anlomedadNew AMOC paper by vanWesten's team in Utrecht
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC022651
This study isn't about collapse impacts, but they do add some information.
2 other also published papers concern impacts and are cited in the conclusion at the end of the paper.
What this study wanted to determine: where is the early warning signal location so we can monitor and estimate the time of arrival?
Earlier studies by the team also searched for it. And one pointed to Southern Atlantic at 34°S. I recall hearing vanWesten say on a podcast (ClimateChat maybe?), that the Cold Blob in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is not a good location.
But: that one at 34°S was found during the experiment of a pre-industrial hosing experiment without climate change.
Now they looked again and specifically under climate change and specifically at the Cold Blob.
Turns out, in some conditions, it is a very good early warning location, in others not so much, namely with big freshwater pulses.
Or at least, that's how I understand the Conclusion part of the paper.
That 34°S turns out to be not a good location in real world climate change (IUUC) is quite good. Because high-resolution proxies about past behaviour have not been studied from there, and monitoring by ships is too scarce, making reanalyses like EN4 by UKMetOffice for example, unreliable in that area in the South Atlantic.
We'd be flying blind if 34°S were the canary in the coal mine. 🖖🏽
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#ClimateChange
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#Collapse
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