The #Wikipedia page for the disputed airstrike at Al Ahli hospital is a disaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion#order_of_death_counts_in_stats_box

Starting with the death counts being in what appears to be ascending order?

Despite the references for the lower counts BOTH mentioning the 471 body count from #GazaMOH and mentioning it more prominently then the lower numbers.

The 250 figure is particularly ridiculous.

#Gaza #IOF #Ahli_Arab_Hospital #AlAhli #AlAhliHospital #Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion

#غزة #مجزرة_مستشفى_المعمداني #مستشفى_المعمداني #ويكيبيديا

Talk:Al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion - Wikipedia

One way plausible way the lie could be on the #Gaza side is if they are massively and systematically UNDER reporting combatant deaths.

The #IDF are under reporting wounded dramatically according to #Israeli hospitals - I should find that news report, it's either #TimesOfIsrael or #Haaretz

This is very common in #war and would be easier than faking extra deaths, they'd just leave people listed as "missing in action" and or just not mention them at all.

Delaying is easier than hiding those deaths forever too. During #Covid we saw lots of strategies to downplay deaths, like "we need to get family consent first" (then do nothing to actually obtain that) or in this case there is the added option of "military secret".

#GazaMOH fully admit the list and count isn't comprehensive.

The #Gaza Ministry Of Health have a track record of reliability, but the militant wing of #Hamas do put out some creative numbers, or just word things to be very open to (mis) interpretation. Like "100 tanks damaged or destroyed" probably means "we scracted the paint work on 99 of them"?

Faking 20,000 deaths would be tricky, but covering up a a few thousand would be easier for the militant wing to hide from the MOH or pressure the MOH to go along with, particularly if it's a delay and feet dragging.

That would mean most of those reported 7000 militants killed are ADDITIONAL to the total the reported by #GazaMOH and the true TOTAL death toll in Gaza is A LOT HIGHER than the Gaza MOH report.

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Allegedly, most of those 20,000 reported dead have names and Israeli ID numbers?

And a lot have been recognised by #diaspora relatives.

For the deaths of women and children in #Gaza to be over reported by much #GazaMOH would have to be faking the deaths of vast numbers of real people who have documented identities (including in Israel) and real people who know them.

#WomenAndChildren

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Even if they include all their local allies or recent surges in recruitment that can't be more than double.

In the past the demographics reported by #GazaMOH have been less reliable than the totals, but not by ENOUGH to make 7000 #militants "neutralised" plausible (from memory, totals have been about 3% of and demographics up to 10% when compared to independent counts).

#AdultMaleCivilians #WarInGAZA

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There were airstrikes on Al-Shifa hospital on 27 October … but there's been airstrikes on hospitals most days? So possibly meaningless?

When the #IDF say Al-Shifa had a #HamasBase in it … do they mean a government office that was reporting on civilian deaths?

#Hamas were more than a decade over due for an election, which is … not great … but still, a lot of "Hamas" is not military.

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#27October #AlShifa #GazaMOH #GazaData #Entity
#حماس #غزة

Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.

Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.

🔗 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext 🔗 the Lancet article this data is from

It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.

🔗 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9111161/ 🔗 "Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data" Dmitry Kobak

This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.

It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and
got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)

But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).

But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of Gaza began?

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#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet

#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH

#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru #UNRWA

#فلسطین #فلسطين #غزة #حرب