Simzone – ꟻryol

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

2/ The winter peak should arrive between Jan 3 and Jan 17. The model estimates a peak of 1.7 to 2.2 million infections per day. If unlucky, 1 in 20 people will be infectious, and it will be the 2nd largest wave. If lucky, more like 1 in 30, and the 4th largest wave. Consider optimistic and pessimistic scenarios not captured by these models. Optimism: A rosy scenario would be that the peak occurs a week earlier at a slightly lower level (1.6-1.7 infections/day like last winter or the preceding summer). The level of acceleration in transmission argues against that, in favor of a higher peak, but Biobot is reporting some unusual regional variation (much lower transmission in the U.S. South and West). Moreover, historical patterns of how transmission should or should not accelerate cannot account for existing variation on population-level immunity due to variation in prior exposure history, recency of vaccination, and how well the current vaccine matches disseminating subvariants relative to prior vaccines. Finally, Biobot wastewater sites could be overreporting, and levels could get corrected downward. Each of these factors is highly plausible, but the “rosy” scenario remains quite bleak and suggests the pandemic remains far from “over.” Pessimism: Also, consider more pessimistic scenarios. Current vaccination rates remain extremely low, and several other countries are reporting atypically high acceleration via wastewater data. Placing plausible hypothetical values in the model, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the U.S. reaches 2.5 million infections/day. Sometimes, people draw graphs showing a continued acceleration like BA.1, but such models seem to reflect imagination rather than data. The data do not suggest an evidence for a BA.1-level surge.