Mastodawn

I guess that would put a wrench into #BAU (#BusinessAsUsual), eh?

How Dangerous Would a #KesslerSyndrome Be for Satellites?

By Matthias Binder, M.Sc., July 28, 2025

"The sheer number of satellites orbiting Earth today is truly staggering. According to the European Space Agency, there are over 10,000 active and inactive satellites circling our planet, a number that has more than doubled in the past five years. The launch of mega-constellations, like #SpaceX’s Starlink, has poured thousands of new objects into #LowEarthOrbit (#LEO), making it a busy and hazardous neighborhood. This crowding means that even a single collision could set off a disastrous chain reaction. The buildup of #SpaceJunk is not just a minor inconvenience—it’s a ticking time bomb. As one NASA engineer put it recently, 'We’re reaching a point of no return if we don’t act soon.' The risk is not hypothetical; it’s a growing, daily concern for satellite operators worldwide.

Understanding the Kessler Syndrome Phenomenon

"Kessler Syndrome is a chilling scenario where space debris collides, creating more debris in a runaway cascade. First described by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, this theoretical chain reaction would make certain orbits so littered with debris that satellites could no longer operate safely. In recent interviews, space experts warn that every new collision increases the risk of triggering such a syndrome. The latest studies from 2024 highlight that the density of objects in popular orbits is fast approaching critical thresholds. 'It’s like a cosmic traffic jam,' one astrophysicist said, 'except every fender bender makes the road even more dangerous.' This phenomenon isn’t just science fiction—it’s a looming threat that could upend modern life.

What Happens During a Debris Cascade?

"When two objects collide in orbit, the result is a spray of thousands of new fragments. Each of these fragments can travel at speeds greater than 27,000 kilometers per hour. Even something as small as a paint fleck has the potential to puncture or destroy a satellite at these velocities. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network is currently tracking more than 36,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters, but the real number of smaller, untrackable fragments is believed to be in the millions. The more debris there is, the higher the chance that satellites will be hit, creating even more debris. This is the catastrophic feedback loop that defines Kessler Syndrome, and the consequences are almost impossible to contain once it begins.

"Satellites form the backbone of today’s global communications, navigation, and weather monitoring. A significant increase in debris would put all of these services at risk. The International Space Station has had to maneuver multiple times in the past year to avoid potential collisions with debris, and commercial satellites have reported dozens of close calls. A sudden #DebrisCascade could render some orbits completely unusable, especially in low Earth orbit, where most satellites operate. Operators would face higher insurance premiums, more frequent maneuvers, and the very real possibility of losing multi-million-dollar hardware. The threat is so severe that, according to the Secure World Foundation, some satellite companies are already reconsidering future launches into crowded orbits.

"The satellite industry is a powerhouse, with a market value exceeding $400 billion. If Kessler Syndrome were triggered, the immediate cost of lost satellites could run into the tens of billions. But the real financial blow would come from the collapse of satellite-dependent industries. Think about GPS navigation, financial transactions, television, and disaster forecasting—all could be crippled. Insurance companies are already hiking premiums for satellites operating in high-risk orbits. A major debris event could cause a ripple effect, leading to job losses and economic instability in sectors that rely on reliable satellite data. As one economist recently said, 'A single catastrophic event in space could shatter global markets overnight.' "

#KesslerEffect #GrindingHalt #GPS #Satellites #LandLines #Fiber

DoomsdaysCW Feb 9, 2023

The Looming Digital Meltdown

by Zeynep Tufekci, January 2018

"We have built the digital world too rapidly. It was constructed layer upon layer, and many of the early layers were never meant to guard so many valuable things: our personal correspondence, our finances, the very infrastructure of our lives. Design shortcuts and other techniques for optimization — in particular, sacrificing security for speed or memory space — may have made sense when computers played a relatively small role in our lives. But those early layers are now emerging as enormous liabilities. The vulnerabilities announced last week have been around for decades, perhaps lurking unnoticed by anyone or perhaps long exploited."
#InfoSec #CyberWar #CyberAttack #Cyber #GrindingHalt #Luddite #PaperTrail

Opinion | The Looming Digital Meltdown

Modern computing security is like a flimsy house that needs to be fundamentally rebuilt.

DoomsdaysCW Feb 9, 2023

A Catastrophic Mutating [Cyber] Event Will Strike the World in 2 Years, Report Says

by Tim Newcomb, February 9, 2023

"'The most striking finding that we’ve found,' WEF managing director Jeremy Jurgens said during a presentation highlighting the WEF Global Security Outlook Report 2023, 'is that 93% of cyber leaders, and 86% of cyber business leaders, believe that the #geopolitical instability makes a catastrophic #cyber event likely in the next two years. This far exceeds anything that we’ve seen in previous surveys.'

"Add in the extreme unpredictability of these events—Jurgens cited a #cyberattack recently aimed at shutting down Ukranian military abilities that unexpectedly also closed off parts of electricity production across Europe—and the global challenges are only growing."
#InfoSec #GrindingHalt #Luddite

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/a-catastrophic-mutating-event-will-strike-the-world-in-2-years-report-says/ar-AA16OFT3?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=89315f394b4e464f93843d15da5e8d6f