But here's the thing, it doesn't even really work like that anymore. It's as if the lottery organizers said "let's only sell 10% of our lottery tickets to the general public, and the other 90% will be given away exclusively to the family members of previous winners, for free." Since that 90% is divided up among a much smaller group of people, they have a much better chance at winning. Suddenly, all that work the unknown musician does to improve their chances doesn't count for as much.

Let's say you're a musician- in this analogy doing things like practicing often, honing your craft, working your way up in the local music scene, diligently promoting yourself, making connections with touring artists to get gigs in other cities, and so forth is the equivalent of buying extra lottery tickets to slightly improve your chances of winning, but finding the right combination of circumstances to propel you to mainstream success is still pure luck.