Mastodawn

This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-why-governor-dunleavys

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 9h ago

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The oil windfall is burning a hole in #AKLEG's pocket, the SFIN's proposed POMV draw reductions are addressing the wrong problem & why none of #AKLNG's numbers explain the volumetric property tax rate. https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-3302026

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 10h ago

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: https://bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

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Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue

In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

The Alaska Landmine

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 12h ago

The reason we have a hard time becoming excited about #AKLNG. Even under best-case ("base") cost assumptions, price levels exceed projected (futures market) JKM levels. Materially worse at more realistic cost levels. #akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 13h ago

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.34% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 16.96% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.73% v PFC 12.43%

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 13h ago

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $3 (+$132mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$69mil)
#akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 15h ago

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/75% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -5kbd (-1%) v. F'cast.

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AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

This Week's Column| Contrary to what some might expect, fully priced, Gov. Dunleavy's proposed sales tax takes less from middle & lower-income Alaska families than Rep. Galvin's proposed "education tax." We explain why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-why-governor-dunleavys

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

Exports as a %ANS| Due to COVID, a material share of ANS was exported to Asian (primarily Chinese) mkts from 2Q 2020 to 1Q 2022. However, from shortly after the start of the Ukraine War (Apr22), most has gone to the USWC, w/ only sporadic dels (CY26 YTD: 0%) to Asia. #akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

USWC Supply Chart| Monthly as data becomes available from EIA we take a look at supply sources into PADD V (USWC) refineries. #akleg

YTD (thru Jan), Alaska running ⬆️ 2.2% v. 2019 USWC mkt share (21.1% v 18.9%), but due to lower demand, vols ⬇️ 20kbd (428kbd). US sources 40% of total USWC supplies.