Fina has intensified to Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone, giving how much land influence there is you'd expect it to be much more unhealthy, my hypothesis is that the SSTs are around 30ºC which is very warm and quite above the lower threshold of 26.5ºC, rains ahead are extracting energy from land and soil [little bit of the Brown Ocean Effect], since soil and air has far less heat than water it cools off quickly as it goes to latent heat of evaporation and is immediately pulled into the TC [Latent Heat is the true fuel that runs a TC], and there is a steady stream of high levels of moisture which is evident by high dew point temperature [dew point temperature is a measure of absolute humidity, its the temperature you need to cool the air without adding or removing moisture for that air to reach saturation or 100% relative humidity, so a dew point of 27ºC will mean fog/cloud, dew, and generally condensation will start form if you cool the air to 27ºC] - Nightmare Typhie



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The eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina is now clearly visible on Arafura radar, Darwin is now in the warning area, which means they're potentially going to see Cyclone conditions within 24 hrs [Hurricane or Tropical Storm force winds], the City of Darwin has Historical trauma when it comes to Tropical Cyclones being the location of landfall for Severe Tropical Cyclone Tracy December 25th, 1974 which made landfall early morning as a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone [Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale], or Category 3 Major Hurricane [Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale], this system is coming in from a different direction and is a lot weaker, it is more analagous to Tropical Cyclone Marcus 2018 which went through the city on a similar trajectory, however there probably will be residents of Darwin who remember Tracy and will be on edge - Nightmare Typhie



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So Tropical Cyclone Fina has been named and is now Category 1 intensity, the system became category 1 earlier than expected for the reasons I said were holding it back yesterday, so yesterday there were unfavourable windshear over the system, in the last 24hrs the shear has dropped leaving the system with a big buffer of favourable and neutral windshear conditions, with a shear tendency of -10 to -20 kts in the past 24hrs in the vacinity of TC Fina, also attatched are ensemble runs of the GFS and GEPS for TC Fina, taking both the GFS Ensemble and GEPS into account I think for now a lot of the potential tracks that keep it far offshore in tte Arafura and Timor Sea are less likely and ttat the system will likely remain closer to the coast, there is one outlier on GEPS that shows a Gulf landfall at 970-980hPa which would likely be around Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone, and its not the only track that landfalls at pressures that would suggest around Category 3 intensity, all of those tracks though sit at beyond the 72 hours mark which I give less weight to - Nightmare Typhie


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Looks like we're very close to having the first named Tropical Cyclone of the 2025-26 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season, also maybe the BoM can hire proof readers or something, some of the grammar of the technical bulletin remarks tripped me up, but its only 5kts off Category 1 Tropical Cyclone [Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale], which starts at 35kts, I haven't looked at CIMSS yet, BoM mispelt it in the technical bulletin, CIMSS being Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, which has a lot of good products for forecasting Tropical Cyclones - Nightmare Typhie

So after looking at CIMSS products my overall initial analysis is that Tropical Low/Depression 02U/97S is is an area of high upper divergence with big difference between low level convergence and upper divergence, more air is being removed from the location aloft than is incoming, this means that pressure has to drop, a sign it is intensifying, while it center is currently in a band of unfavourable windshear it is moving into an area of neutral to favourable windshear which also has a 24 hr tendency of lowering, vorticity is condensed and looks healthy at 850, 700, 500, and 200hPa, sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are above 26.5ºC threshold by a few degrees and while there is some dry air south over land and a little bit of dry air north its situated well and truely within a pocket of moist air, my take away is that right now the shear may be slowing its development, and that as it moves ENE into more favourable windshear conditions intensification may speed up, I think it is likely to at least attain Category 1 intensity, and probable that it will reach a mid Category 2 to threshold Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone intensity over the next 72hrs as it moves into that area of lower shear - Nightmare Typhie

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160 knots is about 184 mph. That's fucking insane. Latest NHC NWS forecaster discussion from 5 p.m. EDT. 🌀 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282052.shtml #wx #Melissa #Jamaica #tropicalStorms

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For the time being our primary account will be @theweathersystem@tenforward.social this will be the backup for now until we settle down #introduction - Updated: 2025-08-10

We're The Weather System (Athena's Realm System), We're Trans fem, and we're an officially diagnosed autistic, bipolar and dissociative identity disorder system, we a collection of various leftist, and believe strongly in queer, and neurodiversity rights movements, we view plurality in general as neurodivergence

Our pronouns are Su/Sudo/Suselves, however She/Her/Herselves, and They/Them/Theirselves

We are most likely to toot about #Medicine, with focus on #Genetics, #Epigenetics, #Bioinformatics, and #Neuroscience giving our focus back in uni was Genetics of Human Disease, and Neuroscience but we are likely to talk about a whole range of medical topics, besides medicine we are likely to toot about #meteorology and #geology, with specific interests in #SynopticMeteorology #TropicalCyclones / #Hurricanes / #Typhoons / #TropicalStorms, #ExtratropicalCyclones, #SubtropicalCyclones, and #Tornadoes, among other topic, and we may toot about #Geology, #Minerals, and #Vulcanology, and what ever else is on our mind, we collected #MyLittlePony and are a fan of every generation of MLP, also we collect #WildManes, as well as #MonsterHigh and #LittlestPetShop and Radioactive stuff and play #EliteDangerous

edit extra info: [Also to note we're storm chasers, so we may occasionally post photos and media from chases, our focus is usually on Tropical Cyclones within the Australian Region Basin with mainly focus on the Coral Sea, these will usually be marked with the Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane tags]

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Our system name is subject to change, it was previously the Athena's Realm System, however only one member, arguably two members made that decision on behalf of the entire system, without consulting us, so we're in the process of trying out system names to see which fits us best, but for the time being we will display both "Athena's Realm" and the current trialing system name so it is less confusing for those who know us by our old system name