an eye opening thread of how the pandemic isn't over yet. tl;dr:
1) vaccinate
2) mask up
3) don't gather with more than 10 folks until mid-Jan
https://mastodon.world/@michael_hoerge[email protected]/111603451995732337
2/ The winter peak should arrive between Jan 3 and Jan 17. The model estimates a peak of 1.7 to 2.2 million infections per day. If unlucky, 1 in 20 people will be infectious, and it will be the 2nd largest wave. If lucky, more like 1 in 30, and the 4th largest wave. Consider optimistic and pessimistic scenarios not captured by these models. Optimism: A rosy scenario would be that the peak occurs a week earlier at a slightly lower level (1.6-1.7 infections/day like last winter or the preceding summer). The level of acceleration in transmission argues against that, in favor of a higher peak, but Biobot is reporting some unusual regional variation (much lower transmission in the U.S. South and West). Moreover, historical patterns of how transmission should or should not accelerate cannot account for existing variation on population-level immunity due to variation in prior exposure history, recency of vaccination, and how well the current vaccine matches disseminating subvariants relative to prior vaccines. Finally, Biobot wastewater sites could be overreporting, and levels could get corrected downward. Each of these factors is highly plausible, but the “rosy” scenario remains quite bleak and suggests the pandemic remains far from “over.” Pessimism: Also, consider more pessimistic scenarios. Current vaccination rates remain extremely low, and several other countries are reporting atypically high acceleration via wastewater data. Placing plausible hypothetical values in the model, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the U.S. reaches 2.5 million infections/day. Sometimes, people draw graphs showing a continued acceleration like BA.1, but such models seem to reflect imagination rather than data. The data do not suggest an evidence for a BA.1-level surge.
while Twitter's publicly stated policy may have been lifted (with a sham tweet from musk that he is apologetic), the truth is that Twitter is still not letting you post mastodon urls - including short urls.
the only way out - take a screenshot of your mastodon url / profile and tweet it.
and just like that, paul graham, the defender of one and only idiot, got SUSPENDED on twitter.
his crime: he said his website has his mastodon account: @paulg
this is a real tweet from Elon Musk, which he deleted later.
credits: https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/1603909564197371904
twitter has now officially transformed to the worst platform out there in terms of free speech.
all attempts to share mastodon urls on Twitter is no longer possible (as tweet urls or in your profile) this type of anti-competitive practice has never been seen, anywhere, so publicly.
Many of us have moved on from tracking COVID, but a reminder that we are looking at a sharp spike over the coming couple months. In fact, it has already begun (see graphs below).
If you can, please get the new COVID-19 Bivalent boosters, which reportedly show a stronger immune response for Omicron sub-lineages, per both Pfizer and Moderna. Bonus points to add a Flu shot on your vaccination trip
Also, please mask up. For you, your family and your friends.
Arman Shuraev, a journalist from Kazakhstan rebuking the Russian ambassador. must watch.
back story: Russia is now trying to set it's eyes on other neighbors to get a win and save face (Kazakhstan was moving tanks to the border last week to prepare just in case).
credits: Anton Gerashchenko https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en
