self-fulfilling prophecy?
"AI takeover: Share of frontier tech market could quadruple by 2033"
says UN trade & development
And blockchain will explode from zero to 14%. Solar photovoltaic will disappear.
People around me quote this stuff.
What I ask myself: how good were the projections of #UNCTAD in the past?
In 2016 they wrote: "policy makers must prepare for disruption" ... "The market for the internet of things, for example, those objects and devices used in daily life, is expected to rise to $1.7 trillion in 2020 and to as much as $11.1 trillion by 2025"
Following their numbers, IoT reached 0.9 trillion in 2023.
Now I ask myself, how much of this value was created by re-labelling electronic devices as IoT.
https://unctad.org/news/ai-market-projected-hit-48-trillion-2033-emerging-dominant-frontier-technology
https://unctad.org/news/technology-opens-new-opportunity-policy-makers-must-prepare-disruption