El Nino expected to lessen the number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is predicting a slightly below average hurricane season because forecasters are anticipating the emergence of a disruptive El Nino climate pattern.
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https://globalnews.ca/news/11859264/el-nino-lessen-hurricane/

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has turned into a very angry swirl, currently a Category 5 on the Australian Scale [Category 4 Major Hurricane Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale], and still intensifying, 315km/h or 195mph gusts are likely in the eyewall, the up side is that region of Queensland is more sparsely populated [and actually falls outside our chase territory if it was south of Port Douglas we would have absolutely chased this one], but for the few towns in that region its gonna be a rough night as early morning landfall still looks like what the models have been showing, and its been rather consistant with lining up with models - Nightmare Typhie

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For latest updates to the Official BoM text advisory check: https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/specialised-forecasts-and-observations/tropical-cyclone

Hurricane Humberto and Potential Tropical Storm Imelda Complicate Forecasts #Science #EarthSciences #Meteorology #HurricaneForecast #TropicalStorms #WeatherPatterns
https://purescience.news/article?id=958226

Hurricane Humberto and Potential Tropical Storm Imelda Complicate Forecasts #Science #EarthSciences #Meteorology #HurricaneForecast #TropicalStorms #WeatherPatterns
https://purescience.news/article?id=958226

Fina has intensified to Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone, giving how much land influence there is you'd expect it to be much more unhealthy, my hypothesis is that the SSTs are around 30ºC which is very warm and quite above the lower threshold of 26.5ºC, rains ahead are extracting energy from land and soil [little bit of the Brown Ocean Effect], since soil and air has far less heat than water it cools off quickly as it goes to latent heat of evaporation and is immediately pulled into the TC [Latent Heat is the true fuel that runs a TC], and there is a steady stream of high levels of moisture which is evident by high dew point temperature [dew point temperature is a measure of absolute humidity, its the temperature you need to cool the air without adding or removing moisture for that air to reach saturation or 100% relative humidity, so a dew point of 27ºC will mean fog/cloud, dew, and generally condensation will start form if you cool the air to 27ºC] - Nightmare Typhie



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The eye of Tropical Cyclone Fina is now clearly visible on Arafura radar, Darwin is now in the warning area, which means they're potentially going to see Cyclone conditions within 24 hrs [Hurricane or Tropical Storm force winds], the City of Darwin has Historical trauma when it comes to Tropical Cyclones being the location of landfall for Severe Tropical Cyclone Tracy December 25th, 1974 which made landfall early morning as a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone [Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale], or Category 3 Major Hurricane [Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale], this system is coming in from a different direction and is a lot weaker, it is more analagous to Tropical Cyclone Marcus 2018 which went through the city on a similar trajectory, however there probably will be residents of Darwin who remember Tracy and will be on edge - Nightmare Typhie



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So Tropical Cyclone Fina has been named and is now Category 1 intensity, the system became category 1 earlier than expected for the reasons I said were holding it back yesterday, so yesterday there were unfavourable windshear over the system, in the last 24hrs the shear has dropped leaving the system with a big buffer of favourable and neutral windshear conditions, with a shear tendency of -10 to -20 kts in the past 24hrs in the vacinity of TC Fina, also attatched are ensemble runs of the GFS and GEPS for TC Fina, taking both the GFS Ensemble and GEPS into account I think for now a lot of the potential tracks that keep it far offshore in tte Arafura and Timor Sea are less likely and ttat the system will likely remain closer to the coast, there is one outlier on GEPS that shows a Gulf landfall at 970-980hPa which would likely be around Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone, and its not the only track that landfalls at pressures that would suggest around Category 3 intensity, all of those tracks though sit at beyond the 72 hours mark which I give less weight to - Nightmare Typhie


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Looks like we're very close to having the first named Tropical Cyclone of the 2025-26 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season, also maybe the BoM can hire proof readers or something, some of the grammar of the technical bulletin remarks tripped me up, but its only 5kts off Category 1 Tropical Cyclone [Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale], which starts at 35kts, I haven't looked at CIMSS yet, BoM mispelt it in the technical bulletin, CIMSS being Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, which has a lot of good products for forecasting Tropical Cyclones - Nightmare Typhie

So after looking at CIMSS products my overall initial analysis is that Tropical Low/Depression 02U/97S is is an area of high upper divergence with big difference between low level convergence and upper divergence, more air is being removed from the location aloft than is incoming, this means that pressure has to drop, a sign it is intensifying, while it center is currently in a band of unfavourable windshear it is moving into an area of neutral to favourable windshear which also has a 24 hr tendency of lowering, vorticity is condensed and looks healthy at 850, 700, 500, and 200hPa, sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are above 26.5ºC threshold by a few degrees and while there is some dry air south over land and a little bit of dry air north its situated well and truely within a pocket of moist air, my take away is that right now the shear may be slowing its development, and that as it moves ENE into more favourable windshear conditions intensification may speed up, I think it is likely to at least attain Category 1 intensity, and probable that it will reach a mid Category 2 to threshold Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone intensity over the next 72hrs as it moves into that area of lower shear - Nightmare Typhie

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160 knots is about 184 mph. That's fucking insane. Latest NHC NWS forecaster discussion from 5 p.m. EDT. 🌀 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282052.shtml #wx #Melissa #Jamaica #tropicalStorms

Tracking #hurricanes, #tropicalstorms, and threatening weather — in the #Caribbean, #Gulf, and #Atlantic — Big island or small island, we all matter! www.youtube.com/@MrWeatherman

Mr. Weatherman