ICYMI: Jon Ralston, based on the early vote, predicts #Harris will win #Nevada narrowly—will depend on late mail ballots in Clark County and for independents to lean Harris.

The race is extremely volatile though, so it would not be a shock if she did not win.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

#uspol #politics #uspolitics #election #trump #nv #earlyvote

Group update: since breaking our 4,000 followers goal last #EarlyVote deadline, we have not been pushing new followers but people, we are in the end game of the end game now.

We just about 20ish followers away from 4,100 followers and we want to be at maximum social reach this group will ever be at for Election day.

Boost to help share to all your pro-Harris friends! On Tuesday, 3 days from now, we want to make the biggest spash for getting out the vote that the #Fediverse has ever seen. Our early vote day was stunning and this one we hope to make some fediverse history in scale.

The tag will be #FederateTheVote and we want every single #KamalaHarris supporter we can get to join in. cc: @GottaLaff

There’s a lot of misinformed speculation being made off early voting.

Early voting can:

Cannibalize #Election Day vote, where it’s just people voting early, but not more people voting.

Change the Election Day vote, where people respond to the early voting news, affecting turnout.

There are too many variables, the margin of error ends up like 15% which makes it meaningless.

It can be right, but it’s not predictive.

#uspol #politics #uspolitics #earlyvote #voting #vote #harris #trump

Our record-breaking final #Georgia #EarlyVote turnout is 285,771 (so far), which is the bar chart on the very right of the chart in the attached image.

Core #Atlanta 🔵 metro counties over-performed and suburban/exurban underperformed, relative to previous days.

Total turnout is 3,995,938 / 55.2% turnout.

As of yesterday, the urban turnout (38.2%) has just about caught up with suburban (40.7%) and rural (41.7%) turnout, after some considerable deficits early in the early voting cycle.

And, the TargetSmart modeled party as of yesterday showed a delta between 🔵 Dems and 🔴 Republicans is down to 3.3 pct pt, LOWER than 2020's 5.5 pct pt difference.

I'd expect with today's EV turnout, those figures would continue to narrow to 🔵 's advantage.

There about 100k mail-in ballots left to return in GA, which will be rolling in from now until 11/5. Absentee voters can also vote in-person in lieu of returning their paper ballot.

A couple of less-reliable pollsters (image attached) also indicate that #Harris' momentum has shifted favorable in the past couple of days. Ultimately, A lot is counting on independent voters - whose preferences may determine the outcome of this race in Georgia.