Pwnallthethings

PentagonPresSec says DOD is aware of press alleging that two Russian missiles have struck inside Poland, but does not have any information right now to corroborate the reports.

-- DOD doing the smart thing and making 1000% sure of the facts before saying anything on record

Nov 15, 2022 at 7:28pmWeb
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 15, 2022

Would be very very cautious with takes getting ahead of the #Polish government btw on expected response in scale or kind.

In particular, be careful about takes regarding #ArticleV or full-scale response. Article V is not a trip wire and it's not automatic. It needs both to meet the legal criteria *and* the political criteria for entering war.

It's not clear to me yet that the technical criteria will be met here, but even if they were, the political will for hot war with R is very very very low

Show threadAshtonNov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings these kinds of mistakes however increase EU will to bankroll Ukraine’s war efforts.
Show threadRussNov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Maybe they'll exert pressure to have some ATACMS deployed to Ukraine?
Show threadWndlBNov 15, 2022

@Pwnallthethings Thanks. Between you and Stavridis on MSNBC, no reason to duck under the desk—yet.

OTOH, this village is not near anything known to be major in UKR.

Show threadJulien RoncagliaNov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings also article 5 is about mutual assistance to restore the security of the NATO area. It doesn’t mean war if the members don’t think that it’s the solution. Poland could ask for missile defense systems
Show thread₵ⱧⱤł₴ ⱤØ₥₱ NZ6F 🇺🇦💪🏻🇬🇱❤️Nov 15, 2022

@Pwnallthethings Seems likely accidental, but one has to wonder if #NATO would use this event to try and enforce restrictions for #Russia's operations in #Ukraine. No fly zone?

An intentional attack would be more than 2 stray rockets, I would wager.

Show threadTexan in CanadaNov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings . The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the economies of the NATO nations. It has caused rising fuel costs, food shortages and general chaos and suffering and expense in all of the NATO countries. It seems to me that while this is not a direct attack on NATO it is an indirect attack. At what point should an indirect attack trigger a direct NATO response?
Show threadNico Nov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I for one can’t wait for our nuclear fallout overlords to take over
Show threadMichael KohneNov 15, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I don't think there is any universe where this isn't a straight-forward screw-up, either of equipment or people. No one's going to war over this, even assuming that the missiles are Russian (which does seem likely).
Show threadposiczkoNov 15, 2022

@Pwnallthethings No official statement from the Polish government yet. Per one of the Polish Army generals, Gen Bieniek, it is possible that the Ukrainian railway interchange on the other side of the border was targeted and the missiles missed.

https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,29143977,byc-moze-mierzyli-w-wezel-kolejowy-gen-mieczyslaw-bieniek.html

"Być może mierzyli w węzeł kolejowy". Gen. Mieczysław Bieniek o możliwych scenariuszach

- Z dużym przekonaniem mówię, że to były zabłąkane pociski, które spadły na nasze terytorium - powiedział w TVN24 gen. Mieczysław Bieniek. Amerykańska agencja prasowa Associated Press poinformowała, że na terytorium Polski spadły dzisiaj dwie rosyjskie rakiety. Wciąż nie ma oficjalnego komunikatu rządu.

wiadomosci.gazeta.pl