SpaceX, which is what makes the #birdsite so interesting—he acquired a pre-existing private sector shitshow
Show threadDr. ZedNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings In investment literature it's called "building castles in the air".
Show threadMikeNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings And because of a very overvalued market.
Show threadBrant VogelNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Ponzi scheme
Show threadsmtmNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings thing is, once german car manufacturers get their ducks in a row, and they have been slow at it, $tesla, in the premium segment, is toast.
Show threadPaul GennaiNov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings This is a bad take. Tesla is overvalued, yes, but it’s not for the same reasons
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Musk is toxic & overpaid but Tesla makes good (but not perfect) cars.
The EV revolution is accelerating & the stock price reflects that, along with legacy automakers slowness to go fully EV.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings the issue with the EV revolution accelerating, which Musk deserves credit for, is that multiple high end EV’s will hit the market soon. That doesn’t bode well for Tesla’s market share and stock price. The CEO alienating a significant portion of their customer base isn’t great for them either.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings (As others have said) Tesla has big margins while several other carmakers are losing money on every EV they sell, plus Tesla are shipping lots of cars while other manufacturers EVs are relatively scarce, and Tesla aren't standing still so it'll be unlikely legacy carmakers can overtake anytime soon, if ever (factories for fossil fueled cars will largely be valueless assets, very soon).
(BTW, I drive an EV, but it's not a Tesla.)
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings “…several other carmakers are losing money on every EV they sell...” do you have a source for that? And even if that is the case a lot of the costs they are incurring are related to them entering the market, retooling factories etc. Saying that factories for fossil fuel cars will be “valueless assets, very soon” is frankly a ridiculous statement. What’s stopping them from just converting them to produce EV’s?
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings I qualified my statement, body & interior is basically identical but drive-train (engine, transmission, etc.) factories will obviously be worthless.
If converting to making EVs was as simple as your question suggests, they would've done so already & there wouldn't be EV scarcity for legacy carmakers.
I hope they get their acts together, we need more EVs & choice.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings I would think scarcity of EV’s has more to do with sourcing of raw materials required for EV’s and post-pandemic supply chain issues than an inability to pivot to EV’s. I don’t think it’ll be easy for them to pivot, but they’re huge publicly traded multinational companies with decades of experience manufacturing automobiles, so I don’t think it’ll be as difficult as you seem to believe. It’ll cost, and a lot of them can absorb those costs.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings I think legacy carmakers will have EV’s readily available and easy to purchase in the next two years. They were just behind the times as far as environmental and regulatory concerns.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings There's been some stupid head-in-the-sand statements from certain CEOs, suggesting people don't want EVs because they don't like their existing, inferior EV options, or that hydrogen was the future, so of course they haven't pivoted, plus it's difficult to if they aren't making profits on EVs yet.
Look at VW firing their CEO who did want to shift to fully EV.
Denial has been strong & now some like GM say it'll be yet another 2 years.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings not to get too conspiratorial but the connection between carmakers and big oil is strong, and that may have played a role in their reluctance to pivot. As governments (hopefully) take more proactive stances on emissions I don’t think they’ll have much of a choice as to whether or not to commit to the pivot.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings If it comes down to say not pivoting or not selling cars in California I think whether they are reluctant or not won’t be an issue.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings Yes, they've lobbied to delay, stuck with what they've been building for a century.
They will finally have to change & quickly or they'll go bust (several companies will fail).
I'm surprised at Toyota; they had their hybrids but bizarrely didn't go the next step to eliminate the petrol/diesel engine and now their one pure EV, the bz4x, is so bad.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings who do you see failing? You seem to be more up on the specific rollouts of EV’s of different brands than I am so I’m interested to hear your prediction.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings Stellantis look to be in trouble (Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Peugeot, Opel being several of their brands), but all of the Japanese makers are even worse off: Toyota may be kept alive by a govt bailout, but the others are dead companies walking.
I called it the EV revolution for a reason; all legacy makers are at risk. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I hope they can pivot fast, but Chinese EV makers are coming.
Show threadweltenbĂźrgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings stellantis is fine. Here in Europe they are one of the biggest players in the EV market. It just happens that these cars are not sold in US: Jeep Avenger, Peugeot 208 / 3008, Opel Corsa / Mokka etc.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@mentese @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings You're right that their American arm is their real problem, & I know they sell some EVs under their European brands, but how many & are those EV sales profitable?