Eamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022

Great to have so much interaction from the thread I did yesterday about #GameTheory strategies for the detection of #ExtraTerrestialIntelligence.

https://astrodon.social/@eamonn_kerins/109327400145858571

Maybe every Friday should be #AlienFriday!

Thought it'd be useful to get to know the views of people tuning into these posts. So, below, a thread of 7 polls of your views on #SETI.

They'll stay up for a week. If you'd like them to have a statistical rigor that #ProfJohnCurtis would be proud of then please #boost to others.

Eamonn Kerins (@[email protected])

So, it's time to talk about #aliens. Is the search for #intelligent #life just an impossible search for a microscopic pin within a mountain-sized haystack? Or is there a way to try and be smart about how we search? A thread about some work I've been involved with that addresses this question... (1/n) If you enjoy the thread, and you think others may do too, then please #boost it!

Astrodon - The Astro Community
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
Do you think there is, or ever has been, life on other worlds that we would recognise as intelligent?
Yes, surely there has to be
81.9%
No way
2.4%
I'm on the fence
14.2%
Really not bothered
1.6%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn Kerins
Is it worthwhile listening out for the possibility of signals transmitted by an alien civilisation?
Yes, we'll learn something
90.3%
No, it's a waste of time and/or money
6.3%
Don't really care
3.4%
Poll ended at .
Nov 12, 2022 at 7:15pmWeb
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
Do you think evidence for alien life of some kind will be discovered within the next 50 years?
Yes!
39.7%
I doubt it.
53.8%
No chance!
6.5%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
If scientists become sure that they have received a genuine signal from an intelligent extraterrestrial civilisation, how would you wish them to communicate this news?
Full public disclosure ASAP
52.9%
Prepare in advance how best to break the news
41.4%
Inform government agencies and let them handle it
4.8%
Keep it secret. There's enough bad news around.
1%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
Would you consider an announcement of contact with an intelligent extraterrestrial civilisation to be
Good news
46%
Bad news
6.3%
Neither. I'd reserve judgement
47.7%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
How do you feel about the idea of humans deliberately sending their own signals into space so that they could be discovered by another alien civilisation?
Great idea. Do it!
27.7%
Sure, why not
33%
I'm uneasy about the idea
31.7%
It's a huge mistake
7.6%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022

Do you think governments and/or scientists know more about aliens than they're letting on to the public?

(this is the final question)

Yes
16%
No
58.2%
Not sure
16.4%
Don't care
9.4%
Poll ended at .
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022

BTW I'm going to avoid making any further comment on this #alien themed thread. I'll let the #SETI polls build their own momentum. But it's great to see the lively debate and opinions on #FirstContact developing under the thread. Some great comments!

I'll have more to say next weekend.

Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022

For any non-UK #mastodonians who may be unfamiliar with Professor Sir John Curtice (this time I've spelt his name correctly). He is a political scientist at the University of Strathclyde. He's become something of a cultural institution and is a regular face on TV screens here whenever elections come around.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Curtice

John Curtice - Wikipedia

Show threadGraham LoganNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins Sir John Curtice, a knight of the realm for services to “any BBC political discussion at short notice”
Show threadAstro DadNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins There was a really good Planetary Radio podcast on this recently.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2iMy0XlQFRDIPIBsQrjqNY?si=oTYzccqxSli0I3EeITZTrw&utm_source=copy-link
Space Policy Edition: The Geopolitics of a Successful SETI Detection

Listen to this episode from Planetary Radio: Space Policy Edition on Spotify. How will nations react if (when?) humanity detects the presence of an alien intelligence or civilization? That’s the topic Planetary Society Chief Advocate Casey Dreier takes up with his guest, astrophysicist Jason Wright.

Spotify
Show threadJoseph K’s BrotherNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins Is this you doing answer 2 from the first question? 😋
Show threadDewi IoanNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins We've done it already ....
Show threadJ. WilliamsNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins I'm worried we'll start getting aliens trying to call us about the planet's extended warranty, but it's possible we'll win the Galactic Powerball and they need to call and let us know. So I support it, with trepidation.
Show threadColin MurphyNov 12, 2022

@arcanegoat @eamonn_kerins

But the chances of winning Glactic Powerball are astronomical - which would be so fitting!

Serious[1] question then - is any umbridge, or pride, felt over the use of the term 'astronomical' for large numbers outside of astronomy?

[1] As I can be.

Show threadDavid Neil RobinsonNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins We've been sending signals into space ever since we discovered radio waves. Every public broadcast since is now and always has been broadcasting to the heavens.
Show threadAstro DadNov 12, 2022
@DDIGITALMEDIA @eamonn_kerins I'm not sure that those signals propogate very far, and background radiation is probably going to make it hard to hear.
Show threadDavid Neil RobinsonNov 12, 2022

@astrodad @eamonn_kerins

120 light years is pretty good since 1900 as to if there's anything alive and intelligent enough to detect radio within that space is another matter.

Show threadSchemenNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins ah yes, the dark forest solution to the fermi paradox is scaring the shit out of me. Luckily, most of our signals - as far as I am aware or read - should‘ve degraded to backgounr noise ag this point.
Show threadIanDEvansNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins To be honest. I find it hard to post on social media so I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
Show threadJay of the IceniNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins I'm loving that result! The ever-cautious homo sapiens 😁
Show threadDr. Fred Calef IIINov 13, 2022
@eamonn_kerins after reading the “Three Body Problem”, I don’t know how to respond to this question. I’d normally be pro-signal, but is that just me being overly optimistic? I’m still pro-signal, but that book did make me think.
Show threadRRBNov 16, 2022
@eamonn_kerins of those who do not like it, how many have read Dark Forest?
Show thread~/Lucyyy 💙Nov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins
Best case: new space friends
Worst case: We were gonna do ourselves in at somepoint anyway
Show threadspekNov 13, 2022
@eamonn_kerins definitely good news, unfortunately the larger world would see this as a threat. The extraterrestrial civilisation would instantly become our enemies :(
Show threadAstro DadNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins For info, couldn't see the full details of these options before answering.
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 12, 2022
@astrodad hmm. May depend on the app you're using. I noticed that on @Tusky using an android phone I could read the options in full before they are answered but they then don't display correctly afterwards. Flipping the phone to landscape mode made them all fully readable again.
Show threadWill RossNov 13, 2022
@eamonn_kerins Though tbh, scientists don't have a great track record in mass communication.
Show threadMeercat ✅ 
Nov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins Even if we find a probable evidence, it will be diffilcult to be sure. That’s what I think anyway
Show threadKnut MoråNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins i think yes (some atmospheric spectral signature), but the data will be subject to large systematic uncertainties making room for continued doubt
Show threadschrotieNov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins Interesting, that so relatively few people expect evidence for _life_ to be found. Life != intelligence. I rate the chances of finding traces of primitive life in the solar system or organic origin molecules in exoplanet athmospheres pretty high ...
Show threadToot Zi Nov 12, 2022
@eamonn_kerins I think it’s like lottery. The chances of getting anything are very slim I think. But… if they find anything it’s would be a real “jackpot”. Changing the fundamentals of our philosophy of existence, it would explode everybody’s mind.
Show threadWill RossNov 13, 2022
@eamonn_kerins I do care but I don't know.
Show threadEamonn KerinsNov 13, 2022
@TwistedByKnaves
It's interesting, a lot of people have the same reservation about expressing opinions based on little or zero knowledge (ie beliefs). Yet I think we all do this subconsciously all the time in our every day lives. Eg we often form an opinion of someone just on their appearance or a short conversation. Holding beliefs is pretty instinctive, even if often completely wrong. For this poll I'd say don't worry about being wrong. None of us have the answers.