Gaza Ministry of Health looks like they might be are UNDER reporting war deaths.

Gaza's war death stats look somewhat like Russian #COVID data, which is to say, they look suspicious, but they definitely DON'T look like an over count.

🔗 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext 🔗 the Lancet article this data is from

It zig zags up, looking like real world data, then on about 27 October 2023 it simultaneously drops AND shows possible under-dispersion (a statistical term meaning the number per day is suspiciously consistent). It looks a bit like when #Russia were refusing to report more than 800 COVID deaths per day, but it' isn't quite as severe.

🔗 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9111161/ 🔗 "Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data" Dmitry Kobak

This is unfortunately unlikely to be a real reduction because, despite reported war deaths in the general population halving, deaths of UN Workers increase.

It is possible the Government of Gaza are deliberately under-reporting deaths, exactly like Russia were during the pandemic. (Realistically if you started - or massively escalated - a war, and
got tens of thousands of people massacred by a much-better-armed enemy, you might not fully admit to how bad things were getting?)

But in this case I think it's more likely that deaths per day have exceeded Gaza's capacity to report them. Despite the constant accusations, the numbers Gaza's MOH are releasing are not just an estimate, they are only the named identified dead, they exclude anyone trapped under rubble and possibly those who ended up buried in mass graves (mild "citation needed" but I've heard that from moderately reliable sources and I'll believe it till I see a more reliable source refute it).

But it doesn't just hit a ceiling, something very suddenly goes wrong with their data reporting on 27 October 2023 (+/- 2 days) … I've not yet found what this corresponds to, but it might be around the time the #IDF ground invasion of Gaza began?

(cc my other profiles @kirt @kirt @kirt for the notifications)

#data #statistics #PublicHealth #PublicHealthData #Lancet #TheLancet

#Gaza #GazaGenocide #GazaMassacre #GazaMOH

#Russia799 #враньё799 #враньё #799враньё #CovidRussia #Covid19ru #UNRWA

#فلسطین #فلسطين #غزة #حرب