There's a lot to think about, with the benefit of hindsight. Surely, there's a lot of reflection for the intelligence community, and the policy-makers who had access to intelligence.

But analytically, I struggle to reach clear conclusions in terms of "lessons learned" for external observers and area experts. [8/8]

There's a whole line of criticism associated with the unfortunate label of "Westsplaining" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westsplaining - blaming Western-European analysts for ignoring voices from the region and downplaying Russia's threat.

Yet, in this most momentous of times, listening to voices from Ukraine was a major contributing factor leading observers such as myself to downplay the risks that an invasion was forthcoming. [6/8]