PwnallthethingsNov 26, 2022

He's the richest man only because Telsa is a memestock.

Once people realize Tesla's value is high for the same basic reason FTX's was*, it'll normalize down to something a lot smaller.

* people put money in, and number go up; and because number go up, more people put more money in. All while paying lots of attention to the brand and the memes but without paying much attention to the fundamentals of the business

Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Musk is toxic & overpaid but Tesla makes good (but not perfect) cars.
The EV revolution is accelerating & the stock price reflects that, along with legacy automakers slowness to go fully EV.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings the issue with the EV revolution accelerating, which Musk deserves credit for, is that multiple high end EV’s will hit the market soon. That doesn’t bode well for Tesla’s market share and stock price. The CEO alienating a significant portion of their customer base isn’t great for them either.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings (As others have said) Tesla has big margins while several other carmakers are losing money on every EV they sell, plus Tesla are shipping lots of cars while other manufacturers EVs are relatively scarce, and Tesla aren't standing still so it'll be unlikely legacy carmakers can overtake anytime soon, if ever (factories for fossil fueled cars will largely be valueless assets, very soon).
(BTW, I drive an EV, but it's not a Tesla.)
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings “…several other carmakers are losing money on every EV they sell...” do you have a source for that? And even if that is the case a lot of the costs they are incurring are related to them entering the market, retooling factories etc. Saying that factories for fossil fuel cars will be “valueless assets, very soon” is frankly a ridiculous statement. What’s stopping them from just converting them to produce EV’s?
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings I qualified my statement, body & interior is basically identical but drive-train (engine, transmission, etc.) factories will obviously be worthless.
If converting to making EVs was as simple as your question suggests, they would've done so already & there wouldn't be EV scarcity for legacy carmakers.
I hope they get their acts together, we need more EVs & choice.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings I would think scarcity of EV’s has more to do with sourcing of raw materials required for EV’s and post-pandemic supply chain issues than an inability to pivot to EV’s. I don’t think it’ll be easy for them to pivot, but they’re huge publicly traded multinational companies with decades of experience manufacturing automobiles, so I don’t think it’ll be as difficult as you seem to believe. It’ll cost, and a lot of them can absorb those costs.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings I think legacy carmakers will have EV’s readily available and easy to purchase in the next two years. They were just behind the times as far as environmental and regulatory concerns.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings There's been some stupid head-in-the-sand statements from certain CEOs, suggesting people don't want EVs because they don't like their existing, inferior EV options, or that hydrogen was the future, so of course they haven't pivoted, plus it's difficult to if they aren't making profits on EVs yet.
Look at VW firing their CEO who did want to shift to fully EV.
Denial has been strong & now some like GM say it'll be yet another 2 years.
Show threadMatthew Rodier
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings not to get too conspiratorial but the connection between carmakers and big oil is strong, and that may have played a role in their reluctance to pivot. As governments (hopefully) take more proactive stances on emissions I don’t think they’ll have much of a choice as to whether or not to commit to the pivot.
Nov 26, 2022 at 5:39amWeb
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings If it comes down to say not pivoting or not selling cars in California I think whether they are reluctant or not won’t be an issue.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings Yes, they've lobbied to delay, stuck with what they've been building for a century.
They will finally have to change & quickly or they'll go bust (several companies will fail).
I'm surprised at Toyota; they had their hybrids but bizarrely didn't go the next step to eliminate the petrol/diesel engine and now their one pure EV, the bz4x, is so bad.
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @Pwnallthethings who do you see failing? You seem to be more up on the specific rollouts of EV’s of different brands than I am so I’m interested to hear your prediction.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings Stellantis look to be in trouble (Fiat, Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Peugeot, Opel being several of their brands), but all of the Japanese makers are even worse off: Toyota may be kept alive by a govt bailout, but the others are dead companies walking.
I called it the EV revolution for a reason; all legacy makers are at risk. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I hope they can pivot fast, but Chinese EV makers are coming.
Show threadweltenbürgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings stellantis is fine. Here in Europe they are one of the biggest players in the EV market. It just happens that these cars are not sold in US: Jeep Avenger, Peugeot 208 / 3008, Opel Corsa / Mokka etc.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@mentese @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings You're right that their American arm is their real problem, & I know they sell some EVs under their European brands, but how many & are those EV sales profitable?
Show threadweltenbürgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings whether they’re are profitable or not I do not have a clue but looking at Tesla’s history - it took them more than 10 years to be profitable - I’d give them some more time. In the meantime they will have cash inflow from there ICE cars.
Show threadweltenbürgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings https://efahrer.chip.de/news/kennen-sie-stellantis-mega-konzern-verdraengt-jetzt-tesla_108973
Show threadweltenbürgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings it says that in 2022 Stellantis (and Volkswagen) has sold more BEV cars in Europe than Tesla. But that Tesla will probably catch up towards end of year. Tesla has the most selling cars but only two models whereas Stellantis and Volkswagen have a plethora of cars. And especially VW wouldn’t sell them at a loss.
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@mentese @Pwnallthethings @matthewrodier It was widely reported that VW in particular loses money on each EV, companies do this rather than lose sales entirely to competitors, but it's unsustainable. It rings true & explains why ID cars interiors are worse (e.g. hard plastics) than equivalent VW fossil cars (cost cutting where VW could).
Thanks for the sales numbers, including about Stellantis, they're better than I'd realised but still need to increase
Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @mentese @Pwnallthethings VW expects EV sales to match profit margins on ICE cars in 2 years time, which supports what I was saying: they are losing money bc they’re entering a new market and there are costs associated with that. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagens-ev-business-profitable-combustion-engines-sooner-than-planned-ceo-2022-05-12/
Volkswagen's EV profit margins to match combustion engines sooner than planned - CEO

Volkswagen <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/VOWG_p.DE" target="_blank">(VOWG_p.DE)</a> expects its electric vehicle business to be as profitable as its fossil fuel-burning cars sooner than planned, its chief executive Herbert Diess said on Thursday.

Reuters
Show threadSandrew Nov 26, 2022
@matthewrodier @mentese @Pwnallthethings I hope so, but I worry.
At least there are positives with VW's EV platform (it's efficient); the same can't be said for Toyota.
Show threadweltenbürgerNov 26, 2022
@Sandrew @matthewrodier @Pwnallthethings losing money for another 2 years is not much. Tesla USP “deliverable BEV cars” is diminishing. Given the choice between a BMW and a Tesla I’d take the BMW: every single time.
Show threadDianne HackbornNov 26, 2022

@matthewrodier @Sandrew @Pwnallthethings I think one of the big advantages Tesla has right now in the U.S. is the supercharger network & route planning... it makes the experience of their cars significantly better than other options.

However that looks like it is going to change, as the government is now driving them to open it up. It will be very interesting to see where that goes. (Especially as they keep doing stupid things like removing the radar and now parking sensors from their cars.)

Show threadMatthew RodierNov 26, 2022
@hackbod @Sandrew @Pwnallthethings Tesla seems to have production issues that people overlook bc they want to encourage what they’re doing, are enthralled with the CEO, etc. As the hero worship of their leader decreases so does the general willingness of the public to accept things like delays and poor manufacturing. If your Mercedes showed up six months late with a bad paint job you wouldn’t be so forgiving, and soon that standard will apply to them.