Esteban Moro
I made a (stupid 🙃) error on the daily growth of users on Twitter. Here is the correct Monday version of my plot. Mastodon is growing slower than Twitter but is catching up. I got caught up in the excitement 🤦‍♂️.
Nov 7, 2022 at 2:22pmWeb
Show threadJohannes  Nov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro thanks for updating this! That notification was a first for me. Very cool.
And still very impressive numbers… we’ll hit that dotted line in double-digit hours no doubt!
Show threadJuan LuisNov 7, 2022
@jkbecker @estebanmoro "Esteban edited a post" nice!! This is how it should be!
Show threadRubenNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro Thanks for correcting your mistake! I too got exited and boosted your toot without checking the numbers.

Love that your edit of the first toot showed up as "edited" in my notifications! Your correction would easily have been drowned out on certain other platforms due to its algorithmic and hype-driven nature.

Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022
@rsolva Thank you Ruben. I didn't know that people got notified of my update. That's so cool! I love it.
Show threadKamil BernaertsNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Thank you for correcting! Proof of both your academic standards and the strength of this platform.
Show threadwas B (this is my old account)Nov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro thanks for updating! Would love if you’d not call your mistakes (or yourself) stupid
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022
@b_cavello I make a lot of mistakes in my data analysis. But this was really so trivial! Thanks anyway for your message
Show threadGtmlosangelesNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro @b_cavello you can almost always replace “stupid” with “human” and come up with something far more meaningful and far less ableist. 😎
Show threadwas B (this is my old account)Nov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro @Gtmlosangeles 💯🙌💖
Show threadAlex Barredo 📉Nov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro the Twitter new users is mDAU for Q2-Q1 divided by 90 days, to average it out? like so?
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022

@Barredo Thanks Alex. To get a little bit more perspective, I was using 2022-Q2 (237.8M) and 2021-Q4 (217). Thus

(237.8M-217M)/180 = ~ 115k

In any case, it is an oranges-to-apples comparison, but it is good to get the number of oranges and apples right.

Show threadAlex Barredo 📉Nov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro I see! I think the methodology is as best as it can with the data we can get right now
Show threadarfonzoNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro still pretty fucking impressive, given Twitter is burning through $4 milliion/day, and I am pretty sure (unfortunately for #fediverse admins) we're not seeing $4mil in aggregated donations daily!

Thank you for the transparency and updating us about the error--it happens. 

Show threadBob KoppNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Not sure how exactly to interpret it, but I joined toward the end of last week; my follower count is already at about 5% of its Twitter level and follows at about 12%. Not as easy data to aggregate, but seems like there’s important systems analysis data at that level…
Show threadDerek Caelin 🌱Nov 7, 2022
@bobkopp @estebanmoro Do I read this right? 85,000 new Mastodon users *per day*? That's an incredible volume if so. Hope the distributed network can handle it.
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022
@derek @bobkopp Exactly. 85000 new mastodon users *per day*
Show threadSteve BrumbyNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro - hoorah for the edit button!
Show threadElisabeth RevansNov 8, 2022
@stevenpbrumby @estebanmoro Where is the edit button? I have wanted to correct at least a million typos but can't find it! I'm using the Mastodon official app on Android. Is it on there yet?
Show threadSteve BrumbyNov 8, 2022
@domowoman @estebanmoro - @estebanmoro ?
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 8, 2022
@stevenpbrumby @domowoman I only see the edit button on the web app, not on the iOS official app. Maybe other apps have that possibility.
Show threadElisabeth RevansNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro @stevenpbrumby thanks Estaban. I can't see an edit button on this app yet. But I'm notorious for missing the obvious!
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 8, 2022
@domowoman @stevenpbrumby here:
Show threadCarl ColglazierNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Good on you for the correction. 98 boosts on the original; 18 so far on the correction. Turns out this problem isn't unique to the other site. Going to boost this to help.
Show threadCarl ColglazierNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Super cool you can edit in a correction and (I think) this notifies people.
Show threadMattia MarastiNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro it might be a good idea to fit a diffusion model (Bass maybe even if it's not the right one) to predict the number of users in next days.
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022
@marastimattia Nice idea. I put the data, you build the model? 😉
Show threadMattia MarastiNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro deal (but i'll be very busy tomorrow, so I might publish it on wednesday)
Show threadPaul Wilde  :dontpanic_nobg:Nov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro is that just mastodon instances or the entire fediverse? I know loads of newcomers have signed up to Pleroma (15k in the last month), pixelfed(12k), Misskey, peertube, writefreely, etc. instances as well - I'm sure those numbers have to be getting up there1
Show threadAvocate du gras sucré saléNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Is there a graphic about total users too, excluding those inactive for more than 6 or 12 months ? I wonder if users stay or not after those peaks
Show threadplaceholderNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Looking forward to the next graph. This place seems pretty chill. We'll only grow that much more.
Show threadMrs Mouse at workNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro does twitter continue to publish numbers? I wonder if they'll go silent about that soon.

anyway, I hope to see updates to this soon.

Show threadjimmyrayreidNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro oh man I joined #mastadon on the 5th.

I haven't followed the herd this hard since I pestered my mum for an action man. I just wouldn't take "you can buy one with your own wages" for an answer.

Show threadE. Drake KajiokaNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro Thank you for all of this!

One has to imagine that a lot of these daily created users on Twitter are bots, yeah? And the same would almost certainly not be true of Mastodon?

From a community standpoint I'm not even sure explosive growth is great, but it's all very interesting and certainly an expression of public sentiment!

Show threadMark AmblerNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Mistakes happen.
Show threadMatthew ValloneNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro Interesting analysis. Is this net new users or just new users? It seems like twitter would be experiencing some fall-off.
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 7, 2022
@matthewvallone it is the difference of number of accounts across mastodon servers between days.
Show threadstop genocide punch nazisNov 7, 2022
@estebanmoro I wonder how many new Twitter users are humans...
Show threadKayhrynTinkNov 7, 2022

@estebanmoro

Now why is this making me laugh?😂

Show threadCoach Pāṇini ®Nov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro I did not realize the DAU number was within striking distance. Whoa!
Show threadAndrés AlvarezNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro I’m one of those new folks! Do you know if there have been any noticeable slowdowns in service with the new influx of users? Us early tooters (is that right? Lol) will probably be helping our friends migrate if Twitter does start tanking
Show threadKatNov 10, 2022
@Triple_A_Photog "Tooters" LOL..
Show threadElisabeth RevansNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro Love that you've immediately corrected. So understandable to get caught up in the excitement. The buzz must be amazing and holding on to fact-checking is admirable and shows the character that has brought so many to your Fediverse.
Show threadthijmenstarNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro Those poor mastodon admins that have seen their numbers skyrocket since the the last few weeks.
Show threadZefNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro lies, damn lies and graphs 🤡
Show threadFelipe L. Sologuren G.Nov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro thanks, can you explain in terms of growth? I mean, as a percentage of its own size, I think Mastodon greatly outperforms, isn't?
Show threadCynebealdNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro All the bigger sites seem to have problems keeping up with the influx and are temporarily closing and re-opening registrations
Show threadlunchtime  Nov 8, 2022

@estebanmoro

According to https://bitcoinhackers.org/@mastodonusercount, new 🐘 users exceed your dotted line for the other place (unless I'm misinterpreting something, always a possibility :) )

Mastodon Users (@[email protected])

39.7K Posts, 0 Following, 1.19K Followers · User Count Bot for all known Mastodon instances

Bitcoin Mastodon
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 8, 2022
@lunchtime_o_boulez Yes, it did! But again is apples-to-oranges comparison, because they measure somehow different things
Show threadlunchtime  Nov 8, 2022

@estebanmoro

Ah, crap does it? Is there a way to coerce these into measuring the same thing?

Show threadAlexander (Sasha) Wait ZaranekNov 8, 2022
@estebanmoro do you happen to know the Twitter October 2022 total NEW users? Are monthly new users available?
Show threadRaphaël Martin-MeliziNov 9, 2022
@estebanmoro It seems the FT has made the same error 🧐
Show threadMrs Mouse at workNov 11, 2022
@estebanmoro
Curious about the src of the twitter numbers, because 2022 isn't over, I presume that's the average for jan-sept?
Show threadEsteban MoroNov 11, 2022
@MrsMouse Twitter published the number of users in the platform for Q1 and Q2. This is the average of the new ones by day by comparing with Q4 in 2021
Show threadMrs Mouse at workNov 11, 2022
@estebanmoro Thank you :)