The Weather SystemLooks like we're very close to having the first named Tropical Cyclone of the 2025-26 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season, also maybe the BoM can hire proof readers or something, some of the grammar of the technical bulletin remarks tripped me up, but its only 5kts off Category 1 Tropical Cyclone [Australian Tropical Cyclone Scale], which starts at 35kts, I haven't looked at CIMSS yet, BoM mispelt it in the technical bulletin, CIMSS being Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies, which has a lot of good products for forecasting Tropical Cyclones - Nightmare Typhie
So after looking at CIMSS products my overall initial analysis is that Tropical Low/Depression 02U/97S is is an area of high upper divergence with big difference between low level convergence and upper divergence, more air is being removed from the location aloft than is incoming, this means that pressure has to drop, a sign it is intensifying, while it center is currently in a band of unfavourable windshear it is moving into an area of neutral to favourable windshear which also has a 24 hr tendency of lowering, vorticity is condensed and looks healthy at 850, 700, 500, and 200hPa, sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are above 26.5ºC threshold by a few degrees and while there is some dry air south over land and a little bit of dry air north its situated well and truely within a pocket of moist air, my take away is that right now the shear may be slowing its development, and that as it moves ENE into more favourable windshear conditions intensification may speed up, I think it is likely to at least attain Category 1 intensity, and probable that it will reach a mid Category 2 to threshold Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone intensity over the next 72hrs as it moves into that area of lower shear - Nightmare Typhie
#TropicalStorms #Hurricanes #Typhoons #TropicalCyclones #Cyclones #ActiveTropicalCylones #CurrentTropicalCyclones #ActiveTropicalStorms #CurrentTropicalStorms
So after looking at CIMSS products my overall initial analysis is that Tropical Low/Depression 02U/97S is is an area of high upper divergence with big difference between low level convergence and upper divergence, more air is being removed from the location aloft than is incoming, this means that pressure has to drop, a sign it is intensifying, while it center is currently in a band of unfavourable windshear it is moving into an area of neutral to favourable windshear which also has a 24 hr tendency of lowering, vorticity is condensed and looks healthy at 850, 700, 500, and 200hPa, sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are above 26.5ºC threshold by a few degrees and while there is some dry air south over land and a little bit of dry air north its situated well and truely within a pocket of moist air, my take away is that right now the shear may be slowing its development, and that as it moves ENE into more favourable windshear conditions intensification may speed up, I think it is likely to at least attain Category 1 intensity, and probable that it will reach a mid Category 2 to threshold Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone intensity over the next 72hrs as it moves into that area of lower shear - Nightmare Typhie
#TropicalStorms #Hurricanes #Typhoons #TropicalCyclones #Cyclones #ActiveTropicalCylones #CurrentTropicalCyclones #ActiveTropicalStorms #CurrentTropicalStorms
