@boud All but certainly a markup failure, as what's printed is "n2" rather than the more conventional "2n" when referencing multiplication.

Then there's the issue that Metcalfe's law overstates the value of network size. Odlyzko & Tilly suggest n * log(n) as a better approximation.

http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf

My own view is that value 1) increases at a decreasing rate as nodes grow (Odlyzko-Tilly) and 2) that there's a constant cost function per node, 'k':

V = n * (log(n) - k*n

This also gives us an upper bound on value-increasing network scale: where k >= log(n), the network can no longer grow effectively.

Corollaries:

• By reducing k, viable network size can be increased. This is effectively the same as improving network hygiene such that cost factors are reduced.
• Increasing k will reduce the total viable size of a network.
• A periodically variable k (whether regular or irregular) will result in a network with a variable maximum viable size.

But the key is If you want to make large networks less viable, increase their constant cost function.

Ping @pluralistic

@rysiek @eff

#MetcalfesLaw #NetworkValue #NetworkEffects #AndrewOdlyzko #OdlyzkoTilly #HygieneFactors #NetworkCostFunction #Scale

5. Risk and unintended consequences also tie the notions of #IndustrySectors (SIC / NAICS, etc.), and my #TechOntology, further together. That is, the ontology suggests much of the high-level industrial classification, with FIRE corresponding to information, management, and control, with their bearing on risk.

#HygieneFactors are the 9th category I'd identified (the last, as it happens -- the least obvious), a/k/a, least manifest, most latent), and concern emergent risks and mitigation.

6/

@munin @tinker Any thoughts to getting small business insurance, banks, etc., to take role in this? Those are forces which can role unanticipated costs into anticipated (and visible) costs, and press for best practices.

Great war story and methds. Plays into a lot of what I'm thinking about #GreshamsLaw, #UnanticipatedConsequences, #HygieneFactors, and #DelayedInformation realisation.