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Pavel Podvig May 2, 2024

ArmsControlNow May 2, 2024

In his cover feature for #ArmsControlToday this month,
@russianforces researcher Pavel Podvig suggests that despite the problems facing nuclear arms control today, the system is not entirely broken.

Read "Restoring Russian-U.S. Arms Control" at https://www.ArmsControl.org/Today.

Arms Control Association | The authoritative source on arms control since 1971.

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Pavel Podvig Sep 26, 2023

@javbw @kevinrothrock Yes, of course, the fewer the better. Zero is a nice number. What I was trying to say is that getting more doesn't really change your policy options or those of your opponents

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Pavel Podvig Sep 26, 2023

@larthallor Then the question is what is the minimum second strike capability and in what ways it matters. People tend to think about these things in terms of "throw-weight advantage after a third strike", which is very wrong.

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Pavel Podvig Sep 25, 2023

@larthallor I'd say the question here is why people believe that numbers do matter. Do you have a good answer to that?

Pavel Podvig Sep 25, 2023

Just a thought about arms control. Why does it matter if China has 1500 nuclear warheads (and not 400+)? Or that the US has 3500 (and not 1550)? Russia has 2000 non-strategic warheads or 20? Nothing good, of course, but it's not really important. Numbers don't matter.

Pavel Podvig Jul 28, 2023

Moritz Kütt Jul 28, 2023

A short piece on nuclear sharing with @russianforces and Zia Mian:
https://thebulletin.org/2023/07/bombs-away-confronting-the-deployment-of-nuclear-weapons-in-non-nuclear-weapon-countries/#post-heading
We summarize historical cases of nuclear sharing, its current status - including 🇷🇺 nuclear weapon deployment in Belarus, and suggest the issue as an agenda item for the NPT Review Cycle

Bombs away: Confronting the deployment of nuclear weapons in non-nuclear weapon countries

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty members meet in Vienna next week to begin another cycle of assessing progress on nonproliferation and disarmament. A contentious part of the NPT debate will likely involve the NPT countries that do not have nuclear weapons but host nuclear weapons belonging to the United States or Russia, which recently announced it would station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Pavel Podvig Jul 2, 2023

@Supercola It's in the next sentence

Pavel Podvig Jul 2, 2023

There are many reasons a statement like this would be extremely unhelpful. For one, an accident at NPP and nuclear use are very different events, physically and politically. If concerns about a provocation are legitimate, there are better ways to prevent it. It is important to make it clear that very much the only way a significant radiological event can happen at ZNPP is if it is deliberately created from the inside

Pavel Podvig Jul 1, 2023

My Twitter to Mastodon post doesn't seem to be working. But I will try to either post things here or duplicate my Twitter posts manually.

Pavel Podvig Jan 30, 2023

RT @[email protected]

Empire and colonies: an introduction

1. Russia imposes Communism in Czechia

2. Making it difficult to impossible to function without paying lip service to the Communist shibboleths

3. Now Russians are criticising Czechs for having paid the lip service to the said shibboleths https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1619767757360492545

🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1620083362491936770

Pavel Podvig on Twitter

“Petr Pavel is the embodiment of conformism - from the communist party to NATO HQ - and yet he feels he can lecture Navalny about nationalism. Pathetic.”

Twitter