I asked #SocialismAI “What is the history of oil extraction and its geopolitics?”

ANSWER BELOW!

#Oil #OilProduction #Imperialism

https://ai.wsws.org/en/go/1f780b27f0f9d93d

Kazakhstan May Miss Record Oil Output Target in 2026 Amid Infrastructure Disruptions

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-may-miss-record-oil-output-target-in-2026-amid-infrastructure-disruptions/

Chevron, Shell closing in on first big oil deals in Venezuela...

International oil majors Chevron and Shell are closing in on the first big oil production deals with Venezuela since the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro in January...

#venezuela #chevron #ShellOil #Oilsupply #oilproduction #venezuelaoiltrade #venezuelaoildeal #NicolasMaduro #trumpadministration
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2026/03/10/chevron-shell-closing-in-on-first-big-oil-deals-in-venezuela/89088886007/

The DROP Act Is An Unprecedented Weapon Of Financial Warfare Against Russia

The DROP Act Is An Unprecedented Weapon Of Financial Warfare Against Russia

By Andrew Korybko

Russia’s oil clients would be coerced under pain of sanctions into dumping it or scaling support for Ukraine if this bill passes.

Anti-Russian hawk Michael McCaul, who importantly serves as the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, announced the introduction in the House in early February of the bipartisan “Decreasing Russian Oil Profits” (DROP) Act that was earlier introduced in the Senate last December. If it passes, then Trump would have the power to impose targeted sanctions against anyone buying, importing, or facilitating the export of Russian oil, with exceptions only possible under one of three conditions.

The first is that the funds owed to Russia for such purchases must be credited to an account in their country, can only be used “to facilitate transactions in agricultural commodities, food, medicine, or medical devices”, and their government must commit to significantly reduce its purchase of Russian oil. The second is that such funds are used to either arm or rebuild Ukraine, while the third is that the government of their country provides significant economic or military support to Ukraine.

The first two conditions are unacceptable to Russia, but the third isn’t since it’s already selling oil to countries that significantly support Ukraine. The condition of providing significant economic and military support to Ukraine, which is an arbitrary distinction since no minimum level of each is described, in exchange for no targeted sanctions could lead to more arms and funds flowing into Ukraine. That could in turn impede the fulfilment of Russia’s goals and perpetuate the conflict unless Russia compromises.

Therein lies the purpose of the DROP Act: its authors envisage the US successfully coercing Russia’s remaining oil clients across the world into replacing their imports with other suppliers’ (since Russia wouldn’t realistically continue exports under the first two conditions) or scaling support for Ukraine. This makes it an unprecedented weapon of financial warfare, which could also be paired with Indian-like punitive tariffs if legal workarounds are employed, thus likely raising the number of parties that comply.

Market factors are the only real limits to this policy with respect to the targeted person’s/country’s exposure to the US’ financial market, which makes them susceptible to the DROP Act’s threatened sanctions, and the oil market’s ability to replace lost Russian exports. Therefore, even if most of Russia’s remaining oil clients are exposed to the US’ financial market, there might not be enough oil on the market for them to replace their imports so they might scale support for Ukraine instead of dump Russia.

That’s the most likely scenario amidst the oil price surge caused by the Third Gulf War and the US’ resultant flexibility in temporarily waiving its sanctions on India’s import of Russian oil, the primary target of its financial warfare in this regard thus far, for maintaining the viability of its partner’s market. The quid pro quo for sanctions waivers to other major trade partners could be a pledge to allocate some funds for arming Ukraine or rebuilding it once the oil crisis passes and they can more comfortably do so.

In any case, regardless of whether they dump Russia or scale support for Ukraine, the DROP Act is designed to create problems for Russia. They might not materialize as expected, or even at all in any significant way, but the takeaway is that this is a very hostile piece of legislation. Trump 2.0’s wielding of this unprecedented weapon of financial warfare against Russia, in the event that it passes (which isn’t guaranteed), could further complicate ties with Russia and possibly ruin their nascent rapprochement.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

Putin Might Finally Deal His Long-Awaited Deathblow To The EU Economy

Putin Might Finally Deal His Long-Awaited Deathblow To The EU Economy

By Andrew Korybko

He just ordered that some of Russia’s LNG exports to the EU be redirected to Asia, and if the EU doesn’t coerce Zelensky into giving him more of what he wants in Ukraine, then there’d be no reason for him to not cut off Russia’s exports to them entirely for catalysing a full-blown crisis.

The EU agreed late last year to end Russian LNG imports by 31 December 2026 and pipeline gas imports by 30 September 2027, with the possibility of extending the deadline till 31 October 2027 in case storage levels are below their required filling levels. This was done because “The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe”, ergo why it encouraged this decision so as to then monopolize the bloc’s energy market in tandem with its Qatari ally, another LNG superpower.

Everything changed with the Third Gulf War, which began with joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran and has since seen Iran retaliate against all of the Gulf Kingdoms on the basis that the US infrastructure on their territories is being used in attacks against the Islamic Republic. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed and the Gulf Kingdoms are scaling back energy production due to nearly reaching their storage capacity. Importantly, Qatar is also shutting down its gas liquefication, which will take weeks to restart.

It’s for these reasons that an energy crisis is expected which might surpass the one during COVID and even the 1973 Arab oil embargo in terms of its global disruption. With Gulf oil and gas pretty much out of the picture for now, the only realistic recourse for stabilizing the market is to return Russian resources thereto, which contextualizes why the US just temporarily waived sanctions on India’s purchase of Russian oil. The EU might also ramp up its gas imports from Russia ahead of its self-imposed deadlines.

With the impending global energy crisis in mind, Putin announced last week that he ordered his government to look into the possibility of redirecting European energy exports to Asia since they’re more profitable and won’t soon stop importing Russian energy completely like the EU will. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak then confirmed shortly thereafter that the decision was just made to redirect some (keyword) LNG exports from Europe to friendly countries such as India and China.

The scenario of Russia cutting off gas exports to the EU before the EU cuts off its gas imports from Russia is still on the table, but Putin seems more interested in leveraging this possibility in furtherance of his strategic goals than eschewing such an opportunity just to punish his Western adversaries. To that end, Novak’s confirmation that he decided to redirect some LNG exports from Europe to Asia can be seen as proof of Putin’s intent, but he’s also signalling interest in reconsidering if certain conditions are met.

These are the fulfilment of his goals in Ukraine: Russia’s control over the entirety of the disputed regions, Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and no foreign troops there after the conflict ends. He also wants to begin negotiations on reforming the European security architecture so that it’s less threatening to Russia and is suspected of wanting Zelensky not to run in Ukraine’s next elections. Not all might be achieved, but some likely will, though.

It’s at this moment when the EU is facing an economic crisis caused by the Third Gulf War taking the region’s energy exports offline that the bloc must decide whether it will coerce Zelensky to give Putin at least some of what he wants in exchange for him not redirecting LNG exports from them to Asia. The US might help them with this too so as to maintain the purchasing power of one of its largest markets. If they fail to do so, however, then Putin might finally deal a long-awaited deathblow to the EU economy.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.