About metrics for measuring agreement on regression on continuous datasets:
Reasons to avoid R² and use RMSE instead: https://feat.engineering/03-Review_of_the_Modeling_Process.html#sec-reg-metrics
From Max Kuhn @topepo, Kjell Johnson (2026), "Feature Engineering and Selection: A Practical Approach for Predictive Models"
#prediction #dataDev #modelEvaluation #regression #modelling #linearRegression #modeling #probability #probabilities #statistics #stats #gotcha
#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20260313
This week the #puzzle is: Can You or “Cantor” You Find the Distance? #probabilities #infinity #coding #montecarlo #permutations #distance I start with a number line from 0 to 1, and then I remove the middle third. Then I take each of my remaining pieces (the segment from 0 to 1/3 and the segment from 2/3 […]
https://stuff.ommadawn.dk/2026/03/17/thisweeksfiddler-20260313/
#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20260306
This week the #puzzle is: Can You Shovel the Snow? #geometry #area #equidistant #probabilities #coding #montecarlo Two teams of shovelers plan to remove all the snow from a parking lot that’s shaped like a regular hexagon. Team Vertex initially places each of its six shovelers at the six corners of the lot. Meanwhile, Team Centroid […]
https://stuff.ommadawn.dk/2026/03/10/thisweeksfiddler-20260306/
#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20260220
This week the #puzzle is: Can the Archers Coordinate? #probabilities Two logicians are trying to earn a fabulous prize as a team. There are three targets, and, to win the prize, each logician must fire a single arrow and hit the same target as the other. Two of the targets are closer but are otherwise […]
https://stuff.ommadawn.dk/2026/02/24/thisweeksfiddler-20260220/
"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference"
by Florian Hartig (2019): https://theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/mediators-confounders-colliders-a-crash-course-in-causal-inference/
#offPolicy #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #ML #ecology #confounding
"y=Xβ+ϵ and the interpretation of the coefficients"
Derek L. Sonderegger (2020), Statistical Methods: https://bookdown.org/dereksonderegger/571/
#probabilities #stats #statistics #ML #linearRegression #interpretability #RStats
#ThisWeeksFiddler, 20260206
This week the #puzzle is: How Long Is the All-Star Streak? #math #probabilities #InfiniteSums #coding #MonteCarlo The Fiddler Basketball Association’s All-Star Game consists of two teams: “East” and “West.” Every year these two teams play a game, each with a 50 percent chance of winning that’s independent of the outcomes of previous years. Many, many […]
https://stuff.ommadawn.dk/2026/02/10/thisweeksfiddler-20260206/
Prediction markets coming up fast on he outside!
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket, have executed more than $800M of contracts tied to the Super Bowl - so far.
Compare that to $1.8B Americans are expected to wager on the game through regulated sports books. The $$ flowing to prediction markets is sucking up $$ that would likely otherwise have ended up on traditional gambling forums - Ouch!
The other interesting aspect, multi-person betting syndicates are now emerging as the way to leverage predication market betting at scale. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/super-bowl-lx-is-bringing-professional-gamblers-to-prediction-markets?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MDM4MzUwNSwiZXhwIjoxNzcwOTg4MzA1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQTBBR1NLR0lGUFgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0NTI0NTM5OEREMTU0RDE0Qjg2QjZBMUI5REIxQTBDQSJ9.niFjAVkJMhSZzNPmQI9dL2PsbdwlWD34YEB8T-LmNt8&leadSource=uverify%20wall #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #PolyMarket #SuperBowl #Betting #Gambling #SportsBooks #Odds #Wagers #Probabilities #Prediction
🧵 2/3: the first #AI #hallucination was entirely making up a French female rapper called 'Claudie Rappe", who apparently is "widely considered the most compelling feminist voice in contemporary French #rap.". Her name returned zero #Google search results.
The second was attributing a track to the wrong rapper, here to Zamdane, when it's Niska. #Gemini explained this as typical "proximity error' or 'confabulation'. As it says "I don’t "know" facts; I calculate #probabilities".
After rolling up 1992 Gamma World character and playing for a couple of hours, a lot of stats and mutant powers use 4d6-L which means roll six sided dice four times and drop the lowest.
But that stat is almost never used. Just like in 5E D&D. The stat that is used is the modifier.
So, that got me to thinking.
Couldn't you just roll up the modifier instead of rolling a stat and a modifier?
You could roll 4d6, but instead of adding them up...
A dice that is
1-2 = -1
3-4 = 0
5-6 = +1
(also known as a Fudge dice)
Drop the lowest.
Then, add up the -1, 0, +1 and that is your stat.
The probability distribution is not exact, but close.
(also, I half expect some game is already doing this as I rarely have an idea that is not already out there).
Eric Maugendre about data
Lise Andreasen
BGDon 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 👨💻
sheislaurence
randomwizard